Last week, the US tested a Tomahawk cruise missile from a land-based launcher at a range exceeding 500 km, i.e. previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which went down in history on August 2. In response to this, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave instructions to take symmetrical measures, i.e., apparently, a domestic cruise missile will soon be tested in Russia at the same range – apparently, also initially “sea-based”, like the Tomahawk, the Kalibr missile.

Russian officials were quick to point out that such a quick test of the missile indicates that work on it had been going on for a long time, and that accusations of Russian violations of the INF Treaty were just a pretext for the US to destroy the treaty. Funding for the development of a land-based version of the Tomahawk was indeed opened by Congress more than a year ago, but it was so insignificant that the missile was launched from a semi-home-made launcher. It can be assumed that the Russian response will be even cheaper.

It is important to note that this American test does not pose any existential threat, and the deployment of real launchers with cruise missiles in Asia (which the Pentagon dreams of) and even in Europe (which is not planned yet) will not be such. It does not matter where the cruise missile comes from - from a ship, a land-based installation or an aircraft. And NATO has long had an overwhelming advantage over Russia in sea-based cruise missiles in Europe, as well as in the quantity and quality of strike aircraft. Moreover, Finland has American air-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 500 km (i.e., going beyond the defunct INF Treaty), and Poland will soon have them.

But if the US does deploy cruise missiles on the ground in Europe, Russia may be able to save a lot by deploying similar missiles in response. After all, the small missile ships of the newest Project 22800, which are a real dream of reason and are being built in response to NATO's superiority in medium-range sea- and air-based missiles, carry only eight Kalibr missiles. And these ships cost 9 billion rubles apiece under the latest contract - as weapons for an entire brigade of land-based missiles of the same class, which exceeds the power of a combined salvo by about an order of magnitude. For comparison: about the same amount (about 11 billion rubles) is the total cost of repair and maintenance of roads in the Tver region this year, and this is perhaps the most successful year in terms of financing road works in this Russian region.

So it is too early to talk about the beginning of an arms race. Nevertheless, the tests of this missile are, of course, bad news for all supporters of arms control, since they demonstrate the determination of the former INF Treaty participant to destroy the treaty in practice. The deployment of such missiles in Asia can significantly poison the atmosphere in this region. It seems that the Trump administration does not diverge from its words and deeds, which means that there is a very high probability of the destruction of the last Russian-American arms control treaty, the START, and then, if Donald Trump is re-elected, multilateral treaties such as the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty may begin to crumble.

Where will the rocket come from?