Coronavirus threatens Russia with a loss of ten -year growth of the economy

According to the results of 2020, the world economy may be in a protracted recession and fall by more than 5%if it does not work to restrain the spread of coronavirus, writes RBC with reference to the research of McKinsey and Scope Ratings. In this case, Russia's GDP can be reduced by 10-11%, which is equivalent to the loss of the total economic growth since 2011.

The McKinsey & Company International Consulting Company introduced the basic scenario according to which the Russian economy will return to the pre -crisis level by mid -2021 if it is possible to stop the spread of infection until the end of the second quarter. Then the recovery growth will begin in July, and GDP will only be reduced by 3.8%.

In the negative scenario, GDP will collapse by 10.2%. At the same time, the peak of the crisis will be in the first quarter of 2021, when GDP decreases by 14%. In this case, the return to the pre -crisis level will be longer - until mid -2023, McKinsey & Company is considered. The greatest fall in both scenarios is expected in consumer demand and investments.

According to the basic forecast of GDP in constant prices, in 2020 to 87.1 trillion rubles and up to 81.3 trillion rubles in negative. In the first case, it will drop to the level of 2014, and in the second - below the level of 2011, follows from the data of Rosstat.

Three similar scenarios were presented by the German rating agency Scope Ratings: basic (–3.3%of Russia's GDP), stress (-8.8%) and the worst (–11.3%).

• The fall of Russia's GDP, most likely, in any scenario will be higher than the average -INSTO - its Institute of International Finance (IIF) the day before estimated at 2.8% in the base scenario. For Russia in the basic scenario, it gives minus 5.1%. The fall of this year will definitely be worse than during the “great recession” of 2008, IIF believes.