"He turned into a black box"

Putin and Mishustin clean the office. Kozak, Medinsky, Skvortsova, Oreshkin and a number of seemingly faithful comrades are leaving. Why are they all?! Politicians, economists and political scientists are discussing: Stanislav Belkovsky, Alexey Mikhailov , Leonid Gozman and Gleb Pavlovsky .

Video version of the program

Elena Rykovtseva: We prepared for a meeting of the new government here. With us, Stanislav Belkovsky and Alexei Mikhailov. It is not possible to celebrate yet, because they pull and pull. Although we already have a list of retirees. What are they still conferring there? It would seem that they should already know perfectly in advance who will be replaced to whom. Why are they pulling?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Vladimir Putin loves to be late, he must formally sign these decrees, and he never does anything on time. Vladimir Putin should meet with Mikhail Mishustin officially, there should be a dad with signed decrees, and Vladimir Vladimirovich, it seems to me, was delayed in the pool or on the hockey platform.

Elena Rykovtseva: According to other sources, he has been sitting with Mishustin from three in the afternoon.

Stanislav Belkovsky: But this does not prevent him from sitting with Mishustin in the pool or on the hockey platform.

Alexey Mikhailov: If without jokes, then personal questions are always the most acute. You just need to understand that citizens are actually all these personalities. And the elite that can occupy is very important for them. Who will be in their swings, on what conditions they will come, whether they will have any powers in the set of their deputies and so on.

Elena Rykovtseva: Do you admit that now in these offices they can replay something?

Alexey Mikhailov: They can replay something.

Elena Rykovtseva: Roughly speaking, Mr. Medinsky will be able to persuade at the last minute to leave it at his post?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Vladimir Medinsky will not be able to, he is ready for this. But, for example, whether Anton Siluanov will be the first deputy prime minister or will just remain a minister, and the leading to him is not identical to him by Andrei Belousov, now an assistant. Because Andrei Belousov was going to be the first deputy prime minister in the previous Medvedev government, but Dmitry Anatolyevich was afraid of hardware competition from this official, so Siluanov was the first vice. There are many such questions. A small sociological study of moods in the elites, especially bureaucratic, which was conducted by the Belkovsky telegram channel, from where I have been drawing a lot of information recently, shows that these elites are in a state of demoralization. For them, Vladimir Putin finally turned into a black box, the logic of his decisions is opaque. In this sense, even in these environments, interest in decisions made is seriously reduced, because the possibilities of influence on them are also rapidly reduced. There is a good political science joke about how Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev invites Alexei Nikolayevich Kosygin, chairman of the Council of Ministers: "Alexey Nikolaevich, something I can’t understand how the Soviet economy works." - "Now I will explain everything to you, Leonid Ilyich." - "No, I myself can explain, I can’t understand." Here in this state there are now Russian elites. Even I can explain, but understand what is happening in the head of Vladimir Putin, who is finally transformed into an absolute monarch, which is not called to report to anyone, is more difficult.

Alexey Mikhailov: The most interesting thing is that, most likely, Vladimir Vladimirovich himself also does not quite understand what is happening in his head, which the whole process leads to than he should end. He leaves too many open doors, gives too many false traces to demoralize the elite so that it does not unite against him. He confuses traces, an ordinary gebest story.

Elena Rykovtseva: Let's start with these fines, with a group of people, which those who leave did not please. Let's start with Dmitry Medvedev.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Once Dmitry Anatolyevich had to be fused. If we look at the logic of the personnel decisions of Vladimir Vladimirovich, it has been formed from approximately 2004, when he became completely independent in fundamental personnel decisions, before that he nevertheless closed to the family of Boris Yeltsin, he had the planted father Mikhail Kasyanov and so on in the premieres. We see that he always promoted in the premieres not political figures, but put political figures behind the backs of the prime ministers. For example, he was Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, who was clearly not seen as the heir to Putin. When Mikhail Efimovich himself suddenly suddenly realized that he could become the heir to Putin, he was immediately removed, replaced with Victor Zubkov. Viktor Alekseevich Zubkov himself, who in his interview said in 2011 on the occasion of his anniversary, that he also wanted to become a successor at a certain moment. Vladimir Vladimirovich said: no, there will be different, you still sit as the prime minister. At first, Medvedev was seen as a successor, then Sergey Ivanov, then again Medvedev. Medvedev came out from behind the premiere back, became president. Apparently, Vladimir Putin, before the transit of the authorities is called in Russia, is a separate question whether it is actually transit power and to what extent, it makes the position of the prime minister and the successor - it will be two different people. The prime minister will be Mishustin, and someone else, but not Medvedev.

