Bulba in Chinese

Belarus is now looking for loans not from Russia, but from China. And oil is in Kazakhstan. How to understand this?

The Minister of Finance of Belarus Maxim Ermolovich on Friday told reporters that Belarus did not need “political loans” from Russia. According to the minister, Belarus is provided with sources of financing before the end of the year, and there is no need for Russian loan: “We do not consider the loan of the Government of the Russian Federation as a source of financing and, in fact, are not negotiating on this loan. We did not provide requests to the Russian side. We do not count on the Russian loan. ”

On the same days, representatives of the Chinese Development Bank arrived in Minsk, and Ermolovich confirmed that by the end of the year Belarus would receive a loan from the Celestial Empire of 3.5 billion yuan (about $ 500 million).

Many perceived this as a sensation, especially since Alexander Lukashenko met in Nur-Sultan on the same day with the President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev and optimistic spoke about the future supplies and processing of Kazakh oil in Belarus. The picture looks like new reliable partners and new markets have already been found, so the rejection of the Russian loan called “political” is a gesture and demonstration of the change in the vector. In reality, everything is not quite the case.

The fact is that Belarus refuses what no one offers her. Let me remind you. At the beginning of this year, Minsk turned to Moscow with a request to provide a state loan of $ 600 million to refinance debt obligations to Russia (this year, Belarusian payments for public debt are $ 3.29 billion). In June, Minister Maxim Ermolovich stated that Russia links the allocation of a loan with integration processes - “with a large agenda of bilateral relations”. Then a framework agreement was signed with the China Development Bank.

On October 19, the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov told reporters that Russia had not yet made the final decision to allocate the state credit of Belarus and that everything would depend on how two states will advance in further integration. And on Friday, October 25, after the statement of the Minister of Finance of Belarus that Minsk is not needed by political loans, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said: “Of course, we track this information. Contacts with the Belarusian side continue. We cannot say anything about lending to the Chinese side, this is the sovereign right of our Belarusian comrades. As for contacts with Moscow - they will continue, this is simply a discussion of mutual and mutually beneficial modalities of such a loan, of course, taking into account the volume of previously allocated credit lines. ”

But except for “mutually acceptable modalities” nothing not only of sensational, but we did not recognize the new one. The Belarusian loan request hung in the air in the winter. Negotiations with China are the history of early summer. And not only the point is not set in any of the plot lines, but the ellipsis is not visible.

It’s just that both sides (China here is a secondary character) have long announced the signing of the fateful integration document on December 8, to the twentieth anniversary of the Union Agreement. So you have to equip shelters from all sides in case nothing happens.

The only addition to the usual already communal scandal exchange of replicas is the visit of Alexander Lukashenko to Kazakhstan and the proposal to process Kazakhstani oil in Belarusian refinery with subsequent sale in the European market. But Belarus and Kazakhstan did not sign any oil agreements: first you need to agree with Russia on transit. Lukashenko promised to conduct consultations with Moscow. Surely by December 8, they will finish something to something.

Minsk