Bloomberg warns of global fertility crisis

In order for humanity to reproduce stably, there must be at least two children for every woman. In the 1960s, this rate was equal to five children per woman, and by 2017 it had dropped to 2.43. to this conclusion Bloomberg came by analyzing statistics for 200 countries.

• On average, the global “replacement rate” is higher than necessary – 2.1 children per woman – but the median values ​​are very different. More than half of the countries are already below this line, partly offset by immigration as birth rates decline in the same countries that look most attractive to visitors - the US and Western Europe.
• For now, these are just warnings. According to UN estimates, by 2100 the population should increase by 3 billion people. And then it will be necessary to look for non-standard solutions.

Why is it important . The issue of fertility does not exist in a vacuum: new people are needed to produce and consume more goods and services, accelerating the economy. Therefore, it is not enough to create conditions that, according to the authorities, should encourage women to give birth more (although there are examples of harmless and successful decisions, for example, generous maternity payments in Scandinavia or China's abandonment of the one-child policy), writes Bloomberg. Consideration could be given to how to integrate mothers and women in general into the economy and workflow. Now, according to the publication, a little more than half of all women in the world work.

• Simple integration into the economy is also not enough: it is important not just to work, but to work productively. Between 2000 and 2017, labor productivity growth had a much stronger impact on economic growth than birth rates and unemployment rates, Bloomberg writes, citing OECD data. However, everything is ambiguous here: in 2017, growth in labor productivity was due to 90% of the potential for economic growth, but in Saudi Arabia in the same period, 62% of the potential was due to population growth.

What is in Russia. less than two children per woman In Russia, there are . There is a problem with both. In 2018, the death rate exceeded the birth rate and the country's population decreased for the first time in 10 years to 146.8 million people. Labor productivity is also low: in 2017, according to the OECD, it was $26.5. This is lower than in all OECD countries except Mexico.