A cross between the virus and bureaucrat

Coronavirus will still return: officials have done almost everything for this

We know that infectious diseases are caused by viruses and bacteria (and not the influence of the planet Saturn). We know the words “reverse transcriptase” or “ribosoma”. We can draw out SARS-COV-2 and find out everything about its S-Belyki and the Furine breakdown site, but, in fact, while we are fighting with the epidemic in a completely same way that we fought with the plague in the XIV century BC. e.

We fought with a quarantine with the plague, and the Utan virus and I were also fighting quarantine.

Have we had any other options? Undoubtedly.

The virologists studying coronaviruses of bats-submarines have repeatedly warned that only one mutation is enough for these viruses to jump to the human population: and the virus mutates on average once a week. Moreover, Dr. Shi Zhenly from the Uthan Institute of Virology warned in 2017 that there are already viruses that are dangerous to people in the populations of bats, and that, therefore, the epidemic similar to the Coronavirus, the hearth of which was also in China, could break out at any moment, and, among other things, was accompanied by ten percent mortality.

Note that we were not warned at all. Like, maybe from the rat, maybe from the canary ... from the Chinese bat - they told us. And we received coronavirus from a Chinese bat.

What could be done if the warnings of Michael Osterman, Ralph Berik and Shenly heard?

“For example,” says the well -known virologist Konstantin Chumakov, now holding the post of deputy director of the department for the development and study of vaccines in the FDA ( organization for the quality of the quality of products and medicines of the United States . - Ed .), It could be brought to mind a vaccine from SARS - the previous variety of coronavirus, but the development stopped quickly, because they quickly coped with the carantine. This vaccine would not have protected from the current coronavirus, but could serve as a prototype for a similar vaccine against it. ”

As science just informed, antibodies from SARS also help from its current variety-SARS-COV-19. We are talking about the anti -el, which was called the CR3022 and was isolated back in 2006 by the Dutch pharmaceutical company Crucell Holland BV after the SARS flash came to naught, the development of the vaccine was stopped. Bending billions of dollars costs the vaccine to mind, and the states did not do this, and private companies could not.

The reason why the virologists were not heard was very simple. In the modern world, there are a lot of fighters with global warming, GMOs and vaccinations - and virologists with their pipes look pale.

That is, intellectually humanity has already matured in order to accurately predict the epidemics and create vaccines for them in advance. But the structure of the human psyche and bureaucracy made this foresight useless.

We move on.

We should deal with pandemias - the World Health Organization. Usually she does not spare the throats and every day tells us about new terrible epidemics that threaten planet Earth.

The last time they buzzed all the ears about the terrible fever of Ebola, which is about to destroy us all. Ebola is not transmitted by airborne droplets (translated-if you wash your hands after they touched the corpse, do not get infected). Therefore, Ebola never and under no circumstances can become a threat to a developed country. It was a threat only in Africa, and spread through African hospitals with toilets such as toilets.

The hysteria that the WHO arranged about Ebola was a classic example of the behavior of international bureaucracy, which screams “wolves, wolves” to catch up with additional fear and get additional funding.

It would seem that in the case of the WHO coronavirus, God himself ordered to scream the “wolves”. But she behaved differently. The epidemic began at the end of last year in Jun.

However, on January 14, the WHO claimed that the virus was not transmitted from person to person.

Such softness of WHO was unlikely to be random. Her current head Tedros Gebreisus is a career official. He was the Minister of Health, and then - the Minister of Foreign Affairs in semi -authoritarian Ethiopia. It was under him that cholera, which was officially called “sharp watery diarrhea” (Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation, envy!), Hid in Ethiopia.

The head of the WHO GEBRUSUS was elected with the unanimous support of the countries of the African Union (the chairman of the executive council of which Geberesus was in 2014), as well as Vanuat and Haiti, and soon after the election he appointed one of his patrons, known to all Robert Mugaba, to the post of Ambassador of goodwill under WHO, motivating it with outstanding merits in the development of Zimbabvi healthcare.

However, the real sponsor of the former Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs, apparently, was China, which increases its influence in Africa in general and in Ethiopia in particular. The election of Gebepersus was a classic example of how China captures the organs of international bureaucracy.

