The era of "humility"

Will Russia become a Muslim country? Discuss Sofya Ragozina and Igor Alekseev

• According to various forecasts, in 2030 in Russia, the share of Muslims will reach 30%, and by 2050 there will be more than 50%.
• Islam is the second most common religion in Russia, it is professed from 15 to 20 million people.
• Can Russia become a Muslim country in the future, as in the "submission" of Michel Welbek?

Sergey Medvedev: The future comes before our eyes, and very often it wears a hijab or a skullcap. We are talking about the growing influence of Islam in Russia and the growth of the Islamic population. According to some forecasts, the share of Muslims in Russia in 10 years, in 2030, will be 30%, and by 2050 - more than 50%, that is, after 30 years, Russia can purely statistically become a Muslim country. What does it mean? What role does Islam play in the current political and social life of the country?

Correspondent: Today, Islam is the second most common religion in Russia. According to approximate data, it is professed from 15 to 20 million people. Muslims live in almost all subjects of the Federation. Basically, Russian followers of Islam consist of three groups: Tatars and Bashkirs in the Volga region and in the Urals, and Muslims of the North Caucasus. Since the 90s, the contacts between the representatives of this religion multiplied, and more and more often the communication took place in Russian: for example, in many mosques, preaching is pronounced in Russian.

In organizationally, the Russian Muslim community is competition between its institutes. Some of the most influential are the council of the mufti, the central spiritual administration and the Office of the Republic of Tatarstan. In the North Caucasus there is a regional coordination center of Muslims, and the influence of ethnic muftii is clearly limited by the scale of the republics. The Russian government abandoned the unified general Muslim structure. It is extremely difficult to use Islam as a political tool, it is much easier to manipulate its competing spiritual centers. Now in the country there are over 80 such spiritual departments.
Islam has traveled a centuries -old path in the history of Russia, and today they are increasingly talking about its revival and activation, as well as about the ways of its further development.

Sergey Medvedev: In our studio , Sofya Ragozina , a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences , and Igor Alekseev , associate professor of the Russian State University .

What is the Muslim population - are Muslims by birth and culture or Muslims in active religion?

Sofya Ragozina: We have such a stereotype - to tie the Muslim population to a purely ethnic factor. In fact, the situation is much more complicated. In traditional Muslim republics, not every Tatar is a Muslim. In addition, there are such new phenomena as, for example, a growing Muslim community in the northern regions of Russia or in the Far East. That is, internal migration is associated not only with migration to the capital's regions, there are also some other directions-this is also a new phenomenon, new Muslims.

Igor Alekseev: Statistics, in principle, are very problematic, extremely evaluative, subjective. In any official and correct Russian statistics, religion is not taken into account in any way. All these figures are in their pure form expert assessments, and very often they depend on the position of experts. As a rule, Muslim experts are inclined to exaggerate to a greater or lesser extent: someone is within a reasonable one, up to 20 million. On the opposite side of Islamic -enjoying experts tend to underestimate the numbers and thereby blaming Muslim speakers of increasing their significance.

Islam has made a centuries -old path in the history of Russia, and today they are increasingly talking about its revival and activation

Sergey Medvedev: How realistic is the assessment that in Moscow three or four million Muslims?

Igor Alekseev: As realistic, the assessment is 15-20 million inhabitants in the Moscow agglomeration as a whole. If we keep in mind those people who come and remain for some time, then they still participate in the life of the city, including in the religious. There is an expert estimate: the number of the main festive prayers in two main Muslim holidays that are coming to the main festive prayers is taken - in recent years there are about 200 thousand people. A number of statistics express the opinion that on average it is approximately 10% of the number. A very probable figure is two million, plus two more, taking into account those who are not constantly here.

Migrants are also a very vague category: a person has arrived, lives here for three years, five years, but he, for example, is not a citizen. Migration experts write that there are not so many seasonal workers, mainly people come for a fairly long time. But there is Moscow, and there is an area: someone comes from the region, is here for some time. In total, I think, four, or even five million, will be gained, but two million live constantly.

Sergey Medvedev: I think, in the perception of people, there are primarily images, photographs, these two holidays - praying people who burn out movement on the Olympic Prospekt. In the eyes of the layman, this acquires a completely apocalyptic scale.