Elena Rykovtseva: Does Medvedeva retired at least something economic, at least something related to the life of the country, with the Socialist, with finances, or is it all exclusively the history of under-junis?

Aleksey Mikhailov: Medvedev was a long time as a candidate for shooting. Firstly, because Navalny ran into him, but he could not be removed, because Putin does not make any decisions under pressure. It was necessary to wait a long period so that it did not look like a decision made under pressure. Secondly, he hung up pension reform and raising taxes on Medvedev, extremely unpopular measures. Medvedev reported for this, he campaigned for this. And only at the very last moment Putin went out, spread his hands: there is no other way out. What is, from my point of view, full lies, because it was not necessary to increase the retirement age, this would not bring and bring nothing but harm to the Russian economy. Medvedev had to be removed sooner or later, he sat down, he was tired. There are two options: either he was removed completely, or he was removed for a while from public opinion, a certain reaction of the public to him, so that all this is forgotten, this whole negativity, this yellow duck, pension reform, and so on. In two years, Medvedev will be as new, maybe. Putin leaves many new doors. The State Council may be a federal law, but there is nothing so far.

Elena Rykovtseva: With Medvedev, it is clear that he can arise again, like from a snuffbox, there is no need to dramatize?

Stanislav Belkovsky: By the way, I want to note that, with all due respect to Alexei Navalny, the main sources of Dmitry Medvedev’s income, which Vladimir Vladimirovich is well aware of, were not shown in the film "He is not Dimon for you." Only the tops were shown there, but not the roots.

Elena Rykovtseva: Today the Duma approved this decree that there is a new position in the Security Council. The creation of new posts is also money. Fill Dmitry Anatolyevich with new work.

Stanislav Belkovsky: I saw his motorcade several times when he was the prime minister - these are 7 cars, in the center an armored Aurus, like Putin's. According to the personnel patronage logic of Vladimir Vladimirovich, if someone grabbed some kind of piece, then he remains, for example. Let's not forget that Medvedev uses all sorts of benefits as a former president, and not only as a former prime minister or current deputy chairman of the Security Council. The residence in the hucks is still presidential.

Elena Rykovtseva: He is still laid by the center of Medvedev, like Yeltsina.

Stanislav Belkovsky: First there will be a Putin Center. I already proposed his concept, by the way. The main building should be Anichkov Palace in St. Petersburg, because it is Anichkov that the palace is the favorite place of Nicholas I.

Elena Rykovtseva: Your forecast, what will they give near Medvedeva?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Give it early.

Elena Rykovtseva: Vyacheslav from Moscow, hello.

Student: There is such a Kiriyenko, it was a technical prime minister in order to do something not very good. Now he is in internal policy. Do you think such an impression, judging by Medvedev’s behavior, that we have a technical premiere? Maybe Mishustin himself does not know. From nowhere, one and this one took up.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Mishustin can survive and disagree everyone as a technical prime minister. Sergei Kiriyenko now occupies the position that he must occupy, behind him is the influential clan of the gentlemen Kovalchukov, he will be where his homeland will throw in the person of Kovalchuk.

Elena Rykovtseva: Leonid, what were the reasons for the resignation? It does not seem to me that it is very expected - with Dmitry Anatolyevich. From the offense, Dmitry Anatolyevich, as reported by RBC today, unsubscribed on his Instagram from the government account, despite the fact that the government did not unsubscribe from Dmitry Anatolyevich.

