Will it be worse further?

• Two -thirds of Russians recognized the presence of political prisoners in the country, and this is a maximum of 16 years.
• In the index of perception of corruption, Russia took 137th place between Honduras and Guinea.

Will it be worse further?

Almost two -thirds of Russians believe that the country has people convicted of their political views or the desire to participate in political life. This was found out by the sociologists of the Levada Center . This week they summed up the results of the December survey and noted that this indicator has reached a historical maximum over 16 years of such studies.

Sociologist Lev Gudkov , director of the analytical center Yuri Levada, will tell about the results of the study.

Video version of the program

Lev Gudkov: The peak of the number of people who believe that there are political prisoners in the country, falls on 2013, after marsh, after mass protests (almost 70%). But this surge was erased quite quickly after the Crimean euphoria, all that followed the annexation of Crimea. And on average, from 20 to 30%held somewhere. Now we clearly see an increase.

This is not just a recognition of the actual situation - strengthening of repression, but also an expression of general anxiety and insecurity. More than half of the Russians believe that the court is not a defender of their rights, freedoms and interests, acts as a tool for protecting those who have power or money, as a tool of political repressions. The feeling of insecurity is caused by a feeling of anxiety, uncertainty, the realization that at any moment you may be under pressure from the police, the FSB and so on.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: Nevertheless, according to the same survey, more than 65% of citizens believe that they are free, they feel personal freedom.

Lev Gudkov: People who believe that there are political prisoners in the country, more among more informed, competent, active citizens. Let's say, among entrepreneurs or heads of the Directorship Corps, these figures rise to 77–78%, that is, almost completely cover the entire number of this group. This just indicates the uncertainty and insecurity, vulnerability and uncertainty of its status, despite the relatively high position and income.

Pensioners and housewives who are excluded from public life feel more free, abstain from this and do not know much about it (as, by the way, youth). Less free, more dependent, just the most educated, more active people, with higher education, and above all, in Moscow, feel. In the capital, the sense of lack of freedom rises to more than half, since Moscow is an educated, more intensively living city, here is stronger and opposition sentiments. Still, this is the only region where anti-Putin sentiments are slightly exceeding the Pro-Putin.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: What do people mean by personal freedom-some kind of political rights and freedoms or what they call "freedom of consumption"?

Pensioners and housewives who are excluded from public life feel more free

Lev Gudkov: Most feels free from state pressure and has in mind the opportunity to consume. They live their private life, not included in any organizations of civil society, without participating in political events, showing a very weak interest in what is happening. Somewhere about 40% monitor what is happening, but this is a spectator interest, as on TV behind a football match: there is no sense of responsibility. And most of it is the freedom of consumption, entertainment, movement ...

Maryana Torocheshnikova: “There is no commandant one, you can go on vacation somewhere, no one comes and does not take the money-it means that they are free.

Lev Gudkov: People of retirement age feel more free, who have the opportunity to compare living conditions now and in Soviet times. Among other things, they have extremely limited requests and opportunities.

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Convicts for political views

Maryana Torocheshnikova: The latest study was conducted at the end of December last year, even before Vladimir Putin went with a message to the Federation Council and began to talk about changes to the Constitution and other ideas. If the survey was conducted now, would the mood have changed a lot?

Lev Gudkov: No. In general, I think it is not clear to people what Putin said. They relate to this quite indifferently, since the authoritarian regime has developed in their minds: Putin is not a democrat, Putin relies on power structures, primarily on the political police, the army, the bureaucracy. And there would be no changes. Rather, we can say that those who can somehow articulate their ideas about changes are about the legislative execution of administrative arbitrariness.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: It turns out that the country has reached the moment when most people understand what is happening, suppressed by what is happening, but they do not want or are not ready to take some decisive actions in order to confront this.

Lev Gudkov: A very small part is ready to resist, understands the dangers of this. And the vast majority - more than 70% - is distanced, alienated from politics and believes that in this way they can save themselves from the wrath of the authorities or persecution, from all dangers associated with the participation in protest shares.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: Can they, in your opinion?