Sofya Ragozina: Igor said about conditionally Islamofobic experts who sometimes underestimate the numbers. But sometimes they overstate to show: here, look, there are much more of them! The impending mass is terrifying. Manipulation of numbers - one of the rather significant strategies for creating an awesome image of Muslims. Moreover, this applies not only to statistics. You can write: "The multimillion -dollar crowds of Muslims again created a crush in the subway Prospekt Mira" or: "A crowd of exalted Muslims," this is what was really found in articles. Yes, such information farms are clinging to, because it apparently lays down on some kind of formed stereotype, and such plots strengthen it even more.

Sergey Medvedev: In your study, you looked at the frequency of the use of epithets, and the most common word along with the word "Islam" - "radical". This is a ready -made phrase: "followers of radical Islam."

Sofya Ragozina: This is opposed by the phrase "traditional Islam." This is such a simplified division of Islam: there is a “good” (traditional, moderate, correct, loyal to the authorities), and there is a “bad” - radical, Salafi, Wahhabian. Nobody delves into the details and subtleties of terminology.

Sergey Medvedev: Mass consciousness simplifies, polarizes and alienates very strongly. Apparently, this is the image of “another”, a man in the same skullcap or a woman in a hijab, still did not take root even in such a large metropolis as Moscow.

Igor Alekseev: In my opinion, there is much more political technological manipulation. A few years ago, these conversations about the crowds that filled the street were much more audible than in the last two or three years. This occurs in periods: sometimes a degree of discussions with pedaling xenophobic elements increases, sometimes decreases. I would not exaggerate the xenophobia of the townspeople, although it should not be blown: there is still a problem. But here we must understand that it is, of course, including manipulation. After all, if this had not been fueled with a mediocre to such an extent, then most likely, the adaptation would have happened much easier. Muslim communities do a lot of Moscow communities in order to imagine the image of Islam, at least in Moscow, as quite compatible with the Moscow way of life. This is a tent of Ramadan on Poklonnaya Gora, opened for everyone within a month of post, and a lot of educational events, and open days in mosques, and permanent programs for the preparation of imams and Muslim experts who can speak with society in his language.

Igor Alekseev

The contrast of traditional and radical, of course, is very pointed media and ideologically, but it is not entirely groundless and pointless, since this not only comes from state ideologists and political strategists, but also has certain roots in what is happening within the Muslim community itself. The activities of those who are called radicals and extremists are primarily directed towards Muslims themselves, ordinary people who live, work and interact normally with others.

Sergey Medvedev: The paradox is that the radicals become more often the media envoys of Islam. We recall Islam in connection with some extreme manifestations.

Igor Alekseev: But no one sent them on behalf of Islam. This is just such a media focus: from the point of view of the media, a successfully hung aircraft is not news, and the plane crashed is news.

Sergey Medvedev: Russia is now actively flirting with Iran, with Shiites, and in Russia Muslims itself are mostly Sunnis. Russia is much more important to cherish Sunni Islam.

Igor Alekseev: In general, yes. Although, on the other hand, I also do not see a special reason for contrast. There is no reason to conclude that good relations with Sunnis necessarily mean conflict with Shiites. In addition, Russia interacts with Iran as with the state, regardless of wheat this or Sunnis, based on its geopolitical considerations, from its ideas about the role of these countries in the region and in the global international political context.

Sofya Ragozina: Do not mix the domestic political tracking of the relations of the state and the Muslim community and the participation of Russia in the Middle East process. This is a completely different story, there Russia is guided by quite pragmatic interests, interacts with Iran and at the same time maintains relations with Israel. This should be a contradiction, but no, it seems to fit into a single Middle Eastern vector.

Sergey Medvedev: How important are external centers of influence as Saudi Arabia for Russian Islam?

Igor Alekseev: They are certainly important. Some time ago, they were almost unambiguously considered as a danger factor. The discussion of traditional and non -traditional contained such a component that there is our traditional Islam, which has long been adapted in Russia, and the peoples professing Islam are used to living here, they can live among Muslims. But from abroad, including from the Arabian Peninsula, we are exported such a toughened version that is more likely to develop and exacerbate the conflict. This, of course, has a lot of propaganda moves.

Islam is very diverse within itself. There are different Islamic schools, trends, religious, political, legal directions. Inside the Islamic world has never stopped and today a rather tense discussion continues about what it means to be a Muslim in the conditions of this particular time. And the radicalization of Islam is partly the shape and manifestation of this intra -Islamic discussion. There may be different versions inside the same so -called Saudi Islam: there are both more radical and completely moderate things. Saudi Arabia itself is actively fighting its radicals inside, this is almost the main enemy of international Islamic extremism, judging by the declarations of today's Saudi leadership.