Leonid Gozman: Why should I worry about the psychological state of Dmitry Anatolyevich, I just don’t give a damn about him. The fact that he was offended is even pleasant, it suggests that he has human feelings, that not everyone has it. All this actually does not matter. The features of the language are also important. When you say a "government", there is an idea that these are people who make some decisions. In fact, Vladimir Vladimirovich decided to completely rebuild the system. I will not be surprised if, in accordance with the new Constitution, the President of the Russian Federation appoints the chairman of the State Council of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin Putin, and we will be told that your beloved West is full of life positions. For example, judges of the Supreme Court in the United States. In this new Iranian structure, in which this God is given a given god directly appointed and unlimited, neither time, nor laws, nor anyone, in this situation, the government does not matter at all. No one matters except for this main person.

Elena Rykovtseva: You can actually approach any topic of any of our conversations: it does not matter, and it does not matter, nothing matters at all. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, who reigns over everything. What do we need to be silent now?

Leonid Gozman: No, completely wrong. It is important that the country's last remnants are not democracy, of course, there are no democracy for a long time, but the last remnants of civilization, the last remnants of a picture of a civilized country. Industry is established in the country, not even autocracy, but autocracy, when a person is at the head, not limited at all. We must talk about this, we must oppose this, from my point of view. It is not necessary to speak out against this because we can stop it now, I think we cannot stop it now, we must oppose this because when this whole marshkel passes, and it will pass sooner or later, on the ruins that remain from this system, it will be necessary to build a new country. And this new country should be built by people with self -esteem and a sense of civic responsibility. Therefore, protests against this disgrace are of great importance, they are extremely important, as it seems to me. Therefore, I do not urge to be silent, I urge to talk about what really matters. But indeed, Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev does not matter, let him understand themselves, and the importance has the fact that autocracy is established in the country.

Elena Rykovtseva: Why, if Vladimir Putin wants to create the appearance of a global change, he leaves people, and this is Sergey Shoigu, Sergey Lavrov is especially so omitable, mild foreign policy, it would seem, even though there will be changes. There will be no changes. Why does he leave these old ones?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Sergey Lavrov, I think, remains the Minister of Foreign Affairs until May 9, 2020, when there will be the most important event of modern Russian history, a celebration about the 75th anniversary of victory, which will either agree with Western leaders or not. The coming of Donald Trump is expected, Emmanuel Macron already promised, confirmed his presence. The main candidate for the replacements of Mr. Lavrov is considered Anton Vaino, the current head of the presidential administration, a diplomat in education and the first specialty.

Elena Rykovtseva: Will they let Peskov grow up to the minister?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Peskov - the format of an assistant rather, a person, being a high -ranking, he is the first deputy head of the presidential administration. Peskov is a very large boss, but still this is a big boss who knows how to hold the microphone. Vaino is a favorite trusted apparatchik Vladimir Putin. Given that foreign policy for Putin is much more important than domestic, this in itself says something. As for Sergei Shoigu, all kinds of rumors have been going on for a long time that Valentina Matvienko can go, for example, to the State Council in order to heat his place to Vladimir Putin, and then Sergei Shoigu will take her place in the Federation Council. His place is Alexei Dyumin, the current governor of the Tula region, in the recent past, his favorite adjutant, that is, the presidential guard. But since the law on the State Council is not yet ready, Sergei Shoigu remains in the same place where he is.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, your forecast that these people who are associated very closely with old politics will still move from this new government?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Politics in itself does not change much. The fact that they are associated with old politics is just good. Two people annexed Crimea: in military terms, Shoigu and Dyumin the notorious, who was the commander of the forces of special operations in the Crimea, after which his sharp career growth began.

Elena Rykovtseva: He also wanted image changes.

