Charging is enough for everyone

Is there life after gasoline: 14 main myths about electric cars

From the editorial office

In October, we published the material “Your gasoline is the end!”, In which Maxim Averbukh wrote about the inevitable transfer of the world fleet to electric engines. In the second part, the author responds to the objections of skeptics, storing loyalty to the traditional fuel.

Due to the fact that in the past few years Russia and the rest of the world have been moving in opposite directions, technical progress has somewhat out of sight of a modern Russian. The situation is even worse with the realization of the speed with which this progress changes the world. Even the story with Slantseva oil, which the most “advanced” was heard in 2011, and only three years later it brought down the cost of oil at times - did not teach us anything.

Having abandoned the idea of ​​progress, the Russian authorities live in a static world and pay for this narrowness of the horizons over and over again. Moreover, eating from the raw material economy, the Russians themselves also deny technological progress as a threat to their lifestyle and standard of living. Hence the pronounced dislike of the symbols of technological progress - Ilon Mask and his "Tesla".

The Russian, like any normal person, does not want to think about what is unpleasant for him, so the refusal of the world fleet of the internal combustion engine (ICE) is supplanted to the periphery of consciousness, his ideas about electric cars are backward and mythological, more precisely, mythologized.

Here we will talk about them, about these myths.

The first myth

Lithium and cobalt deficiency for batteries

The lithium open and affordable at the current prices of reserves will be enough for the production of more than one billion electric vehicles - this is precisely the entire world fleet. Cobalt consumption per electric car over the past 6 years has fallen 4 times. The real problem could be that the industry of lithium and cobalt production does not keep up with the requirements of the market. But in reality, including due to the reduction in the use of cobalt, it, on the contrary, is developing a driving pace. Because of this, since the beginning of 2018, serious overproduction has been observed on the market of these metals: in a year and a half, the price of cobalt has fallen three times, the price of lithium-by 45%.

The second myth

Where do you get electricity, is it also from hydrocarbons?

On fuel oil in the world, only 4% of electricity is produced. Gas consumption can indeed increase, but it will be only one of the three sources of electrogenation, along with the sun and wind. In the gas market with the exit of LNG from the United States, tough competition for sales volumes will begin. So the price of gas will not be high. Since the United States has become an exporter of gas, the creation of an analogue of OPEC in this market is pointless - it will constantly give in all the most for the market share of the market to American exports.

I specially note that for the full transfer of the world fleet to the electric motor it is necessary to increase world electrogevation by 20% compared to 2018. The sun and wind give 11.5% of the total US electrogeneration, 7.7% in huge China and more than 30% in one of the most industrial economies in the world - Germany. So, as you can see, sunny and chicken generation also develop ahead of schedule. Their pure electricity, if we consider the overall energy of the planet, will be quite enough to cover the needs of electric vehicles. And this means that we can see the transformation of wind and solar generation from subsidized exotic into the most common and cheapest type of electricity.

The third myth

It is cold in Russia, what other electric cars?

In a territory where, due to climatic conditions, an electric car can “fail”, 1% of the population of the planet lives. This is the north of Canada, the almost uninhabited north of Scandinavia and our country with you (but not all).

True, technical progress is in a hurry to help, not solving all, but part of the problem. Scientists from the University of Pennsylvania presented a way to quickly charging lithium-ion batteries at low temperature conditions: new batteries can independently heat up 10 minutes to 60 ° C and at the end of charging are equally quickly cooled.

Anyway, in history with electric cars, Russia with its hydrocarbon economy is located - alas - in a suffering pledge.

The fourth myth

Electric cars cannot seriously reduce oil demand

The transport sector - cars, air and water transport - forms demand for 52% of global oil production. Road transport consumes about 44% of all oil produced in the world (half falls on passenger vehicles). Those. Under the blow of 44-52% of global oil demand. A lot, isn't it?

Myth fifth

In addition to vehicles, several hundred other products are made from oil: plastics, asphalt, etc.. So there is nothing to worry about

To begin with, see the previous item - the loss of half the demand for oil, as you know, will be reflected in the cost of oil and in the revenue from its sale. Then - a year ago, a global company against plastic began and advanced very much. And this is another 8% of the global oil production. They are also under the blow.

In addition, the development of hydrogen energy carries another threat to a hydrocarbon economy: hydrogen is able to replace part of the petrochemical products.

The sixth myth

And what to do with batteries?

The Finnish Fortum launched the deep -cut battery processing plant of 50% and brings it to 80%. The German Volkswagen is building the same plant in Germany. The processing depth of 80% is almost complete processing. In addition, automobile batteries that have already served their term are used as cheap home drives - this is their “second life”.