Lev Gudkov: No. Because all the experience from the Soviet era remains. The life principle: “Do not lean out - you will be healthy and you will live longer,” it is this primitive wisdom that holds the entire regime. The regime is not on repression.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And on readiness to accept them?

Lev Gudkov: On indifference and artificial disconnection from what is happening: "They will arrest someone, but not me. Accordingly, this does not concern me." And if any excesses occur, then ... well, such a fatality. At the same time, the level of institutional violence is extremely high. There can be no illusions: according to last year’s survey, which we conducted by order of one human rights organization, 25% of ordinary citizens had conflicts with the police. Moreover, from the point of view of people, they were an object of illegal actions of the police: arbitrariness, rudeness, violence. And 10% of them went through torture or threat of torture.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: This is a huge figure!

Lev Gudkov: Of course, this is uneven throughout the population, it is shifted in the lower social layers, in the poorer, depressive groups that do not have means of protection, but still this is the resource of adaptation to violence and understanding of violence, which, in fact, makes everyday life experience.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: But what should happen for people to be outraged by injustice? The retirement age was raised, they even beat random passers-by during Moscow protest actions, increase taxes, take something else out, change the constitution-and all in the house?

Lev Gudkov: The constitution is least of all bothering people, because they believe that this is such a paper. Either it is a means for Putin to keep a bureaucracy under control, or simply the moment of coordination of different groups of interests, but not the basic law of direct action: people are not aware of this. A very small part believes in the objectivity of law and believes that the Constitution has some kind of own force, as it should be in the rule of law.

What should happen for people to come out? I do not think that this is possible. There may be separate groups of interests. Ivan Golunov was imprisoned - and the journalistic community was indignant. Moreover, this was very successful, because it immediately gave an exit on the media, and this made a very strong impression.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: Not only journalists, but many people who suffered from the so-called "folk" article of the 228th article were indignant in the story with Golunov. Stories that someone was thrown by drugs was unjustly condemned in the drug case, on the Internet they are simply posted by hundreds.

Lev Gudkov: Given how many prisoners have passed through camps and prisons, it is clear that the experience of violence leads people to apathy, to the realization that nothing can be done.

Lev Gudkov

And those who have ever faced the arbitrariness of the police - more than 80% - believe that torture is a common practice, a means to immediately break, humiliate, crush a person. And this experience is transmitted, since the circles from these stories diverge. And even those who did not fall into such situations are already assimilating the practice of this action.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: But when will they be indignant? You said about the workshop solidarity in the Golunov case - will it continue further?

The constitution is least of all bothering people: they believe that this is such a paper, but not the basic law of direct action

Lev Gudkov: Yes, to a large extent. The problem is not that people are unhappy with power or outraged by something. They do not see the means of consolidation and expression of their indignation. This dissatisfaction and indignation is diffuse and spilled, it pours into kitchen conversations. But there is no organization, there is no party, there is no media that could consolidate, articulate this, and give it a wide resonance.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And there is no leader?

Lev Gudkov: Yes. But this is the technology of the current regime: it is aimed at breaking ties between different groups, not to give the opportunity to realize this problem. And the problem of violence, including unlawful, political violence is more or less understandable to people, they feel it almost skin, but do not know what to do: there is no experience, there are no examples of combining solidarity and general performances.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: That is, it will only be worse further?

Lev Gudkov: They will endure. As more than half of our respondents say, "it is difficult to live, but you can endure."

Maryana Torocheshnikova: That is, if only the refrigerators are empty, then they will not endure?

Lev Gudkov: The refrigerators will be empty or something will happen to the pension-well, demonstrative and arrogant violence when they take away the vital. Or war. But the resources of patience in this sense are huge.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And really sociologists now clearly understand the mood of the population of the Russian Federation, including those that report this to Putin? And they understand that while people are suffering, you can still continue in the same spirit?

