No-Deal Brexit Is Off the Table

In just his second month as prime minister, Boris Johnson has suffered a defeat that will put an end to his main goal: Brexit at any cost. The British parliament has passed a bill preventing Johnson from taking the country out of the EU on October 31 without a deal with the EU. In response, the prime minister will try to force an early general election, but even the Labour Party, which is interested in them, has refused to support it.

What's happened

• The House of Commons has passed the bill banning a no-deal Brexit at its third reading by 327 votes to 299.
• A new political crisis in Britain began yesterday, September 3, when the Conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons after MP Phillip Lee announced his defection to the Liberal Democrats. Immediately after, Johnson's opponents (both Labour and Conservatives who oppose a no-deal Brexit) voted to strip the government of the right to set the agenda and tabled a bill by MP Hillary Benn to ban a "no-deal Brexit". Johnson threatened Conservatives who supported the bill with losing their seats on the party lists at the next election, but it did not work.
• The essence of Benn's project is simple - it obliges the prime minister to ask the EU for negotiations on a Brexit delay until January 31 if he cannot agree with Brussels on the terms of the divorce by October 31.
• October 31 is the current deadline for Britain to leave the European Union. Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, agreed on the terms of the divorce with the EU, but the British parliament has refused to approve them three times. EU officials have refused to reconsider their terms.
• The main contradiction is the status of Northern Ireland: the EU insists on not dividing Ireland into two parts with a new customs border, but in this case this border will inevitably arise between the British Isles and Northern Ireland itself - and this is unacceptable for the UK, since it will undermine its unity. We described this conflict in detail here .

What's next?

• Johnson called the project “Jeremy Corbyn’s capitulation bill” and said the decision would force Britain to “come crawling to Brussels on its knees” and beg European bureaucrats for a delay or new terms for the divorce. Key negotiations with the EU will take place at a summit in Brussels on October 17-18. Johnson is confident that EU officials will make concessions if they are confident of Britain’s intention to leave the EU on October 31 under any circumstances. Now that plan has failed.
• After the Commons approves Penn's bill, it will go to the House of Lords for approval. The FT believes that the Conservatives in the upper house may try to delay its passage, but they have little chance of stopping it.
• In response to the demarche of MPs, Johnson is trying to achieve the announcement of an early parliamentary election. The vote on this issue will take place this evening, but it is clear that it will be unsuccessful for Johnson - the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, said that his party will vote against, and without it the Conservatives will not be able to gain the necessary 2/3 of the votes.

What do I get out of this?

Today's vote temporarily removes the risk of a no-deal Brexit, which seemed very likely after Johnson was appointed prime minister. The British pound rose by 1% today on the news of the Penn bill after a long decline. A no-deal Brexit would be good news for the British economy (the government estimated the negative impact of such a scenario at £250 billion and a 10% drop in the country's GDP over 15 years), and for all of us - a British collapse would certainly make a serious contribution to the looming recession, which would echo in Russia with falling oil prices and other problems.