Minus $ 3 billion per month. How to evaluate the contribution of Igor Sechin to the collapse of Russian oil exports

The scale and duration of the observed fall of world oil prices are far from obvious. So, today it is difficult to predict the scale of reducing the income of oil companies, the state budget of Russia and all participants in the Russian economy, not to mention the situation in the foreign exchange market.

Only one thing is clear: in the absence of a miracle - it will be worse. And the return at the table of negotiations with OPEC, apparently, will not become such a miracle.

Oil continues to get cheaper, and negotiations on the sale of April Parties of oil are held for Russian exporters in the most successful way. As a result, prices for the main Russian export variety Urals are decreased faster than the main indicators of the oil market. At the same time, during negotiations with potential buyers of Saudi Aramco, Russian exporters in the most sore spot, offering Arabic light to all oil refineries using Urals at their enterprises.

From the local peak on January 6, the futures to the Brent price indicator decreased by more than 60%, dropping below $ 27/barrel. A significant part of the fall was on March 6–9. Then Russia and Saudi Arabia at first could not agree on an additional reduction in supply in the global oil market, and then Saudi Arabia declared a price war for the share of the market, reporting a sharp decrease in prices and increasing the supply. The most noticeably reduced prices in the main markets for the Russian Urals variety-in the Mediterranean and North-West Europe.

As a result, the price of Brent dropped from about $ 50/barrel. (March 5) below $ 35/barrel. (March 9). In the following days, the market continued to reduce and temporary rollbacks, responding to information about the actual proposals to the Saudi Aramco oil refiners, but even more to a sharp reduction in fuel demand and oil due to pandemia of coronaviral disease Covid-19. In the middle of last week, the Brent oil price indicated below $ 25/barrel, and the week ended at the mark just below $ 27/barrel.

At the same time, not only the main Brent quotation decreased, but also three -month spreads on this indicator, which reflects the reduction of oil prices expected by the market participants in the future.

Brent oil oil is a mixture of oil delivered to the loading terminal of Sallom on the Shetland Islands for Brent oil pipelines systems

(from the deposits of Brent , Cormorant, Hatton, Tistle, Merchison, Danglin) and Ninian (from Ninian deposits, North Alvin, Magnus). Shell is currently completing prey and is engaged in the final conservation of the Brent deposit. But the supply of the mixture will continue without oil from this field, as well as the calculations of numerous and various quotes from the Brent price complex .

This price complex is used to determine prices by about 70% of oil produced in the world. It includes the price of an over -time market, futures, differences for the difference and other financial instruments. The Brent quotation system calculations with price agencies are based on the cost of forwarding for the difference ( CFD) for several North Sea oil varieties ( Brent , Fortis, Oseberg, Ecofisc, Troll) or, as plan B, prices for ICE London Street, as well as differentials for each of these varieties. The price of each variety is calculated, the cheapest one is selected - its price becomes a quotation of Brent , which is used in formulas to calculate the cost of individual batches of oil of various varieties.

The most frequently cited Brent quotation is the futures for quotes of one of the price agencies, Platts, with the nearest date of execution from the number of ICE exchange . All these quotes have not directly reflected the Brent brand oil price for a long time . There is no mixture of several brands, which CFDs are used to determine the general quotation: they are not mixed when shipping from their terminals. Each of these brands has its own differential to a general quotation.

Therefore, if the business press mentions oils of “ Brent ” or “ Brent mixture ”, with a high degree of probability, we are talking about a benchmark - anchor quotation that is not the cost of a particular oil brand.

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