When quarantine ends

If five thousand deaths in Novosibirsk are not too much price for “saving the economy” (Stalin would not have blinked with an eye), then you can do without quarantine. True, somewhere you need to deploy plague huts. Quarantine and self -isolation reduce the number of contacts between people, and the virus ceases to be transmitted. Observer Taiga.info Alexei Mazur about the fight against the epidemic.

In Novosibirsk and in other deep provinces (everywhere, except for St. Petersburg and the Moscow Region), you can give an optimistic forecast for the development of an epidemic of coronavirus. The focus of the disease (fortunately for the province) was the city in which all decisions are made in Russia. And in which almost all LPR live (persons who make decisions).

Despite the confusion of the measures taken and the legal and economic chaos created by them, nevertheless, our authorities managed to introduce restrictive measures at least a week earlier than “colleagues” from Western countries that now experience the peak of mortality. Previously - in an epidemiological, not a calendar sense.

This made it possible to do the handicap that Moscow had in relation to Milan (25 days) and New York (17 days). There was an opportunity to take into account someone else's experience. And the authorities took advantage of her. It would be possible to win two weeks, and not one, but looking at the current convulsive throwing back and forth with economic measures, you understand that one week is not bad.

But the conditional Novosibirsk (like most regional centers) “lags behind” from Moscow for another two weeks. In this sense, quarantine in Novosibirsk was introduced three weeks earlier than in Italy.

Three weeks seem to be a trifle. But let's not forget that in the absence of quarantine measures, the doubling of the sick occurs every few days (from three to six). That is, the lead for three weeks gives the incidence rate ten times lower. In dozens. At the exit from the quarantine, the inhabitants of the province will ask: and what, because of these several hundred cases, we sat at home for one and a half to two months?

However, we have a chance - to extend quarantine and increase the number of sick people. A small number of infected people leads to a deceptive impression that everything is fine with us, and not as in Moscow. But the epidemic is akin to pregnancy. She either is, or she is not. Imagine that a woman, having watched a pregnancy test, would say - what about at all? Only one cell is not visible to the microscope.

If the infection “inside” Novosibirsk, and doctors with sanitary services did not reveal all the infected, it will expand and multiply while the city lives in normal mode. The meaning of quarantine is not to give infection to spread. Critics of quarantine (and nobody likes him) ask: where do you see the sick? Where are the dead? They are not! I have a counter question - how many people should die so that you consider quarantine a reasonable measure? Any number of up to 5 thousand in Novosibirsk can be called, and it will be achieved without the “self -isolation” regime. And pretty fast.

If five thousand deaths are not too much price for the “salvation of the economy” (Comrade Stalin would not have blinked your eyes), then you can do without quarantine. True, somewhere it is necessary to expand plague huts in which the sick will die without decent medical care (in the city there are only a few hundred IVL devices), and to assign protection and funeral brigades to them.

Five thousand is if we have mortality at the level of Germany or South Korea. If 5% or more, as in Italy, then many times more. It is unlikely that anyone will risk giving an accurate forecast.

Quarantine and self -isolation reduce the number of contacts between people, and the virus ceases to be transmitted. The epidemic thus can be crushed "in the root."

We know that in Novosibirsk an uncontrolled spread of infection occurs. Already the second patient who was infected inside the city. Most of these infected are not only detected, but do not even have clinical symptoms. There are not many of them on our city. From several hundred to several thousand. The probability of you personally “catch” the infection is low. The problem is that without quarantine someone will definitely catch it, and the number of infected people will grow.

Even with strict quarantine, infection inside the families will take place, which will tighten the “self -isolation” period.

But not everyone is sitting at home. The quarantine erosion has begun. Builders and industrial enterprises (not so few) were added to the list of enterprises that were allowed to work from the very beginning. Our ordinary citizens, looking at the small numbers of the infected, the lack of support measures and the inaction of the police, reached out to work and who in the parks. Well, the slogan "is no worse than the flu."

Hunger is not aunt, and, in principle, no less people were dying of hunger in Russia than from epidemics. When there is nothing to eat, mortality in 1% does not seem high at all. The requirements to give business (and citizens) to work louder to work. And the authorities of different regions expand the list of permitted. Somewhere you can work with manicure salons, somewhere to the solariums, and somewhere to pawnshops. It is logical, if the authorities cannot distribute food, then he must leave the opportunity to lay the latter in the pawnshop.

It turns out that we have two Novosibirsk. One - sits at home, making sorties for products and in pharmacies. The other goes to work in public transport, where the crowd returned, judging by the photograph of Stanislav Sokolov. And walks around the whole family. In the first Novosibirsk, the infection should have been quickly stopped. But in the second, it will spread, albeit slowly. And sharp outbreaks are also possible when whole groups are infected. During religious services on Easter, flashes of infection may occur if their visit is massive, and among the parishioners there will be a carrier of the virus.

Therefore, in the near future, we are waiting for the weakening of the self-isolation regime (at the request of the workers), then its tightening due to the next “outbreak”. In the next two weeks, the numbers in Moscow will begin to impress (but they will not reach the Italian).

One way or another, we will reach the end of quarantine. And here it turns out (which no one has yet been talking about) that it is impossible to get out of it completely.

After all, until mass vaccination of the population (at best in six months) is not developed - collective immunity will not work out. This means that with the appearance of at least one infected we "return to the beginning."

After quarantine, life will not become "like a coronavirus." We will need to learn how to live according to the new rules. In principle, if we knew how to live on them now, we would not have to go into quarantine.

What are these rules? There is no secret. Those Asian countries that have suppressed the epidemic already live on them. For example, Taiwan, on which one case of infection is on April 9th.

These rules are simple, although not quite pleasant.

1. All people with suspicious symptoms are immediately checked for coronavirus. In case of detection, all conquers with the patient sit in quarantine. Tests are made to everyone, quickly and free.

2. At the entrance to any institutions, shopping centers are installed thermal imagers.

3. Finding in public places, in public transport - only in masks.

4. Handsome are canceled. The distance between people of 1.5 meters is kept wherever possible.

5. Hikes to the store’s store are canceled.

6. In public transport, handrails and doors (at minibuses) are disinfected after each flight. In the entrances, doors, railing, buttons and elevator handles are disinfected - every four hours. Public transport stops, door handles in the subway, buttons of switching traffic lights (and other places where people are taken with their hands) are regularly disinfected.

7. In public buildings and stores - everything that people touch with their hands is disinfected even more often.

If these rules were respected in Novosibirsk, quarantine could not have been left at all. We (for now) have a small number of infected. But they are not observed, they are not even declared in full.

My friend sent a small video from Taiwan - how it works for them. Look, compare with how ours.

Therefore, to save the economy of Novosibirsk, it is necessary to demand not so much the opening of institutions (as they will open, they will immediately close after the outbreak), but to introduce new sanitary rules in which our economy will be able to work almost as usual. The local and regional authorities were given authority - that’s an excuse to distinguish.

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