Konstantin Sonin: Off-top lesson of Brexit

The forecast is this: the Laborites will wait for the first signs of a recession (Brexit is bad for the economy, and sometime this should have an effect, well, or the world recession will begin) or at least some fatigue from Boris and then they will agree to early elections

What has been happening with Brexit in recent days (Prime Minister Johnson was banned from leaving the EU without a new deal) shows just how little personality matters in modern democratic politics. The prime minister has changed, instead of the quiet bureaucrat Theresa May, who herself would have remained in the EU, but on duty tried to take the country out of it, a loud-voiced showman, a longtime supporter of Brexit, became the prime minister - and nothing has changed. The same alignment in parliament leads to exactly the same situation. So far, Johnson has not been able to get support in Parliament on any issue (except, in fact, the formation of a government).

I remind you that the British voter said in 2016: "Let's get out!" - ignored the advice and pleas of the elite, but in the 2017 elections he said: “No, wait a minute!” by taking away a clear majority from the Conservatives. Since the conservative governments of May and Johnson rely on a faction that has both supporters and opponents of Brexit, neither Brexit, nor abandonment of it, nor an agreement, nor a no-deal exit is not gaining votes. “Agreement with the EU” is roughly “leave everything as it was” with cosmetic changes. And now the opposition does not want early elections - because they also have both, and they are afraid that those who firmly believe in Brexit will vote for the "Brexit party", and those who are strongly against - for the liberal Democrats who are hard for repeal.

And, without delving deeply, the forecast is as follows: the Laborites will wait for the first signs of a recession (Brexit is bad for the economy, and sometime this should have an effect, well, or the world recession will begin) or at least some fatigue from Boris and then they will agree to early elections. Well, and, perhaps, according to the results of the elections, they will receive exactly the same stalemate.

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