Sberbank simulated the second wave of coronavirus

The coronavirus epidemic in Russia will have two waves - the current spring and autumn, and the severity of the second wave will greatly depend on whether autumn is warm or cold this year, Sberbank's mathematical modeling has shown. today about the global model of the epidemic The President of Sberbank German Gref spoke .

"We have built a mathematical model of the spread of coronavirus in the world and in Russia and are now filling it with data together with the Ministry of Health. There are three scenarios. In Russia, in all three scenarios, the picture looks pretty good compared to other countries."

The model is called Gleam, said Maxim Eremenko, Senior Managing Director of Sberbank's Data Science Competency Development Department.

In the summer, the spread of infection will slow down, the model showed: “the warmer the better, because when it’s cold, the greater the susceptibility” to diseases, he noted.

The forecast for the spread of coronavirus is important for the bank to understand the market reaction: "We are among the first who are interested in preventing this panic, because the financial indicators of both Sberbank and the country as a whole are suffering."

The bank will transfer the model to the Ministry of Health after revision, which will take into account preventive measures - the model turned out to be expectedly sensitive to them, Eremenko said.