Stanislav Belkovsky: Who told you that he wanted image changes? I have not heard anything about it. On the contrary, he collapses his current policy, which is unshakable, non -alternative, meeting the fundamental interests and aspirations of the multinational people of the Russian Federation.

Elena Rykovtseva: When he changed the government, it would seem that he wanted it all to look completely fresh, new, young. Look at these faces - the new prosecutor is young.

Stanislav Belkovsky: The new prosecutor is a young simply fierce, and behind him is already, maybe not such a young Igor Ivanovich Sechin.

Elena Rykovtseva: Mishustin took a very young boy, his deputy from the tax. The faces are changing.

Stanislav Belkovsky: But neither age characteristics, nor, most importantly, ideological, because the philosophy of the government remains unchanged.

Elena Rykovtseva: Then why do they completely change them all if philosophy remains?

Stanislav Belkovsky: Once you need to change, at least once every 10 years. Lavrov and Shoigu are absolutely trusted people.

Elena Rykovtseva: And then Medinsky is not trusted, Medvedev is not trusted. Why did the power block remain unshakable, plus a foreign block?

Alexey Mikhailov: The fact is that we give out the desired for the actual. We want something to change, so that at least the image to change the government. But the fact is that Oreshkin came instead of Ulyukaev, did our economic policy somehow change? Oreshkin did not change anything. Reshetnikov will come instead of Oreshkin or someone else, it doesn’t matter if he will do exactly the same. The policy does not change, the policy remains.

Elena Rykovtseva: Why not put vaino from cosmetic reasons instead of Lavrov, if the policy does not change?

Alexey Mikhailov: You can change, you can not change.

Stanislav Belkovsky: It is inconvenient to change Lavrova before the 70th birthday, it is inconvenient to change it before May 9, and there, you look, and change.

Elena Rykovtseva: Lidia Pavlovna, hello.

Student: I would not change, but kicked everyone out. Because since 2012, presidential decrees have not been carried out. You need to change the brains, actually.

Elena Rykovtseva: Today Dmitry Peskov agreed, it rarely happens, with all kinds of gossip, he said: yes, there is a share of truth in this. Rumors went about the government’s resignation that there were unconscious elements in the office of ministers who did not like everything, they opposed the investment of such large funds in benefits and breakfasts, etc., paid for it. Peskov said that I would not deny that yes, there is a share of truth in these rumors.

Alexey Mikhailov: This does not mean anything at all. The government has a reserve annual federal budget of 16.5 trillion rubles. How many for demographic initiatives they gave out - 450 billion.

Elena Rykovtseva: So you do not believe that they did not want to support their president in this?

Alexey Mikhailov: They don’t care. Siluanov will be told to allocate 450, he will allocate 450, they will say to allocate 300, and will allocate 300. Siluanov anyway. In 2019, the budget was not spent on trillion rubles - this is a gift to Medvedev Mishustin.

Станислав Белковский: Основное бремя расходов несут бедные в этой экономике, а не богатые. Так и останется, независимо от персонального состава правительства.

Елена Рыковцева: Мы сейчас посмотрим сюжет, кто придет, кто останется.

PLOT:

По сообщению ряда СМИ, на своих постах останутся министр обороны Сергей Шойгу , министр иностранных дел Сергей Лавров, заместители председателя правительства Татьяна Голикова и Юрий Борисов , министр финансов Антон Силуанов .

Александр Новак сохраняет своё место на посту министра энергетики.

Не войдут в новый состав правительства вице-премьеры Дмитрий Козак, Алексей Гордеев и Виталий Мутко , а также министр экономического развития Максим Орешкин, министр просвещения Ольга Васильева , министр труда и соцзащиты Максим Топилин , министр культуры Владимир Мединский.

Новым министром экономического развития станет Максим Решетников. Ранее он руководил департаментом экономической политики и развития Москвы.

Министра просвещения Ольгу Васильеву сменит глава Рособрнадзора Сергей Кравцов, работавший сфере образования в разных должностях с 2002 года.

На место министра труда и соцзащиты назначают заместителя министра финансов Антона Котяков . Ранее он был министром финансов Московской области.

