Poland without a monopoly

After the parliamentary elections, the architecture of the authorities will remain. But the atmosphere in the country will change

What are the results of the parliamentary elections in Poland? What are their political consequences? What allowed the right populists from the party of Yaroslav Kachinsky to win again? Do Poland wait for change? Vaclav Radzivinovich’s newspapers, the Warsaw Varvy Radzivinovich newspaper, answered questions.

Despite the impressive victory of the party of power at the parliamentary elections last Sunday, it was impossible to say that nothing has changed in Poland. Yes, the Kachinsky Party “Law and Justice” (PIS) won a large margin-43.6% (she took the second place “Civil Coalition”-27.4%) and retained its majority in the Sejm-the lower house of the parliament, but even after the publication of the results of the first exit, he noted that his party deserves more. They seriously counted not on a simple majority, but on a constitutional one, which would allow them to change the laws the way they want and lead - as they call it - “reforms”, and in fact - the restructuring of the entire state system of Poland. But with 235 out of 460 places in parliament, it is already impossible to make the plan.

What is changing in the country? Maybe the changes at first glance are not so great, but quite significant. First of all, we must pay attention to the fact that left (Lewica) passed into the parliament after a break in four years. This is an opposition coalition in which several parties are represented: green and social democrats, and even a certain number of former party communist functionaries.

But young people rule the ball in it, very liberal, not ossified, but very pro -European ones.

They received 12.6% of the vote, they have a large fraction in parliament (39 mandates). They will change the working conditions of the Sejm. Still, the opposition “civilian platform” is cultural, calm, intelligent people with whom Kaczynsky was very easy to work, they could easily be taken with a haste, intimidation, or just a scream. The left are “young wolves”, they do not want and will not be silent, they will not be afraid to offend someone, including the Polish Catholic Church-the Pis support. They will definitely act with a sharp criticism of both the ruling party and priests.

Also, the parliament according to the results of these elections will include representatives of the right -handed party - that is, PIS will first receive the opposition on the right.

The Confederation of Freedom and Independence, according to its beliefs, is sharply anti -European, opposing taxes and centralization of the state apparatus, moreover, pro -Russian, we can even say that the Posoputinsky, and, accordingly, sharply anti -Ukrainian. These guys also just won’t shut your mouth. By the way, after the election to the celebration, guests from the law -Poopulistic “alternative for Germany”, which are obviously looking for support in Poland, granted them.

As a result, the comfort in which the Party “Law and Justice” was lost in recent years, it was lost. That cultural, calm, even shy opposition will no longer be.

The changes affected not only the lower, but also the upper house of the parliament, the majority in which the Party of government also previously belonged. Despite the fact that the Senate does not have such great powers, this is a large tribune. In addition, it is a body that can inhibit legislative processes.

Previously, with most PIS in both wards, in the morning the Sejm adopted the law, in the evening he was approved by the Senate, and in the morning he was signed by the president. Now it won't.

The Senate, of course, will not be able to reject the bill, but can brake the process of adopting it for many months. Because now in the Senate, consisting of 100 people, 51 senator from the opposition (left, “civilian platform”, “agrarian party” plus independent deputies). The chairman will be elected among opposition. In addition, the Senate is responsible for appointing to some government posts, not the most important, but, for example, he will decide who will become the Ombudsman. Given that Pis had plans to replace the current ombudsmen with their people, now it looks problematic.

In other words, the elections in Poland, although they did not change the architecture of the authorities, but will definitely change the atmosphere and mood.

Why did the party “Law and Justice”, which ruled Poland for the past four years, again won the parliamentary elections? She received a majority of votes with a record for Poland, a 61%turnout, primarily thanks to her social programs. Four years ago, the Kachinsky party announced the 500+ program - 500 zlotys, or 120 euros, every month to each family after the birth of a second child. It seems that this is not so much money, but they allowed many families to rise from poverty. This year, the 13th Pension program has begun-this is a premium of about 200 euros, for many pensioners also significant. And in the future, these social programs will only expand.

The Russian press wrote that the party of the authorities simply buys voters, but one cannot but admit that many in Poland are really necessary. A mistake is to believe that the Poles chose exclusively money. Because in addition to the implementation of social programs, PIS uses tremendous support for the Catholic Church.

On Sunday, on the Day of Silence, the rethm of parishes strongly recommended that and vote only for “law and justice”, adding that those who would vote for other parties risk getting to hell.

Hierarchs even acted as speakers of power. This had its influence on the electorate and also was the cause of both a high turnout and most votes for PIS.

But we must pay tribute to the Party of Power that they understand what feelings of Poles should be played. They rely on conservatism, disowned from same-sex marriages and LGBT communities, and officially announced the inadmissibility of the implementation of the refugee reception program that did not support the majority in the country. But, frankly, this is cunning.

Now Poland is a record holder for the number of workers and living in migrants, not only Belarusians and Ukrainians, but also Vietnamese, immigrants from the Middle East. Which, by the way, really help to develop the Polish economy. Naturally, government media do not talk about this.

In general, the situation with the Polish media is very reminiscent of the first years of Putin’s reign, when the authorities took the central television channels to the hands.

Our “Vedomosti” now resemble the programs of Kiselev on “Russia-1”: the same praise of power, the silence of real problems and criticism of the opposition. This is strong and effective propaganda, especially to the hinterland, where many cannot afford to pay for private channels, and sometimes there simply are no such there.

“Pis” also supports the so -called “historical policy”, which implies the silence of the “black spots” of Polish history, and they, no matter how embarrassed, were to admit this: recall at least the massacre of Jews in the village of Speravabna in July 1941. But the authorities believe that it is better to portray a victim and say that there is no such noble nation as Poles anywhere else. You understand what I'm talking about, because the same thing happens in Russia. And, it turned out that the Poles, like the Russians, liked it.

Another reason for the high support of the party in power is the preservation of a favorable economic situation. The high pace of development of the Polish economy, closely related to Germany, affect the credit of the confidence of the party in power. Despite the fact that the pace of this growth has long been not record, there is no need to talk about any recession and even stagnations, people feel this economic stability and, of course, associate the activity of the “PIS”.

What will change? The party of power promises that there will be no global changes within the country. The 14th will be added to the “13th pension”, and payments under the 500+ program will be issued for the first child. As for foreign policy, then nothing special should be expected. The nature of relations with Russia is unlikely to change.

The rejection of Moscow is the personal file of Yaroslav Kachinsky, still convinced that Putin and Donald Tusk are to blame for the death of his brother of Kachinsky.

Warsaw will also demand the return of the remains of a plane crashed under the Smolensk. And before this happens, no thaws should be expected.

Moreover, pro -American policy will be assigned more actively. Warsaw goes almost in Donald Trump’s train - like no one in Europe. There will be attempts to coordinate the placement of the American military base in Poland, the Polish part of the missile defense missile defense will develop.

It is difficult to say how relations with Kyiv will be built. “Pis” may well be involved in anti -Ukrainian adventures. Although in the words of Warsaw Kyiv supports, but still looks at Zelensky with suspicion. And anti -Ukrainian rhetoric will become more with the arrival of right -wing radicals in the Sejm, which completely declare that the main threat to Poland is not Russia, but Ukraine.

And certainly relations with the European Union will become aggravated. The parliament considers the reform of the judicial system initiated by the "PIS", including the replacement of current judges and the change of their powers, which greatly nerves Europe. This will cause scandals and squabbles. But Kachinsky will not go to excessive confrontation with the EU, because he intends to receive European subsidies for the development of agriculture. He promised farmers that he would pay extra for each cow or pig. Let's see how he will get out of this interesting situation.