In Germany, “transit of power” broke. Angel Merkel was left without a successor due to the joint vote of the ruling party with the extreme right

The leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (HDS) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced that she would leave this post and would not lead the party in the 2021 parliamentary elections, as a result of which Merkel could change the angel in the chair of the federal chancellor. Kramp-Carrenbaeur was considered a protege Merkel and headed the HDS since December 2018. She went to resign, having failed with the intra -party crisis, caused by the fact that in one of the federal lands the party members were actually in alliance with the extreme right "alternative to Germany." The resignation of Kramp-Carrenbauer tore the most likely script “Power Transit” , which was developed by Merkel. There is almost no doubt that this will strengthen the right, as well as the "green".

In Thuringia, Christian democrats tried to interrupt the left -wing monopoly into power. Oh, in vain!

The resignation of Kramp-Carrenbaeur occurred as a result of a political crisis in one of the 16 German lands-Thuringia, located in the east of Germany, in the territory of the former GDR. In October 2019, in the land elections, the ultra -right “Alternative for Germany” took second place there, gaining 23.4% - this is the best result in its history. But then in the German establishment he was perceived even with relief, because before the elections they feared that the Adg, generally popular in the eastern lands, could win.

The head of Thuringia, like other German lands, elects the local parliament. Since 2014, this post was held by Bodo Ramelov, a member of the Left Party, which represents the opposite land of the German political spectrum and won the land elections. In order to show their disagreement with the rule of the “left”, Christian democrats (in the elections they took third place) supported the candidate of the liberal free-democratic party Thomas Kemmerich.

No one expected him to win, but unexpectedly behind Kemmerich voted the “alternative” - which resulted in a crisis of a national scale. This is the first case in modern Germany, when the ultra -right actually determined the fate of power in the region. Ramelov quoted Hitler on his Twitter, who wrote in 1932: “We achieved the greatest success in Thuringia. There, today we have become a defining party ... Turing parties, which previously formed the government, could not get the majority without our help. ”

Kramp-Carrenbauer was supposed to resolve the crisis-but did only worse

In Germany, an informal taboo had previously cooperated with the ultra -right. Moreover, the most radical representatives of this party are guided by the Thuringian branch of Alternatives, and its members were repeatedly accused of sympathy for neo -Nazis.

Despite the fact that local Christian democrats, apparently, did not know that their candidate would support the “alternative”, they were accused of cooperation with right -wing radicals. Moreover, they were in no hurry to repent at the local CDS - the branches of this party in the former GDR, according to German political scientists, are characterized by some “openness” to the right. Many simply did not see the problem that they accidentally found themselves in the same boat with an alternative.

The task of Kramp-Carrenbauer in this situation was to restore the rebellious department and clearly separate the CDS from the ultra-right-no cooperation, no mention in one context. Now we can say that she failed this task. In an interview with Medusa, Nikolaus Haufler, the head of the CDU party cell in the Hamburg district of St. Pauli, said that the meeting with the one-party members from Tyurinia was “conflicting”, the “chaos” reigned, the parties could not come to the general denominator, and the office had to intervene. “The party was perceived in the party for the last couple of days as a misunderstanding or a nightmare. No one expected that we would react so chaotic and unprepared to the situation in Thuringia, which was not a surprise. Everything got out of control there, ”says Haufler.

The case was aggravated by the fact that, it seemed, the new head of the Cemmerich Türingia was not at all embarrassed and was going to calmly fulfill the duties of the head of the region. Only after the personal intervention of Merkel and the leadership of his own party did he announce a resignation.

Merkel has no other candidate for the role of the successor. The influence of the right can intensify even more

Before becoming a chancellor, Angel Merkel headed the party for many years and prepared the same path for Kramp-Carrenbauer, which also holds the post of Minister of Defense of Germany. However, the conflict with the Thuringian CDU showed that she did not acquire enough supporters, did not control her party and did not become her in it - before the head of the CDU, it was the head of the small land of the SAR with a population of less than a million people. According to critics, Kramp-Carrenbauer could not overcome the provincial complex and acquire federal gloss.

The doubts that it has the necessary qualities in order to head the government, and had arisen earlier. So, last spring, Kramp-Carrenbauer spoke out to tighten the fight against Fakenyuz on the Internet, which was perceived as a call for censorship, and it was forced to correct the Angel Merkel herself. Kramp-Carrenbaeur's own rating is lower than party-in contrast with Merkel, which, on the contrary, has long been more popular than the party as a whole.

Nevertheless, the minister’s decision to resign was a complete surprise for the CDU. One of the "elders" of the party, the former Minister of Internal Affairs and Finance in the Cabinet Merkel Wolfgang Shoible, said that "if we continue to act in a similar way, the next candidate for the chancellors will not be the chancellor." At the same time, the Minister Kramp-Carrenbauer is still as minister.

The problem is that after the resignation of Kramp-Carrenbauer it is not clear who can lead the party and lead it to victory in the next elections. It seems that Merkel does not seem to have a strong candidate among the “moderate” in reserve. The head of the Earth North Rhine, Westphalia and Deputy Kramp-Carrenbauer Armin Lashet, can bring too obediently following the liberal course of Merkel and the lack of charisma, and the Minister of Health Jens SPPA seems too young to unite the party.

The most organized group in the CDS is a conservative “union of values”, which rally critics Merkel and opponents of its migration policy. The candidate of this group Friedrich Mertz is in many respects the antipodent of the Chancellor, and if the power in the party goes to him, this will mean the return of the party to the conservative channel after the Levoliberal experiments of Merkel. His victory may make Chancellor resign ahead of schedule.

German politicians and political scientists are afraid that the CD is now two ways: either to begin to cooperate with the ultra -right, or, conversely, to finally break with conservative values ​​- and thereby also strengthen the position of the ADG, to which the voices of disappointed voters will move away. In any case, the weakened Merkel is forced not only to solve the most severe crisis in Thuringia, but also from scratch to start the process of searching for a successor - and in the conditions of manifold. The benefits of this situation can be extracted not only the extreme right, but also the "green". In ratings, they have long overtook the Social Democrats and are very slightly inferior to Christian democrats. At the time of the CDU crisis, they first have a real chance to win the election (especially if they go ahead of schedule) and achieve the election of their candidate.

Dmitry Vacedin