Mathematicians predicted the peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Novosibirsk

Scientists of the Novosibirsk Institute of Computing Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (IvMIMG) of the SB RAS predicted the peak of incidence of coronavirus in the city. The largest number of cases they expect in early June.

The peak of the coronavirus epidemic will be recorded in Novosibirsk in early June 2020, Ivmig's employees SB RAS calculated. The report was presented at the conference "Actual Problems of Applied Mathematics", TASS reports .

Scientists divided residents into five groups: susceptible to the virus, infected without symptoms, patients with symptoms, cured and dead. According to their calculations, the number of asymptomatic patients will begin to decline in late April, and the number of susceptible ones will fall from the beginning of May. The incidence and mortality will grow without bursts.

“We used many previously created models for the most correct setting in the Russian Federation. A distribution model was chosen in a population with the possibility of setting up parameters to a particular city, ”said Olga Krivorotko, an employee of the institute. “Today, modeling results have been obtained until June 16, that is, for another two months in Novosibirsk and in Moscow.”

According to the calculations of Novosibirsk mathematicians, in Moscow, the peak of incidence will occur in mid -May, from the beginning of the month the number of asymptomatic and susceptible to the virus will fall.

In the Novosibirsk region, 86 cases of coronavirus and two deaths from it were recorded . The total number of cases of infection in Siberia reached 678. In total, according to official figures, more than 32 thousand people fell ill, 273 died, almost 2.6 thousand recovered.