If America collapses

In the era of globalization, you should not rejoice at the problems of a neighbor. It is better to think together how to solve these problems

Recently, in connection with the trade war between Washington and Beijing, they increasingly began to think about what would happen if suddenly China gets rid of American securities and stops investing in US public debt. The natural assumption is that America will become bad from this, China will be able to use money for its own needs, and Russia will be able to rejoice at the problems of its enemy, although it will not receive any material benefits from this. Alas, all these assumptions are nothing more than a myth. China, with a similar development of events, may have more problems than the United States. Yes, and we will get such a headache that it will not seem a little.

Suppose the Americans are soberly perceived by the fact that the world will now credit them less, and will tighten their belts in order to reduce their public debt pyramid. Tighten the belts is a reduction in consumption. The state that cannot lend new money in the financial market, but is forced to pay for old debts, inevitably reduces expenses. It does not matter what specific expenses it will reduce, in any case, the solvency of the population will decrease. If they cut the budget with the Pentagon, part of the people in the enterprises of the military -industrial complex will lose their jobs. If social expenses cut down, the purchasing power of unemployed, pensioners and poor families will greatly decrease, and in addition, teachers and university teachers will be lost. And in any case, some part of the officials will be fired.

A decrease in the purchasing power of Americans will immediately hit the market of Chinese goods, which are sold a lot in America. Do not think that China will be easy to quickly find a different sales market instead of the richest country in the world. Most likely, many Chinese enterprises and workers in this country will go bankrupt without work. Well, it is clear that the crisis in the country, which is a worldwide workshop, will greatly strike at oil and gas prices. The demand for energy will decrease.

First of all, Russia will suffer from this. Once again, the ruble will collapse, the state budget will lose part of the income, the solvent demand will decrease, and part of the domestic enterprises will close.

Perhaps, at all, the gas pipeline that Russia is building in the direction of China is not needed at all.

Alas, in the world economy now absolutely everything is interconnected. If in America they sneezed, then in another part of the world they can get the flu from this. Moreover, if a decrease in income in the United States at the political level turns out only by the defeat of the ruling party, then there can be more problems in China. With a low standard of living of the Chinese, the loss of work can turn into a real poverty for millions of citizens. And since in this country there is no democracy as a mechanism for the release of steam from under the boiler cover, it is difficult to say what social explosions it all turns out. It is difficult to say whether the political system based on the outdated communist ideology will survive and in no way related to market Chinese realities. And if suddenly a nationalist replacement of communist ideology replaces, will Peking raise the question of territorial claims to Russia, which have existed in China for many years?

This is the so far a relatively civilized option for solving the problem of the American public debt. But it may be non -cycling. If investments in the public debt are sharply reduced, and the American authorities will not find a way to tighten the belt, then the debt pyramid can collapse at some point. However, it is unlikely that the collapse of the pyramid will occur in the literal sense, as it was in August 1998. After all, the Americans can print dollars to support their own public debt. Of all the non -cycling methods of solving the problem, this is the easiest. But, alas, very destructive.

The acceleration of monetary emissions in this case will probably result in a fall in the dollar in relation to other currencies. On the one hand, this will cause all the same consequences mentioned above. Just a decrease in the solvency of Americans will not occur due to a direct loss of income, but from their depreciation. On the other hand, this will cause the depreciation of dollar savings around the world. Including with us, in Russia. We will greatly suffer not only from the fall in oil prices and the associated reduction in the ruble to solid currencies, but also from the fall of one of those solid currencies that we are used to investing in order to avoid crisis problems.

And these are all only those consequences that can more or less clearly imagine, knowing how the modern world works. But an economic crisis of this scale can generate completely unforeseen consequences. Increased often breeds authoritarian regimes. And new autocracies often unleash new wars. And if the world is suddenly plunged into a big war, it is unlikely that it will bypass our country. In general, we can say that with globalization, all people in the world are interested in maintaining economic stability. Everyone depends on each other. Everyone is connected with each other as sellers and buyers, as lenders and borrowers. Therefore, do not rejoice at the problems of a neighbor. It is better to think together how to solve these problems.