Lev Gudkov: Sociologists to sociologists to be different. The Kremlin services are aimed at another. There are different organizations, and some, like VTsIOM , work to ensure propaganda or some political shares, while others, as the public opinion fund , measure just social tension.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: Is it possible to predict in the current situation two to three years in advance, what will happen?

Lev Gudkov: Sociology is a descriptive, analytical discipline, and forecasts are still some fortune telling. Sociology can say how events can develop if such a type of social discontent can be channeling into such and such forms of protest (or may not be canalized). They can say how social tension will result in deviant forms: in a certain environment, drunkenness, suicide will increase. This is just a very possible thing. But it is very difficult to see how the protest movement can turn around.

You can measure voltage growth. For example, in 2010, before mass protests, we recorded an increase in discontent and aggression. The first signs of this is a sharp rise in xenophobia, pogroms, more frequent cases of ethnic conflicts and clashes. These were indicators of social tension. But what they will result in and where the tension will break through was very difficult to assume.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And now everything is generally quiet and calm in this sense?

Lev Gudkov: No. Dissatisfaction and irritation remain at a very high level. There was a surge in 2018, after pension reform. When people realized that the state literally climbs into their pocket, this caused great indignation, very strong tension and readiness to go out into the streets with protests. But with purely police measures, it was quickly crushed.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And the process moved to the chronic stage.

Lev Gudkov: That's right. The willingness to go out onto the streets with protests decreased, but irritation has not gone anywhere.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: Accordingly, any bright flash can cause a growing protest?

Lev Gudkov: No, this requires leaders, organization, programs.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And this "clearing" was cleaned.

Between Honduras and Guinea

On January 23, the international non-governmental organization Transparency International has published an annual index of perception of corruption, in which Russia took 137th place-somewhere between Honduras and Guinea, which is not surprising. Even the head of the Accounts Chamber, Alexei Kudrin, said the other day that the damage from corruption in Russia could be measured by trillions of rubles.

Says Anastasia Tishchenko .

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Corruption perception index

Maryana Torocheshnikova: In the studio of Radio Liberty - General Director of TRANSPARENCY International - Russia Anton Command .

Anton, in the certificate we heard about corruption crimes, one of them is the theft and fraud at the Vostochny cosmodrome. The second theft is on the repair of the Solovetsky monastery. And a bribe, that is, corruption, only one. How so?! Can fraud be corruption?

Anton Common: Fraud is fraud, and a bribe is a bribe, that is, these are completely different things. In addition, there is also giving bribes and receipt. And what is interesting: there are more criminal cases of giving a bribe than to receive a bribe, that is, we often catch a businessman than an official. But it must be understood that there are actions of officials who are not crimes in the sense of the Criminal Code, but are corruption: for example, a conflict of interests when a person gives contracts to his friends or relatives and thereby acts not in the interests of a society who put him in this position, but in the interests of his own family and friends. For this, it can be fired in connection with the loss of confidence, well, in extreme cases, you can try to prove that it has damaged the budget, but this will not be a crime.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: That is, it can be assumed that when law enforcement agencies speak of corruption during the construction of the Vostochny Cosmodrome, this kind of corruption is meant: the money diverged somewhere, but where is it incomprehensible?

Anton Malaminov: Eastern Cosmodrome is also interesting: it was mentioned in the plot that there are still no suspects in this matter.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: only losses, damage.

Anton Malaminov: The former Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin is led by all this case, so I suspect that law enforcement agencies, perhaps, would like to find suspects there, but they would not dare.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: And this can be considered as corruption ties?

Anton Mind: I don’t know, maybe they just do not dare, or maybe these are corruption ties. It is difficult to say whether law enforcement agencies are involved that there are still no suspects and accused.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: As for the fresh Transparency International index: as far as I understand, over the past few years the points that Russia is gaining approximately the same, but the place that it takes in the corruption perception index may vary significantly. In my opinion, in 2015, Russia was in 119th place, although there were 29 points, and now 28-and the 137th. How is it?

