The dollar exceeded 80 rubles

The dollar exchange rate on tenders on Wednesday, March 18, around 18.15 Moscow time exceeded 80 rubles for the first time in four years, follows from the exchange data. For a trading session, the American currency has risen in price by 5 rubles.

What's happening

The main driver of courses on Wednesday is oil prices. At the beginning of the day, the Brent quotation was pierced down $ 28 - the level of four years ago, WTI oil “went” for a short time below $ 26, and this is already the level of 2003.

During the trading session, the decrease continued - Brent first confidently rushed to $ 27 ($ 27.15 to 16.07 Moscow time), and about 16.20 Moscow time was already worth $ 26.7. This is also the level of 17 years ago. WTI quotes fell below $ 25.

Against the background of such a decrease in the opening of trading in the USA, the dollar rate showed a characteristic “saw” of support below 80 rubles per dollar at 79.6–79.8 rubles.

UPD. The American market on Wednesday opened the next fall, but its scope (5.4% on S&P 500) has not yet exceeded the modest rally on the eve that arose after Donald Trump to provide the markets with another $ 1 trill of liquidity.

UPD. Around 18.00 Moscow time, Saudi Arabia said that she was ready to maintain the maximum production level - 12.3 million b/s - several months. Brent quotes dropped to $ 26.

At the beginning of the day, 75.5 rubles were given for the dollar.

They talk about it

From a technical point of view, what is happening in world markets is “a vicious loop of positive feedback between the highest volatility and liquidity deficiency”, quotes the Bloomberg strategist Deutsche Bank of the Tatta paragraph.

For the Russian market, the most important level will be 80 rubles per dollar. “So far, the ruble and the market as a whole are moving along with oil and investors do not leave the market, but a psychologically important level that will affect mood is 80 rubles per dollar,” Natalia Orlova, chief economist of Alfa Bank, told The Bell.

“After the crisis of 2008 and 2014, the market has become more effective, and now you can’t directly correlate the ruble with the price of oil and calculate the course in proportion to Brent futures. At the current time, the ruble assessment looks adequate, the players understand that the lower the price of oil is now, the higher it is on the medium and long horizon. And in the current ruble, the forecast is laid that by the end of the year oil will reach $ 35, and by the middle of 2022 it will reach $ 40–45. That is why it is not worth expecting a dollar for 90 rubles, ”said Eduard Karin, an analyst at Alfa-Capital.

“The dollar above 79 is a normal level at an oil level of about $ 27.5 per barrel, we expected such numbers, just a little later - not in March, in April. So far, the ruble even looks against the background of the fall of oil relatively strong and stable. It will be worse in April: the banks will begin to leave dollar liquidity, since at this time there will be dividends. Now at the next meeting of the Central Bank on Friday it will be interesting to hear their position and understand their reaction to the weakening of the ruble and the critical levels at which actions will begin to take. In general, with such a dynamics of oil in April, the dollar can break through the bar with 85–87 rubles, ”says Denis Porupai, an analyst with Raiffeisenbank financial markets.

Dorm expects that on Friday the Central Bank will raise the rate by 50 B.P. However, according to his assessment, “the regulator can attach greater importance to those factors that advocate a moderate increase of 25 B.P. Or even for maintaining the current rate, since so far the situation in the local market is stable. ”