Pandemia can cost the world economy of the total GDP of Great Britain - Bloomberg • The Bell • RIMA

Pandemia can cost the world economy of the total GDP of Great Britain - Bloomberg

In 2020, the world economy is threatened with losses from coronavirus pandemia, equivalent GDP of the sixth economy of the world - Great Britain - or almost two GDP of Russia. They will amount to 3%, or $ 2.7 trillion, predicts Bloomberg.

In the worst of four forecast options, the agency experts predict a recession in the USA, Eurozone and Japan and sharply slow growth in China. The forecast has a significant degree of uncertainty, experts admit, but indicate that the current trajectory of the Chinese economy leads it to an increase of only 1.2% according to the results of the first quarter.

Quick recovery

China takes control of the epidemic, restores production in the second quarter and loses 0.7 percentage points. GDP growth, coronavirus blow to other economies is barely traced at the end of the year. A month ago, this scenario could be basic, but now it seems optimistic: the virus has spread to other countries, China as a “world factory” has already encountered not only a reduction in its own production, but also with the fall of orders from abroad.

Limited exposure

U-shaped instead of a V-shaped restoration of the Chinese economy, a significant impact of the epidemic on the economy with the greatest widespread coronavirus. China GDP growth slows down by 1.5 percentage points, Japan - by 1 pp, Germany - by 1.2 percentage points, Russia - by 0.9 percentage points The US economy is affected minimally. The global GDP growth slows down to 2.3%, which is already considered a facet of recession.

The wide spread of the epidemic

This scenario predicts a significant, but not the pandemic spread of coronavirus. In this case, China loses less than other countries (2 pp GDP growth), and the Eurozone and Russia are guaranteed to fall into a recession (the growth of Russian GDP is reduced by 3 percentage points). The growth of the global economy slows down to 1.2%, but the United States still avoid recession.

Pandemic

Grong recession: the growth of global GDP is rolling to the zero mark. Economics of Eastern Europe are worst of all, Russia loses almost 5 percent of the growth compared to the basic forecast for this year. China and the USA feel better than others (minus 2.4 pp).