By the way, Gebbeisus served China to another important service. A new disease, especially in English, was first often called the "Ugan virus." This fully corresponds to medical traditions-the diseases are constantly called at the place of origin, such as: the Marburg virus, Ebola’s fever, West Ninsky virus, Zika’s fever, etc. However, on February 11, the official name of the new disease: Covid-19, which did not indicate the place of origin. Immediately after this, China developed a large propaganda campaign against the name “Juanky virus” as an inadvertible and racist. The campaign quickly joined the American liberal media, which previously used this name.

The praise with which the head of the Chinese showered the Chinese, and their “openness” (and he praised them even more than Mugaba) turned out to be one of the key factors, because of which the West was late in its reaction to several critical weeks.

Neither Trump, nor Johnson, nor Macron, nor Merkel are experts in medicine.

They rely on the opinion of experts. And the expert was Mr. Gebreisus, who was never a doctor.

However, the amazing statement of WHO that the virus is not transmitted from person to person was not the only reason for helplessness.

Judge for yourself. WHO issued her statement on January 14. Now - April. However, we still do not know the key parameters of coronavirus. We do not know the key number - mortality. In Italy, it is 9 %, in Germany - 0.4 %. The scatter in these figures depends on the density of testing. The more tests, the higher the incidence and lower mortality. At the same time, many test countries are still not enough, and the only reason for this is the bureaucracy. For example, in Russia, testing for a long time was a monopoly of the state “vector”, which, apparently, had neither personnel, nor capacities for stiff production of tests.

What such stupidity was done in Russia is not surprising, but it is surprising that exactly the same was soaked in the UK! The “vector” there was called Public Health England. Its leader Sir Simon Stevens to the last resisted the return of tests to private owners. As a result, by the end of last week, out of 1.3 million English health officers, a quarter sat on quarantine, and as many as 2 thousand people were tested.

In addition to the tests for coronavirus, there is an equally important test - for antibodies. This is a test that shows that a person has already been ill with a “crown” and has immunity to it. The importance of this test is difficult to overestimate. After all, the ill person is free from quarantine. And most importantly - only after we begin to test people on antibodies, we will understand the full scale of the epidemic, including asymptomatic cases. The difference can be colossal.

So, on April 1, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that from a random sample of 226 people, 11 had antibodies to coronavirus-that is, five percent of the sample (though small) were already asymptomatically ill. And among 60 volunteers in the north of Italy, who decided to donate blood, 40 found the asymptomatic Covid!

The lack of actual data gives rise to a wild scatter in forecasts.

Professor Ferguson, for example, predicted 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the UK at the very time when Oxford epidemiologists stated that half of the British were already ill with a Utan virus.

Not all measures that I am talking about are now practical. For example, to establish who does not suffer from a “crown” in the population (if there are such), to establish what combination of genes for this is responsible, to conduct a complete genetic screening of the population - so far it is the Too Much, but in 10 years it will become a reality.

The meaning of my exclusively amateur article, however, is in another, and I return from what I started.

Our knowledge incredibly went forward compared to the XIV century. We know almost everything about coronavirus. We know what proteins it is associated with and how it penetrates into the cells of the lungs. We can test the coronavirus with the help of PCR, and we can test the antibodies to it.

We can make medicines that beat in those parts of the virus whose analogues are not in human cells. We can make medicines that suppress the hyperactivity of the immune system, which, in fact, kills the lungs. We can make medicines that invade between the virus and the site of its binding. All this is us (“we” in the sense of humanity, and not in the sense of Russia) we will make a pretty soon, ”Konstantin Chumakov predicts,“ but the vaccine is probably not in time to do. By the time she will be made, the epidemic may end. But the vaccine will come in handy if the virus returns next year, as the influenza virus regularly does.

But for now, in the yard, the fifth month of the epidemic-and we are still fighting with it as a grandfather with an undifferentiated quarantine, without any cunning sequenication and even without antibodies tests. And not because we do not have enough knowledge, but because the social and bureaucratic structure of the modern world is such that what scientists know and what the bureaucrats do are two big differences.