The myth seventh

Your calculations do not take into account the increase in the fleet

First: in Norway, where the share of electric vehicles and hybrids in total automobiles exceeded 50%, the fleet as a whole grew, but at the same time, the consumption of motor fuel was reduced-precisely due to the sales of electric vehicles and hybrids.

Second: car sharing will contribute to its contribution, however, not so much the total mileage as the number of cars.

The third and most importantly: the total growth of the world fleet (new cars minus the landfill) is a pace of 45 million cars annually. In 2025, 10-15 million electric vehicles will be produced in the world. Then, due to the entry into force on three of the four main car markets of the world (China, EU, Japan), new requirements for the economy and environmental friendliness of the engine, there will be a jump in growth.

A significant number of countries have already banned the sale of cars with ICEs on their territory from 2035-2040. Auto -manufacturers will stop their production ahead of at least 5 years.

Myth eighth

Too small mileage on one charge

In China, you can now buy a 650 km in $ 45,000, a mileage of 650 km in a mileage, its same version at one gas station of 400 km will cost the buyer $ 10,000 cheaper. The BYD manufacturer sells its Yuan EV S2 model with an autonomous mileage of 410 km for $ 25,000. The EU-SERIES electric sedan from BAIC, capable of driving 416 km for $ 32,500. The basic version of Tesla-3 is sold for $ 35,000.

Myth ninth

Too long exercise

The Supercharger V3 charger fully charges relatively budget Teslu-3 in 15 minutes, for a mileage of 120 km in 5 minutes.

The tenth myth

Too expensive

Tesla-3 in the basic configuration costs $ 35,000. Most of the cars are sold in the United States in the segment of 30-36 thousand dollars apiece. So Tesla is already in the most sold price segment. The five -door Renault Zoe costs $ 23,800. SEAT MII Electric hatchback with a mileage of 260 km will cost the buyer $ 25,000. The new Nissan Leaf will cost an American buyer $ 29,900. We will not even mention budget Chinese models.

The myth is the eleventh

All this is kept on state documents

In 2016, when the average annual cost of Brent oil amounted to $ 45 per barrel, the European Union spent $ 166 billion on oil imports, saving as a decrease in oil prices against 2013 as a similar amount of the European Union spent the import of oil products in 2016. That is, in total for the import of oil and oil products in 2016, the European Union spent more than $ 300 billion.

In 2019, at an average of 10 months, a price of $ 60 per barrel for the import of oil and oil products of the EU will spend at least a third more than in 2016 - about $ 400 billion.

As we recall, in the global oil consumption, the share of vehicles is 44%, i.e. If the entire European fleet were transferred to an electric motor, the European Union would save on the import of oil and oil products more than $ 170 billion per year.

There is also a political benefit: the dependence of the European Union on oil exporting countries, on Russia and OPEC, will sharply decrease.

Over a decade, saving for the EU will be more than $ 2 trillion. Can be invested in electricalization.

The myth is twelfth

Lack of world infrastructure of electrical supplies

There are powerful movements: in the USA, the leader of the Democrats in the Senate Charles Schumer presented a plan for the transfer of a car park and a car production to an electric motor, which provides for subsidies to automakers of $ 17 billion and state costs for creating a nationwide electrical network of $ 45 billion. Europe expectedly pulled up. And now Merkel said that in the next 10 years, Germany will build a network of 1 million electrical supplies.

Myth is the thirteenth

This is the intervention of the state in the market!

Direct state duties of the US hydrocarbon sector amounted to $ 27.4 billion in 2018. The state budget of China has comparable expenses, subsidizing the cost of gasoline in the country. These are adherents of such an idea, “super -liberals from the economy”, not very worried. And the intervention, which reduces the expenses of states for oil imports, improves the quality of life, reduces the costs of car owners for car maintenance and the cost of a kilometer of run is very exciting.

Gosmitykhiya is a disclosure of state, it can be harmful, it can be useful. This case is an infrequent example of the useful state intervention in the economy.

Myth fourteenth

The electric car is as harmful to the ecology as a car with ICE

Here you can write a lot of words, give a lot of calculations and graphs, but I will simply note: back in 2017, specialists from the Free University of Brussels published a study “Analysis of the influence of electric vehicles during their life cycle on climate”. Their conclusion: even with the current, a sufficiently “dirty” structure of electrogenation in the EU, the electric car during operation throws twice less CO2 than the reference diesel.