Sofya Ragozina: Still, there is such a trend: we seem to be friends with them, we are building some kind of relationship on the political track, but as for the Islamic foreign policy, the echoes of the Chechen war, the image of the terrible Saudi Wahhabita, is still heard here.

Sergey Medvedev: "Wahhabit" and "Salafit" - Words -Broupings.

Sofya Ragozina: "Saudi Wahhabis", "Foreign emissaries" ... Young people left in the 90s, received education there, and they returned some wrong, went into the forests: all this radicalized the situation in the North Caucasian regions. In my opinion, this trend for the securitization of Islam, its consideration from the point of view of security still takes place.

Sergey Medvedev: The very expression "Islamic literature" has a negative connotation. It would seem that simple educational projects, schools immediately cause the FSB, especially when it comes not about Moscow, but about the Caucasus.

Sofya Ragozina: Rather, so that it does not cause FSB attention, for example, an Islamic Academy is built, which is positioned as a revival or creation of a Russian Islamic Theological School.

Igor Alekseev: Moreover, this is stated through the lips of the President of the Russian Federation.

Sofya Ragozina: That is, "we do not need Saudi and Egyptian centers, we will have our own school, and we will prepare our right theologians."

Sergey Medvedev: The Imam of the historical mosque of Moscow Rufat-Khazrat Akhmetjanov argues.

Rufat-Khazrat Akhmetjanov: a Russian person is inquisitive, this is a natural scientist, he tries to gain the truth, understand his role in this world. These searches often lead people to Islam, because it is quite simple for understanding. Moreover, Islam in the understanding of many Russian people is a religion in which a harmonious view of life is embodied. People understand that there is some kind of balance between attitude to worldly life and to the life of the future.

The Muslim has religion in the foreground. He has a duty not only in relation to people, but also in relation to the Almighty

The Muslim has religion in the foreground. He needs to observe the balance in relations in society, in relations with his family, parents, co -religionists, with everything that surrounds him, and also not to forget why the Almighty created it. He has a duty not only in relation to people, to society, but also in relation to the Almighty, who created it not just like that, but for some purpose. From the point of view of a Muslim, this goal is declared as worship. A person must worship, obey the will of the Almighty. This applies primarily to ritual practice, the performance of religious duties.

I do not feel such a frantic level of Islamophobia, which was in the 90-2000s. No one has canceled the stupidity of individual local officials, there are these manifestations, but they are no longer as systemic as before.

Sergey Medvedev: Is the degree of Islamophobia really falling?

Igor Alekseev: It seems to me that they still decided to reduce him a little when they discovered what consequences the promotion of Islamophobia produces, as well as the promotion of Islamic extremism: everything is very easily out of control. Here we are struggling with Islamic radicalism with the help of Islamic radicalism, and then we will have to deal with Islamofobic radicalism, when neo -Nazis, racists, radical atheists will go out into the street. This is a largely controlled problem.

Sergey Medvedev: If we are talking about an increasing number of Muslims, about the increasing influence of Islam on public life, are there any contradictions with the secular character of the state?

Sofya Ragozina

Sofya Ragozina: It seems to us that Islam is all so one, homogeneous, the same everywhere. In fact, Islam in the Moscow mosque, Islam in the French mosque and Islam somewhere in Indonesia is like heaven and earth: completely different contexts, different stories. The same can be said about Saudi Islam, which is considered to be a horror story: there is a whole spectrum, from the liberal direction to ultra -organization. In addition, there is also the so -called Euroislam.

Sergey Medvedev: Those forms of cohabitation of Islam with the state, the integration of Islam into a society that has developed today in large Russian megacities ... This Islam is not a royal, demanding of a person, to his behavior in a public space requiring some purity from others?

Sofya Ragozina: No, just the opposite. In many ways, a new infrastructure is created, the city itself is modified.

Sergey Medvedev: I often visit the Cathedral Mosque , the whole quarter is changing there: some free shops, restaurants, and local ads are opening along the Islamic community.

Sofya Ragozina: This is always a bilateral process. Do not see threats here. Not only Muslims adapt, but also the city, residents also adapt, somehow accept the Muslim community.

