Coronavirus: reasons for optimism

The Chinese coronavirus infection continues to spread around the world, killing people and Rush markets. Several infected per daybegan to be identified in Russia. How to react to this? Our friends from the Reminder project suddenly offer to look at what is happening with optimism. We give their arguments.

• We know what kind of virus it is. News about the outbreak of infection in Chinese Jun appeared on December 31. And after seven days, a virus causing a disease was identified: it belongs to the coronavirus family, as well as the causative agent of atypical pneumonia SARS (2003), as well as several viruses of the common cold. After another three days - an inconceivable speed - was deciphered by his genome. We just recall: it took two years to detect HIV in the mid-1980s.
• We have tests for the virus. The first tests for the new coronavirus appeared on January 13 - they were developed by scientists in Berlin with the participation of colleagues in Rotterdam, London and Hong Kong. Open cooperation of scientists, doctors and enthusiasts from all over the world allows you to quickly find a solution to the problem.
• We know that the epidemic can be restrained, albeit at a high price. The measures taken by China look quite tough: the country's government essentially put over 50 million people in quarantine, isolating the whole province of Hubay. But actions aimed at holding back the epidemic work. On Thursday, only 120 new cases were revealed in Jun - the lowest indicator in a month and a half. And - not a single case in the rest of the Hubay province and in several other regions of China, where the authorities are already going to open schools again.
• Picking up the virus is not so easy if you follow the rules of hygiene. Frequent careful washing of hands is a reliable way of protection. The above all the risk , of course, among those who are closely in contact and live with infected. You can also become infected if you have been poking on you. But it is impossible to catch the virus, just passing by a sick person on the street: for this you need to be face to face with him at a distance of two meters for more than 15 minutes.
• In most cases, the disease proceeds relatively easily, and children and young people are in a low -risk zone. The review of 45,000 cases of infection in China states that 81% of the sick had mild and moderate symptoms. 14% of patients were in serious condition - they needed urgent medical care. Another 5% - in critical; Half of them did not survive. Other conclusions from the study: only 3% of cases falls on people under 20 years of age, among young children of deaths are not recorded. Mortality among those who do not have forty are only 0.2%. The percentage of fatal outcome increases after 65 years and reaches 15% for patients over 80, those who had chronic diseases are especially vulnerable. While the epidemic is not completed, it is not easy to calculate mortality: some scientists are inclined to the fact that it may not exceed 1.4%. This, however, is ten times more than the seasonal flu. (Read more about different assessments of mortality in our material .)
• People safely recover. In the news we see how the number of new confirmed cases of the disease is growing - here and here. But at the same time, about 2000 people recover daily.
• Hundreds of scientific works have already been written about the virus. If in the database of scientific publications on Pubmed medicine the name of the virus in the search, you can see that in just a month and a half 539 articles on vaccines, possible methods of treatment, epidemiology, diagnosis, etc. This is an unprecedented rate of study of epidemics. And what is important: most articles are available for scientists and doctors from all over the world.
• There are already prototypes of the vaccine from Covid-19. Large pharmaceutical companies and startups - for example, Moderna, Inovio, Sanofi and Novavax, as well as individual scientific laboratories from different countries are actively working on the vaccine, using, in particular, the experience of other SARS viruses. Some options are already ready for testing in public. Even if, before the release of the commercial version of the vaccine, it takes more than a year, this will still become a new record for the development speed.
• Dozens of treatment methods of Covid-19 are tested. By mid -February, more than 80 options were tested. Among the candidates: Chlorokhin (medicine for malaria), Lopinavir and Ritonavir (HIV preparations), levolitinib (anti -inflammatory), even stem cells . At the same time, artificial intelligence is actively used in the selection of therapy and analysis of drugs of drugs, which can significantly accelerate the process.

Conclusion: now it is definitely not worth a panic, but - it is necessary to take precautions. About how to protect yourself and loved ones - read in our big report dedicated to coronavirus.

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