Citizens - new minerals

How the Russian authorities are preparing to fall oil and gas revenues

Why does the government increase the retirement age and VAT rate at the time when the budget bursts from money? Judge for yourself: in 2018, its surplus was 2.7 trillion. rubles, for 9 months of 2019 - already almost 3 trillion. In 2019, the federal budget surplus will be more than the total salary, which 8 million Russians will receive in the year.

A rich state

By the way, did you ever think that the revenues of the consolidated budget (after deducting regional transfers) are more than the total salary received in the hands of all Russians? Those. The state is richer than all its working citizens. Strange, isn't it?

The clue is in the income that the export of hydrocarbons brings the budget. For example, last year out of 37.2 trillion. The revenues of the consolidated budget "Oil and gas revenues" gave as many as 9 trillion. But in fact - much more, because they do not take into account most of the income tax (we remember that in the crisis in 2009, when the price of oil fell sharply, the income tax was reduced by 2.5 times). A significant part of the VAT, both external and internal, is not taken into account, because the purchasing power of the population is reduced when the cost of oil falls, and purchases are also reduced with it, and with purchases - VAT and receipts from customs duties for imports.

But it turns out that it turns out that the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak last week said that we have never seen oil prices for $ 100 per barrel, and in the medium term the fair barrel cost is no more than 50 dollars.

The Ministry of Finance, who has already accumulated $ 124 billion in reserves, intends to add almost $ 100 billion to them in the next three years. And most importantly, as Minister of Economics Maxim Oreshkin recently said, a panacea was found from any economic problems - a “free ruble course”. That is, oil fell in price - the dollar has risen in price, the budget revenues in ruble expression did not decrease.

One hundred troubles are one answer. The devaluation is called. A wonderful medicine, only one minus: a fall in the standard of living of the population.

All the same Ministry of Finance broke the return to a rather strict norm of the “budget rule”, according to which the federal budget, in fact, is childless at $ 40/barrel, and all supernordative income is stored in the national welfare fund. This, of course, depresses the economy a little, but, on the other hand, gives stability to the budget. And the stability of the budget, the rhythm of the payment of pensions and salaries to state employees is (as the “damned 90” showed the basis of the stability of the authorities.

So, we see that the Russian state accumulates a huge financial reserve, and prefers to store it in foreign currency, which is logical if you plan more than one devaluation in the future. And also pursues a policy of a weak ruble, which, in fact, makes the budget deeply valuable. And at the same time increases taxes.

The budget is not up to pensions

But this is not all: the state reduces the social expenditures of the budget. It is primarily about the same pension reform, which began not in 2018, but in the distant 2013 - with confiscation (as it is now clear to everyone) the funded part of the pension. This seizure is equivalent to an increase in the tax rate on personal income from 13% to 19%. If we assume that there are more than 50 million payers of pension contributions in the country, then with an average “dirty” salary last year, 43,724 rubles per month, only one measure in this measure in 2018 was up to 1.5 trillion.

In 2018, the retirement age was increased, which also gave the state budget a serious and increasing savings-we are talking about at least a few hundred billion rubles a year.

The state budget receives double benefits: does not pay pensions to those who have raised their retirement age, continuing to receive personal income tax and social payments from them.

By the way, raising the retirement age is nothing more than a forced consequence of confiscation by the state of the funded part: from 2024, the first ages will begin to retire, in whose pension provision the serious share should have been formed by the very funded pension deductions. But since by that time there will be no 10 years as it will not, it remains only one thing: to increase the retirement age for them (and all others).

The planned introduction of a “guaranteed pension product” (GPP), the essence of which is that a citizen can count on a funded pension only if they pay him from his salary of a six percent “funded pension contribution”, in the context of small Russian salaries will lead to a significant part of the employees will not make these deductions. Having stopped working, these people will receive only a minimum pension, and, in the state of the state, they will be to blame for this themselves.

And since it is impossible to live on a “minimum”, you will have to work until death. That is, for a huge number of Russians, the introduction of GPP actually means the abolition of a pension.

And here we recall that the indexation of a pension for working Russians has been canceled. That is, they will receive the same amount from the state, every year decreasing due to inflation. But this is not all: the system of “pension points” introduced several years ago de facto makes your pension dependent on the country's fullness of the country.

Finally, the transfer of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation recently proposed by the Ministry of Labor into the form of a public legal company cancels the subsidiary liability of the state for the obligations of the PF to the Pension Pension Contributions in the Law on Compulsory Pension Insurance.

Did you feel the beauty and scale of the plan? And you only noticed raising the retirement age.

Diversification in Russian

The next element is the reform of taxation of the fuel and energy complex, which reduces the tax press to the raw material industry. What is logical: in the near future, this industry will be transferred to the strongest blow that will be reduced by oil demand and oil products, so it is better to give her the opportunity to prepare for it in advance, at the same time preparing for it and the state budget. Why it is necessary to transfer the severity of taxation to the population and non -resource industries in advance.

But you can’t take a lot from non-people, moreover, 72 million workers need some kind of work, which is not concentrated in the extraction of minerals in the vast majority of them. In the dry residue:

“Our New Oil” is a population who will have to make the main contribution to the taxation of raw materials to reduce the taxation of raw materials.

Another essential element of budget preparation for future shocks is the reduction in social expenses that goes in all directions and covers both federal and regional and local budgets. Under the main blow was healthcare: back in 2015, the Ministry of Finance proposed, taking into account the fact that the main expenses of personnel are the costs of personnel in the general costs of healthcare, and to save in this area. The result is obvious: almost every day due to low wages, here and there doctors quit with whole groups.

The Ministry of Economic Development, leading a new round of the banking crisis, was absolutely correctly forced to force the banking system to reduce the growth rate of consumer lending, logically supplementing it with the direction of funds released from banks for mortgage and economic entities. Given the share of imports in the sales of consumer goods, consumer lending is imported imports, while the mortgage makes demand in the so -called The “inaccurate” industry - ready -made high -rise buildings have not yet learned how to import from China. In addition, housing construction gives the maximum animated effect for the economy, which over time compensates for losses from reducing consumer demand.

All these are examples of how the state is preparing for the upcoming global reduction in hydrocarbons exports, working in the following areas: increasing taxes and fees, as well as improving administration, reducing social budget expenditures, increasing the financial reserves of the government, dismantling the main article of social expenses, reducing consumer lending to the population, transferring the severity of the severity taxation with the fuel and energy complex on the non -people sector of the economy and the population.