Anton Mind

Anton Malaminov: You can not particularly look at the place. Several countries occupy one place at once: if they scored the same score-28, then everyone received 137th place. This is an index, not a rating, so the score itself is important, not a place. Countries can overtake each other, changes are possible between them due to the fact that some countries fall and some fall out. Russia has a stable 28. In fact, we are not even interested in whether we will have 26, 28 or 31. The fact is that all this is very, very bad.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: Why does Russia from all the former Soviet republics occupy such a low place?

Anton Malaminov: Russia is very much in sight, so everything that happens with us is important for the world community. No one except us, from the former Soviet republics, does not produce wars, expansions. No one, besides us, does such extravagant acts as, for example, "let's now cancel the supremacy of international law in the constitution." And when Russia says that "we do not really want to recognize the priority of international law on its territory," this may also have very serious consequences for other countries.

Maryana Torocheshnikova: simply because Russia is a member of many international treaties.

Anton Common: Many people are a member of international treaties. But if someone has bursts out, then you can somehow pacify it, introduce some sanctions-and they will more or less calm down. And Russia in this sense is like a violent patient: when it disperses, it will not seem a little. Therefore, to Russia, as to any large country, more attention, it is more discussed. And we are not particularly believed in the world after all our stories, for example, with poisoning in London, all sorts of Chepigami and Mishkins ...

Maryana Torocheshnikova: "Polish people."

Anton Malamov: Yes. Already, at least from the West, experts and politicians came to the understanding that our politicians could not be very believed. Here in the KGB they taught that "you have a legend," and they acted as they act as part of this legend. А на самом деле это имитация цивилизованного поведения.

Марьяна Торочешникова: Отсюда и эта цифра – 28 баллов?

В элите должна возникать конкуренция идей, а иначе мы окажемся совсем в тупике и на каких-то нехороших развилках

Антон Поминов: Да. Так как мы не производим никакой реальной антикоррупционной политики, естественно, она и оценивается реально так, как она существует. То есть на бумаге имитация антикоррупционной политики у нас классная, хорошее антикоррупционное законодательство, но правоприменение просто ужасное.

Марьяна Торочешникова: Как и Конституция до недавнего времени: вроде и ничего, но правоприменение странное.

В России появился новый генеральный прокурор – господин Краснов. И он в первой же своей публичной речи сказал, что планирует создать в стране нетерпимость по отношению к коррупции: "Стоит задача максимально ослабить указанное зло за счет оздоровления правовой среды для жесткого реагирования на любые коррупционные проявления, в отношении которых нужно создать атмосферу нетерпимости". Примерно то же Путин говорит последние несколько лет из года в год. И что-то не получается у них выработать эту нетерпимость.

Антон Поминов: Потому что, несмотря на заявленную политическую волю, ее нет. Все секут ладонью воздух, громко заявляют, но когда доходит до руководства строительства космодрома Восточный, они все куда-то исчезают. Никто не подписывал бумажку, в соответствии с которой деньги ушли не тому подрядчику, никто не принимал актом приемки работы, которые на самом деле не были сделаны. Такое впечатление, что подпись там физически не стоит, ее нельзя распознать.

Была история с Собяниным, когда сносили палатки в Москве и говорили, что бизнесмены прикрываются бумажками. Человек приносит свидетельство о собственности, а Собянин говорит: "Это бумажка". Но эту бумажку ему же выдал какой-то конкретный человек, руководитель управы или какого-то департамента градостроительной политики!

Мне бы, конечно, хотелось верить, что господин Краснов, который имеет репутацию решительного человека, сможет что-то сделать. Ходят слухи, что он даже хотел вызвать на допрос Кадырова.

В мире есть интересные истории. Например, в Перу был президент Фухимори, он назначил спецпрокурора, который расследовал дело неугодного премьер-министра Монтесиноса, и этот спецпрокурор стал тянуть за веревочку – и в результате посадил и премьер-министра, и самого президента Фухимори на 20 с лишним лет. Было большое дело. Вслед за ними полетела еще куча народа.

Марьяна Торочешникова: А в нынешней России это возможно?

