The elbow is again

So, the election of the Novosibirsk mayor, which can be called the most democratic in the country, ended. The victory of Anatoly's elbow, at first glance, looks crushing. Still - more than 50 percent against 18 and a half of the nearest competitor and its own 43 five years ago. But everything is not so simple. Let's figure it out.

First of all, it is worth noting that the “menu” in the current elections was more than diverse: 15 candidates (the registration of one candidate was canceled in connection with the “disqualification” at the federal level of the party that nominated him, and another starred in shortly before the date of the elections) represented almost the entire range of both the All -Russian and local political palette. It looked amazing-especially against the backdrop of the strict Moscow-paternal "laid out", ships and other manifestations of "sovereign democracy." In Novosibirsk, you won’t believe it, even one of the associates of Alexei Navalny, local activist Sergei Boyko, has allowed to participate in the elections. Moreover, they gave him the opportunity to register a self-nominated man and, in general, did not interfere with the leading campaign: the “cubes” of the candidate stood throughout the city, and his activity on paper and on the Internet was almost the most noticeable.

Yes, this is a victory, but it is very likely that it is the low turnout and non -participation in the elections that will give Novosibirsk, when it is necessary, the occasion and the opportunity to say: "We did not choose you! You can’t imagine us!"

At the same time, only three were admitted to the elections (they refused the most inaccurate applicants for the mayor’s post - there were only three of them), obviously, first of all, the current mayor, Anatoly Locky. Recall that since the summer of last year, when the current mayor of the winning refused (evil languages say that not without pressure from the presidential administration) from participation in the struggle for the post of governor of the region, a kind of “conspiracy” has developed in the power. In response to the service of the Governor-Varanga rendered last year (he is in Novosibirsk Vologda, and well not from the presidential guard), his Anatoly Lokot led his entire campaign, if not with the support of the authorities, then with an obviously issued “carte blanche”.

After a series of rather large managerial failures (the city is discussing the future increase in tariffs again, the “garbage reform” bends, the townspeople complain about many other communal problems) Anatoly Evgenievich’s position is unlikely to strengthen. And therefore, the nomination of many candidates gave the city authorities the opportunity not only to “play democracy”, but also to perform a rather simple operation to “spray” the voices. Its essence lies in the fact that with a large number of applicants for a chair, even with the smallest ratings, the candidate whose electorate will show a greater cohesion (in the language of political strategists, it is called "nuclear"). And it doesn’t matter how your opponents will vote (on the contrary, you need to give them the opportunity to vote “for every taste”, pull out a protest), the main thing is that your conditional 15% are unshakable. Of course, this is possible only with elections to one tour.

The current mayor initially tried to "consolidate the" most ardent supporters of the "communist idea" (having erected a monument to Stalin and arranged a "frostbitten" Stalin festival in the main city square). But then quite sharply softened the rhetoric. Apparently, he realized that it is much more profitable to “dry the turnout” for victory than playing in the fundamental “Stalinist” and displaying the most “frantic” to the elections.

In addition, the list contained so many free or involuntary "spoilers" of the current mayor that the head from them at some point went around. In addition to the obligatory candidate from the LDPR, the suddenly resigned Vice-mayar Daniyar Safiullin, the TV presenter of the RBC television channel Julia Sapina, a man named Khayurov and with an exotic one for the Siberian width by the name of Muhammad-Alinovich, as well as the manufacturer of Russian Khamon, the latter, the latest belligerently held the latter. Load leg, like a balalaika. All this pre -election "walk" even for the initiates frankly resembled a parade of city freaks. The most enemies in social networks was made by the actor and prominent defender of the city constructivist heritage Oleg Viktorovich, who was self -proclaimed in the advertising campaign "The Unified Candidate of the Opposition." By this, as well as quite toothless (and even more than a complimentary to the mayor), he caused real rage among the supporters of those who could really be considered the opposition to Lock.

Of course, the candidate of "Navalny" Sergey Boyko became the most striking and claiming consolidation of protest votes. He triumphantly collected signatures recognized by the election commission as valid, held a bright and memorable campaign, and received ... nearly 20% of the votes, which were completely insufficient to win. No opposition consolidation in the city happened. As does not happen in Russia as a whole.

The problem of these elections was in the turnout. The opposition was never able to bring to the sections of its supporters (or at least opponents of the current mayor): lack of finances, revaluation of the electorate protest moods, lack of consolidation, active federal propaganda - and as a result of a low turnout. Moreover, the weather on this day "whisper" ...

Like a year ago, in the election of the governor, the Novosibirsk "voted with their feet." Moreover, the current governor of the herbalists from the point of view of the number of votes cast even more legitimumen than the mayor of the elbow. If 164.9 thousand citizens voted over the first (or almost 14% of all voters), then only 123.3 thousand votes (or a little more than 10%) for the current mayor (with a lower turnout!). Yes, this is a victory. Although it is the low turnout and non -participation in the elections that may allow the townspeople on the occasion to say: "We have not chosen you! You can’t imagine us!" Only now he will hear these words, when the elections are already far behind ...

Andrey Pozdnyakov - marketer, local historian, Novosibirsk

The "Opinion" expressed in the heading of the point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial office