Many expect more from Vladimir Putin's (left) first meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky than it can deliver, experts say / AFP

On Monday, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will gather in Paris for talks on settling the conflict in southeastern Ukraine. The first Normandy format summit in three years is also expected to host the first face-to-face meeting between Russian and Ukrainian Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.

There will be no agreement following the summit, but no one expects one, Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov explained to journalists on December 5 (his words were published on his Telegram channel by Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist Dmitry Smirnov): "That would be an inflated expectation, which we very vigorously warn against." It is possible that a non-binding document will be adopted, which will describe "points on which there is a common understanding," and the Kremlin considers the meeting itself to be a positive moment, he added.

Zelensky's press secretary Yulia Mendel also warned on Facebook on Sunday that "the war in Donbas will not end on December 10" and that "inflated expectations could leave an aftertaste of disappointment." But the summit is a real opportunity for a ceasefire because "while diplomats talk, guns remain silent," Mendel noted.

Western analysts agree with such assessments. Neither a failure nor a breakthrough should be expected from the meeting – there will be something in the middle, believes Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian analytical center Observo. The final communiqué has been ready since September, but it will be a framework document and the most important thing is missing from it – the implementation of general principles of the settlement in life, says the expert: “It is clear that the Ukrainian issue will not be resolved the morning after the summit. But perhaps the process will move forward and in a year it will be possible to seriously talk about resolving the conflict and lifting anti-Russian sanctions. This is what the French side wants.” Perhaps the leaders will agree on a new exchange of detainees, suggests Stefan Meister, a research fellow at the German Society for Foreign Policy. But Russia still wants Ukraine to be federalized and for the rebels to be recognized as full partners in the negotiations, and this is unacceptable for Zelensky, the expert points out: “Moscow will not compromise and will rather try to put pressure on Zelensky through people in his entourage. But Zelensky also obviously has limits to what he can agree to.”

Kyiv agreed on a scenario for the reintegration of Donbass before the Normandy summit

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Russian experts are also cautious in their forecasts. "There is no need to expect any serious changes in the disposition: there will not be and cannot be any decisions, breakthroughs, fateful agreements, or powerful advances there," says political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov. But one can quite expect the emergence of personal interaction between Putin and Zelensky, he notes: "If they have some personal contact, this will soften the atmosphere somewhat." Progress is possible in the implementation of the military part of the Minsk agreements - a more stable ceasefire, fewer violations, and possibly the withdrawal of troops and the continuation of the exchange of prisoners, believes political scientist Andrei Kortunov. But in the political part of the Minsk agreements, it seems that serious disagreements remain, he notes.

The opinions of Ukrainian experts were divided.

"There is no point in assuming that some special formula that will fundamentally change the situation will be invented during the summit," admits political scientist Georgy Chizhov. Russia has taken a rather tough position, as it is in the most favorable situation for itself in the last five years: the West is tired of sanctions and of this whole situation in general, the expert notes. "I think Putin feels that he can win everything and push through all his conditions. Until he is convinced of the opposite, there is no point in making concessions." But Zelensky cannot give in either, and in such conditions only an exchange of opinions is possible, Chizhov emphasizes: "It is interesting to see to what extent Germany and France are ready to support Russia. In Ukraine, they paint such a terrible picture - if earlier at such meetings Putin was one against three, now Zelensky will be one against three."

But political scientist Vadim Karasev allows for a “moderately optimistic scenario”: we can expect a plan for implementing the Minsk agreements, and certainty regarding the law on the special status of Donbass, and an agreement on the main modalities of the law on elections in this territory. “There will be no failure. I’m not saying there will be a breakthrough, but there will be a step forward,” he is convinced.

Politicians and experts do not expect a breakthrough from the Normandy summit