Dmitry Milin: "The day after Putin's death, the elite group will begin a merciless war"

“Imagine that Putin will die tomorrow. Yes, it happens. It is not young, he has a nervous work, and his life in Russia does not have much to male longevity. The next day of the Putin elite group (Var.“ Kremlin towers ”) will begin a merciless war“ all against all ”for money, property and power with a plum of compromise in the media, social networks and a naval sudden, with mutual sudden Plantings and the same sudden liberation with other landings, ”writes a publicist and analyst on his Facebook page.

“Of course, there is a non-level probability of establishing a dictatorship of some kind of junta, but the level of mutual distrust and fear between the warring groups, which only Putin and his rating are united, are so great that this probability strives for zero.

As a result of this struggle, the society will have a bunch of pronounced groups (and clans, even related places), not one of which will be able to obtain a monopoly on power, and the probability of the formation of a strong coalition due to a high level of distrust of each other is extremely small.

This is where these groups will need an appeal to society (people). To do this, they will need to portray some attractive ideologies and visions of the future in order to win the elections (the version of the Gazprom Civil War against Rosneft and the FSB do not consider the Ministry of Internal Affairs).

If Putin’s death occurs until 2021 is likely that the “sleeping institutions” like parliamentary parties, which are grabbing the opposing groups with their apparatus, will wake up with Ekaterina Shulman. Moreover, in this case, the EP can be torn to parts of the opposing interests, the ONF will come to life, and the Communist Party, LDPR and SR from the scenery will turn into expressors of the interests of some pronounced groups and clans.

In principle, now it is possible to estimate what ideologies will be involved in the struggle for power: liberalism, and in two versions of the sovereign and projuroral, socialist populism, imperial fascism (where without it?) And Russian nationalism (not imperial !!!).

This is where questions appear to the opposition. What will she do? Will a rally or march? Sorry, but it will be ridiculous and not relevant. In this situation, it is necessary to offer a positive image of the future and a constructive action plan in order to enter the elections with this, which, due to the war of the whistled groups, risk becoming the most honest in the modern history of the Russian Federation. The opposition will only need to take part in them without gaining their stable 1-2-5% of the vote.

Do we have an opposition with a positively future and constructive action plan for such a case? I'm afraid that we do not have such an opposition. In this ideal case, the opposition has quarreled due to the "division of portfolios" in the future government will not be able to offer society, except for compromising evidence for each other. "