Антон Поминов: Теоретически, если пофантазировать, наверное, возможно, если бы суд в этот момент не испугался. И еще важно то, что такие крупные дела расследуют у нас все-таки Следственный комитет и ФСБ. А прокуратура...

Марьяна Торочешникова: Она без зубов.

Антон Поминов: Краснов работал вместе с Бастрыкиным, теперь он будет работать здесь. Я бы особо не придавал значения его словам и тому, что Чайку сменили на него. С одной стороны, хорошо, что Чайку убрали и поставили Краснова, но вопрос, насколько ему развяжут руки или насколько у него самого есть политическая воля. Мне кажется, что она очень ограничена у людей, которые даже и хотели бы что-то сделать: сегодня им просто не разрешают.

Марьяна Торочешникова: А насколько опасна для обычного человека коррупция, о которой говорят и высокие чиновники, и активисты? Насколько она касается пенсионеров и домохозяек, которые, если верить Льву Гудкову, в большинстве своем чувствуют себя свободными?

Антон Поминов: "Пока гром не грянет – мужик не перекрестится". Пока лично твоего дачного участка не коснется интерес какой-нибудь крупной строительный компании, принадлежащей каким-нибудь детям, или лично твой дом не окажется рядом с мусорным полигоном, куда Ротенберги будут вывозить мусор, наверное, тебя это не коснется. Вот на юго-востоке Подмосковья, в Коломенском районе делают свалку. И ведь нужно провести большую интеллектуальную работу, чтобы связать строительство этого полигона с тем, кто его строит, а потом с тем, как они получили этот контракт.

Марьяна Торочешникова: С другой стороны, такие задачи периодически решают и "Transparency International – Россия", и Фонд борьбы с коррупцией. Все это делают достоянием общественности, но реакция на это тех, кто должен реагировать – представителей правоохранительных органов – как правило, нулевая.

Антон Поминов: Я в этом смысле реалист. И когда мы что-то расследуем, исследуем или делаем мониторинг, мы особо-то и не рассчитываем, что правоохранительные органы побегут задерживать этих людей. Мы прекрасно понимаем: скажут, что проведена проверка, и все там как будто бы в рамках закона. Но с другой стороны, никогда не знаешь, где выстрелит. Человека не посадили, против него не завели уголовное дело, но глядишь – спустя несколько лет он уже больше не вице-премьер, а руководит какой-нибудь стройкой космодрома на Дальнем Востоке. Или был какой-нибудь Якунин – против него ФБК про шубохранилища писал, и его уже нет! Он, конечно, вышел на пенсию, но, тем не менее, он уже не на первых ролях.

Марьяна Торочешникова: А насколько Россия пронизана коррупционными схемами? Властная вертикаль каким-то образом коррелирует с коррупционной вертикалью в стране?

Антон Поминов: У нас есть демократические процедуры, которые... не будем говорить, что не работают, потому что когда они совсем не работают, это выглядит еще хуже, чем в России. Это где-то в конце индекса – 170–180-е место. Вот мы выбрали себе в Москве 200 независимых мундепов из скольких-то тысяч. Можно ли сказать, что у нас, например, на муниципальном уровне в Москве вся власть коррумпированная? Наверное, если бы это было так, то независимые мундепы очень быстро закричали бы: "Ой, воруют!" Нет, такого мы не видим.

Существуют ли коррупционные иерархи внутри системы администрирования на федеральном уровне? Видимо, да. Их периодически находят даже правоохранительные органы: то он был губернатором, кавалером орденов, а тут оказался начальником организованной преступной группировки. Но это не значит, что вся страна – организованная преступная группировка.

Марьяна Торочешникова: Это еще можно "вылечить" или только "резать к чертовой матери, не дожидаясь перитонита"?

Антон Поминов: А других вариантов нет: нам придется это "лечить" через политическую конкуренцию. В элите должна возникать конкуренция идей, а иначе мы окажемся совсем в тупике и на каких-то нехороших развилках.