Sergey Medvedev: Russia in this sense is an example of a certain successful interconnection of Christian and Islamic cultures? Again, very often you hear horror stories about Europe: Islamic quarters in Brussels, Paris, London. In Moscow, I do not see the appearance of Muslim ethnic ghetto, where radical imams, schools and so on appear.

Igor Alekseev: In Moscow, this process is simply not at the stage when a ghetto may appear. Here the problem is not even in quantity, but in the often noted conflicting potential of the European situation: its roots are not confessional, but ethnocultural, socio-historical. This is the legacy of the colonial system. If these people were not Muslims, difficulties with their integration would be no less. This perfectly shows the experience of the same African Americans in the United States.

Sergey Medvedev: In Russia, Central Asia is also in the post -colonial context: they come to the metropolis.

Igor Alekseev: In Russia there are Muslims who have been living here for a long time, for many centuries - these are, first of all, Tatars. Есть те, кто живет чуть меньше, — это Северный Кавказ, который был, конечно, колонизирован Российской империей, но сегодня ни дагестанцы, ни чеченцы, ни уж тем более кабардинцы, балкарцы и карачаевцы не чувствуют себя в России людьми третьего мира и носителями какого-то колониального комплекса. Поэтому риск возникновения постколониальной ситуации может усматриваться в связи со среднеазиатской миграцией. Ведь особенной миграции с Ближнего Востока у нас нет, как и не было там никогда особых колоний.

Выходцы из Средней Азии — это все-таки люди либо последних советских, либо первых постсоветских лет, и там еще очень сильно наследие советской модели интеграции, которая сама по себе была постколониальной. Ранний советский проект декларировался как антиколониальный, как проект освобожденных народов Востока. Было обращение к трудящимся мусульманам России, подписанное Лениным и Сталиным, в котором декларировалось, что советская Россия встает на их сторону в борьбе с западным империализмом и колониализмом, во вторую очередь - со своими местными баями и ханами.

Другое дело, что со временем, за десятилетия существования, с постепенной трансформацией советского проекта в неоимперский вариант, начиная с Великой отечественной войны, с позднего Сталина и дальше, характер изменился, декларации почти угасли или остались исключительно на словах. Но все равно очень многие выходцы из Средней Азии, приезжающие сюда, даже те, которые родились в постсоветские годы, все равно родились у советских родителей. С ситуацией неприятия их как "черных" они сталкиваются здесь, оттуда они не приезжают с этим сознанием, там они привыкли к совершенно другому. Там же всегда жили и до сих пор живут русские.

Сергей Медведев: Насколько здесь люди готовы жить рядом с мечетью? На Западе это одна из больших конфликтных точек. В Швейцарии существует запрет на строительство новых мечетей.

Теракт 11 сентября - это была точка абсолютного невозврата в формировании и исламофобских настроений, и антиисламофобских движений

Софья Рагозина: В Европе совершенно иной социально-исторический и социально-политический контекст. Теракт 11 сентября - это была точка абсолютного невозврата в формировании и исламофобских настроений, и антиисламофобских движений. Понятно, что на Россию это не оказало решающего воздействия. Здесь это во многом и советское наследие, и официальная установка: ислам — это органичная часть российской социокультурной традиции, несмотря на все травмы чеченской войны, на неоимперскую политику Советского Союза (а сейчас это позиционируется еще с большей силой). На Западе это меньшинства, а здесь — одна из традиционных конфессий. Это никакие не другие, на самом деле это единый организм.

Сергей Медведев: Говорит муфтий Москвы, главный имам Соборной мечети Москвы Ильдар-Хазрат Аляутдинов .

Ильдар-Хазрат Аляутдинов: Почему люди приходят в ислам? Мусульмане и не мусульмане пересекаются, общаются. Человек иных религиозных взглядов видит у мусульман некий эталон праведности, определенные принципы, которым те беспрекословно следуют: это, безусловно, привлекает людей. Ведь в целом в мире, где мы живем, эти принципы утрачены: много двуличия, лицемерия, ситуаций, когда в храме ты один, а за его пределами совсем другой. Когда один видит в другом некую целостность, это, безусловно, привлекает.