На пост министра культуры ожидают назначение Ольги Любимовой , дочери ректора Театрального училища имени Щепкина. В последние годы она была главой департамента кинематографии при Минкульте.

Станислав Белковский: Одиозность тех или иных фигур в правительстве, о которой говорят наши слушатели, тоже не может быть измерима ни по какой объективной шкале. Возьмем, например, Владимира Мединского. Ему на смену идет Ольга Любимова, а было много кандидатов – от Олега Добродеева до Сергея Новикова, который креатура Сергея Кириенко и Ковальчуков.

Елена Рыковцева: А Ямпольскую даже не рассматривали?

Станислав Белковский: Ямпольская – это Никита Михалков. Он сейчас немножко дистанцирован от Владимира Владимировича, поэтому сейчас не в приоритете его кандидатуры. Ольга Любимова не только дочь Бориса Любимова, известнейшего театрального критика, которым лично я еще зачитывался в театральной жизни в 80-е годы прошлого века, но она классик православного телевидения. В свои нежные 39 лет она прошла огромный путь на канале "Московия", на канале "Спас", притом что она училась в православном лицее и оттуда ушла, чуть ли не стала протестанткой, но потом вернулась в лоно православия. Она олицетворяет этот тренд, а также она директор департамента кинематографа, а мы знаем, какое у нас важнейшее из искусств вместе, как говорил Ленин, с цирком – кино и цирк. Цирк у нас есть, с ним все в порядке, надо еще наладить кино. Но Владимир Мединский на своем посту утверждал два тезиса основных. Первое: то, что делается за государственный счет в российской культуре, должно нравиться Владимиру Путину, а если вы хотите делать что-то иное, то делайте это за свой счет, цензуры нет. Второе, что он утверждал на этом посту, что министр культуры должен нравиться Владимиру Путину, а не художественным средам, как стремились делать все его предшественники. И в этом смысле он абсолютно преуспел. Новый министр будет делать то же самое. Может быть, Ольга Любимова чуть помоложе и покрасивее Владимира Мединского, ей 39 лет, она весьма миловидная, но я не специалист по мужской красоте, поэтому не готов сравнивать госпожу Любимову с господином Мединским. Но ничего качественно нового в политике Минкульта не будет, будет один одиозный министр, другой. Одиозность в данном случае вопрос субъективный, потому что Владимир Мединский, может быть, излишне откровенно, излишне искренне говорил, за эту искренность мы считаем его одиозным.

Елена Рыковцева: Виталий Мутко больше не работает в правительстве. Ему поступило предложение возглавить госкомпанию "Дом.РФ". What is it?

Станислав Белковский: Это дочерняя компания ВЭБа, "Дом.РФ" будет заниматься жилищным строительством. То есть человек пошел на реальную плотную работу с финансовыми потоками. Потому что вице-премьер – это большая должность, но от финансовых потоков она отделена несколькими прокладками.

Елена Рыковцева: Виталий Мутко относится ровно к тому типу, если провести опрос "Вы за то, чтобы его убрать?" – все скажут: да, сто процентов. Потому что он относится к раздражающему типу. Его держали очень долго.

Станислав Белковский: Потому что Владимир Путин ему полностью доверяет. Есть известный апокриф о том, что когда договаривались о чемпионате мира по футболу, то были три человека на этой решающей встрече: президент ФИФА Йозеф Блаттер, Виталий Мутко и переводчик. А переводчиком был лично Владимир Путин, потому что доверить другому человеку перевод было нельзя.

Елена Рыковцева: Вполне возможно, что он что-то такое знает по поводу допинга, например, знает то, что Путин – знает.

Станислав Белковский: Виталий Мутко – это идеальный путинский министр, как и Владимир Мединский, и многие другие, кто положил живот за други своя, кто принес свою репутацию в жертву Путину. Владимир Путин это высоко ценит, и он таких людей окончательно никогда не сплавляет.

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