Around Russia

Big Middle Eastern agreement

January 9, 2020 Alexander Golts

So, frightened humanity can be relieved to take a breath. The new round of the American-Iranian confrontation, which threatened to turn around almost the third world, was only reduced to the demonstration of certain formidable gestures. Let me remind you that on the night of January 3, the American drone destroyed the commander of the special operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Revolution Corps Kasem Suleimani. For twenty years, the general was some kind of Iranian Colonel Lawrence, formed Shiite military organizations in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, the purpose of which was to do maximum harm to Israel and the United States. The last operation of Suleimani, the American intelligence claims, was an attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad. For which the general was punished. The murder of the national hero caused an explosion of indignation in Iran. Moreover, such a force that some observers recalled the events of 40 years ago, when the American embassy in Tehran was captured by an angry crowd. This time, due to the lack of an American embassy, ​​there was nothing to capture. But the leadership of the Islamic Republic did not skimp on the most terrible threats to the USA. The murder of Suleimani was directly called the act of war, the Americans were promised terrible revenge.

Since unpredictability is a hallmark of theocratic regime in Tehran, the world froze in anticipation of the worst. And on January 8, the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution released either a dozen or two small and medium -range missiles for two American bases in Iraq. The Iranian media immediately reported the death of more than 80 US military. However, it turned out that no one was injured at all, and material damage was not too significant. Later there was a leak that explained such a wonderful inefficiency of Iranian missiles. It turns out that Tehran warned the Iraqi leadership in advance, and then the American command. Then followed the statement of Iranian leaders that the act of revenge can be considered executed ...

If so, then, conducting their operation, the guards of the Islamic revolution almost in detail repeated the actions of their sworn enemies-the American military in the spring of 2018. Then Washington announced his intention to punish Assad’s regime for chemical attacks against the Syrian opposition. It was supposed to apply missile and bombing at the command centers of the Assad army. The head of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov threatened to strike at American ships and aircraft if they threaten the lives of Russian troops who could be in the Syrian management centers. The prospect of a direct collision of the two largest nuclear powers has become quite real. The Americans took the threat seriously and, as you can understand, informally informed Moscow about where they would strike. As a result, the number of victims was minimal. And the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu even reported to President Putin that the air defense systems modernized by our specialists intercepted most of the Tomagavs. It is likely that during a telephone conversation with the head of the Iranian General Staff, the head of the Russian military department introduced the interlocutor to a wonderful script for the Middle Eastern agreement. And the script was adopted by Iranians into service. After a super -chickety, just caressing blow, high -ranking Iranian officials emphasized that the return blow was adequate American crimes. And thus hinted to Washington: it's time to put an end to

Until the evening of January 8, it was unclear how Trump would react. In principle, he had the opportunity to repeat the story with the Tonksi incident, when an unconfirmed fact of an attack on the American destroyers who were not caused by harm became a reason for the Vietnamese war. However, here the mind triumphed. In his appeal, which, by logicality, is quite comparable to the speeches of Ayatollah Hamenie, Donald Trump said: he intends to punish Iran with the introduction of even more merciless economic sanctions. The war, therefore, is postponed. Moreover, Washington offered Tehran direct negotiations without preliminary conditions.

Thus, in the 21st century, with all modern technological achievements, the military confrontation occurs, thank God, according to the battles of condoters in medieval Italy. Strategists produce sophisticated maneuvers of the troops, several knights converge in fights. Then the war is declared over. You can recall the duels, during which each of the participants deliberately shot in the air. I think that serious scientific works will soon appear, which will be proved: the current strategic situation is characterized by a combination of unimaginable in destructive power of military power and, at the same time, gaining power of humanism, which increasingly affects the decisions of even religious fanatics and authoritarian leaders. As a result, even having entered into a conflict that cannot be resolved by means of diplomacy, the parties avoid a direct military clash, arranging some symbolic actions that only depict the war.

You can only be happy. However, the problem is that for Tehran (and not only for him), unpredictability, the demonstrated willingness to sacrifice the lives of millions is the most important foreign policy. Let us recall at least how Ayatolles regularly are going to burn Israel, and Vladimir Putin promised the Russians a direct road to paradise. Other participants should take into account these cute features, highlight special bonuses to calm the violent. But unpredictability is perishable goods. It is worth showing rationality, and the next time the counter -partners will not lead to formidable speeches. Insecency should be regularly confirmed by adventurous actions. Therefore, an exacerbation will inevitably follow the current lull ...

Photo: 1. 31.12.2019. Baghdad, Dec. 31, 2019 - Protesters Gather in Front of the US Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq On Dec. 31, 2019. Bai Ping via www.imago-images.de/Imago images/xinhua/TASS
2. 04.01.2020. Farewell to General Cash, Suleimani and the leader of the Right Shiite groups of Ali Mahdi al-Mukhandis in Baghdad. Ameer Al Mohmmedaw/DPA/Picture-alliance/TASS
3. 08.01.2020. US President Donald Trump made a statement after Iran’s missile strike on American facilities in Iraq. Michael Reynolds/EPA/TASS