Порой ко мне приходят молодые люди и люди в возрасте: мы хотим принять ислам. Я всегда с ними беседую, спрашиваю, какая причина за этим стоит. Если я вижу, что это некий крик души, внутренний позыв, человек до конца не разобрался, я призываю, чтобы он взял Коран, ознакомился еще с какими-то книгами и осознал, что такое ислам. Человек, приняв его, должен в последующем измениться. Порой люди не бывают к этому готовы. Ислам — это довольно непростой образ жизни, есть определенные запреты и предписания, которые мы должны соблюдать.

Наверное, в большей степени ислам принимают девушки и женщины, выходя замуж за мусульман. Не так давно было принято каноническое заключение о том, что межконфессиональные браки на территории России не допускаются. Это тоже в какой-то степени сподвигает девушек к тому, чтобы изучать и понимать ислам. Но это в любом случае ответственность, это означает не просто сменить одежду, все значительно сложнее.

Сергей Медведев: Насколько это распространенное явление — принятие ислама людьми не исламского происхождения?

Софья Рагозина: Тут нет никакой официальной статистики. Есть убеждение, что девушки чаще переходят в ислам, и это всегда сопряжено с какими-то репрессиями, насилием, неосознанным выбором: она поддалась какому-то увлечению и приняла ислам. На самом деле это не всегда так. Моя коллега Ева Рогар, аспирантка одного из американских университетов, два года жила в России и брала интервью у многих женщин, принявших ислам в последние пять лет: это был вполне осознанный выбор.

Часто это повод для манипуляций. Например, целый ряд экспертов указывает на проблему неофитов практически как на проблему безопасности: чем больше становится новых мусульман, тем больше эта угроза. Есть проблема, которая ставится, в том числе, и в дискурсе безопасности, — это мусульманские неофиты в тюрьмах. Это часто становится инфоповодом. Такая тенденция объективно есть, но ее сложно померить. Алармисты всегда кричат, что в тюрьмах растут какие-то ужасные джамааты, радикализуются, скоро эти люди выйдут из тюрьмы, и все будет плохо.

Игорь Алексеев: Так называемые тюремные джамааты, как правило, придерживаются наиболее радикальных интерпретаций. Те религиозно активные мусульмане, которые находятся в заключении, как правило, находятся там по религиозно-политическим мотивам, по обвинениям в экстремизме или терроризме. Другие заключенные под влиянием этих пассионарных групп еще более сплачиваются вокруг своей религиозной идентичности, видя целостность, стойкость и непоколебимость этих людей. Заключенные, пришедшие из не мусульманской среды, часто люди со сломанными судьбами, с большими проблемами, находят в этом определенный выход.

Сергей Медведев: Возможен ли момент, когда Россия станет преимущественно исламской страной?

Игорь Алексеев: Это возможно сугубо теоретически и в очень отдаленной перспективе: никакая динамика об этом не свидетельствует. Даже сейчас 20 миллионов — это завышенная оценка. Для того чтобы их стало, например, 80, нужно не меньше столетия. Кроме того, падает рождаемость: она падает и в мусульманской среде при переселении в мегаполисы и при получении женщинами образования. Я думаю, что демографическая динамика мусульманских сообществ будет приближаться к общероссийской, а не наоборот. Для того, чтобы здесь образовалось мусульманское большинство, есть единственный путь — ускоренное вымирание не мусульманской части населения. Этому мусульмане помочь не могут, это мы можем сделать только сами с использованием ресурсов нашего общества, государства и всего прочего.

Сергей Медведев: Вы видите в мире изменения цивилизационного, культурного баланса, если посмотреть в перспективе 2050 года, когда ислам займет доминирующие позиции, сопоставимые с теми, которыми владела христианская цивилизация в последние 500 лет?

Софья Рагозина: Это изначально провокативный вопрос. Мы живем в постколониальное время, тем не менее, европоцентризм никуда не делся, как бы ни провозглашали отказ от всяких ориенталистских убеждений. Другое дело, что мы забываем про такие центры мусульманского мира, как Южная и Юго-Восточная Азия, Индонезия, Малайзия. Индонезия — страна с наибольшим мусульманским населением, и там своя модель встраивания ислама в социально-политическую систему. У них все получилось.

Сергей Медведев: Для себя я делаю вывод, что в России совершенно уникальный опыт позитивной взаимной интеграции мусульманского и традиционного, секуляризованного постправославного населения. Этот опыт — то, что Россия может дать внешнему миру на фоне тех цивилизационных конфликтов и расколов, которые мы наблюдаем на примере терактов, происходящих в европейских городах.