Alexey Melnikov: "Distant War"

“The main question today is the prospects for a military clash between our country’s army and the Turkish army in Idlib. The first task is to avoid such a scenario. At the same time, the fact that Putin’s military and political adventure in Syria has put our country on the brink of a military clash with Turkey forces us once again return to the question of the goals, costs, results and prospects of our country’s presence in Syria,” writes the publicist on LiveJournal .

“For all these positions, Russian society does not have answers from the country’s leadership. Something (the costs of the war) is completely classified. But the big question is – does the Russian leadership itself have a strategy in Syria? Or is all this more or less improvisation? Putin’s adventure is soon five years old. And observing the actions of the Russian authorities, their statements (the head of state, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense), there is no plan in sight.

In addition, there is another question: how much control does the Russian government have over the actions of our military in Syria? Isn't the political leadership to some extent hostage to action?

It is probably impossible to put forward a good Syrian strategy without having a general understanding of Russia’s position in today’s world and the prospects for its development in the context of our seriously limited capabilities in the context of global competition. And also, of course, artificially created restrictions, thanks to Putin’s failed policies towards Ukraine, Europe and the United States.

At the same time, even if you leave Syria, you need to understand the consequences and the fact that this is unlikely to be done quickly.

In the meantime, what happened was what critics of Putin’s Syrian adventure said five years ago - our country is stuck in Syria. Resources are wasted. The goals are questionable. The achievements are controversial, to say the least. The outlook is unclear.

But for today all this should be put aside. Today, something completely different is true. It will be good if we manage to nullify the hidden military confrontation with Turkey, and prevent it from developing into something more - what Assad needs (he has nothing to lose), but what Russia does not need at all - pulling chestnuts out of the fire. for the sake of serving other people's interests.

These are the results and prospects."