For the system-forming companies of the Russian Federation, they developed a stress scene with quarantine until autumn and a new flash of coronavirus

The Russian authorities have developed two stress scenaries for the development of crisis in the economy, designed to verify the financial stability of system-forming enterprises. More softer assumes that economic activity in the bulk will be frozen the entire second quarter of 2020, that is, until the end of June. More stringent provides that quarantine measures will last two quarters, until the end of September, writes RBC .

It is reported that the scenario conditions should have been developed by the Ministry of Economic Development, and the relevant departments (including the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Transport, etc.) were supposed to organize a stress test of strategic companies subordinate to them. Earlier, the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov spoke about plans to conduct stress testing of system-forming enterprises. Based on the results of stress tests, a conclusion will be concluded about the potential problems of the organization - each of them banks will assign a risk category. The audit will show the enterprise's ability to fulfill its financial obligations during 2020-2022.

The first stress scene involves the tightening of quarantine measures in Russia, including the closure of large cities, freezing economic activity in Russia in the second quarter of 2020 and an increase in the number of countries covered by the epidemic. According to him, the restoration of economic activity is expected from the second quarter in China and from the third quarter in Europe.

At the same time, oil prices of the Russian Urals brand will remain at $ 20 per barrel until the end of 2020, followed by restoration of up to $ 35 by the end of 2022. Inflation in Russia will be 4.5% at the end of the year, and the dollar will cost more than 80 rubles before the end of the year (including 80.8 rubles in the fourth quarter).

The second stress scenario is based on more stringent prerequisites in which the bulk of the territories of Russia will be closed, transport communication between cities will be stopped, economic activity will be frozen until the end of September, and new outbreaks of coronaviral infection will occur in China and South Korea. The restoration of economic activity in Europe and China will begin only in the fourth quarter of 2020 or the first quarter of 2021, Urals oil will cost $ 10 per barrel in the second and third quarters of the year, and by the end of 2022 only up to $ 30 will be restored.

Under such conditions, inflation can amount to 5.5% this year, followed by a slowdown of up to 4% in 2022. The dollar rate under such a scenario will exceed 89 rubles in the second quarter, after which it will be adjusted to 82.2 rubles in the fourth quarter and will cost about 82 rubles in 2021 and 2022. GDP will be reduced under any scenario. The media note that scenario conditions for stress tests are not forecasts, but serve in order to evaluate the readiness of companies for extremely unfavorable development of events. However, the first scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development is as close as possible to the averaged market expectations, moreover, last week Urals oil has fallen to almost $ 10 .

Earlier, Bloomberg reported with reference to sources that the Ministry of Finance of Russia will be forced to make up the updated budget of 2020, based on the forecast price of oil $ 20 per barrel Urals. This converges with the first stress scene of the Ministry of Economic Development. The optional macroeconomic forecast, adjusted due to the pandemic and falling oil prices, promised to present the Ministry of Economic Development in April.

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term forecasting (TsMAKP) published three scenarios of crisis-soft ”, tough and shock. The most likely economists of the Central Department Store called the tough crisis: the world economy is in crisis for two years, Russian millionaires are losing 15-17% of productivity due to quarantines, in 2020 of the Russian GDP fell by 3-3.3%.

The probability of a shock scenario is also quite large and is up to 30%. This option comes from extremely low oil prices, a sharp drop in Russian exports of oil and oil products. In this case, performance losses in million-plus cities will amount to about 25%, and the decline in the economy will reach 7% in 2020. In addition, a combination of a tough version and active anti -crisis measures of the state, estimated at about 2.5% of GDP, is not excluded. With this option, which the authors call "constructive", the recession manages to soften, although it will still last at least two years .