Oil is less and less. What will happen to the Russian budget?

An unprecedented decrease in oil prices (this week the price of Russian Urals fell below $ 10 per barrel) - a serious blow to the Russian budget. Last year, oil and gas revenues amounted to 7.9 trillion rubles. This year, the Russian budget risks not to get half of this amount.

What will happen to oil and gas income

The Russian oil sector tax system is arranged in such a way that revenues for the main taxes are directly tied to a change in world oil prices. About 85% of oil and gas revenues occur precisely for oil and oil products. Therefore, it is oil, not gas revenues that are determining for the budget.

With an increase in oil prices, most of the additional income sees the federal budget. Similarly, with a decrease in prices, the main blow also takes on the budget. Moreover, there is a minimum of the price, which is taken into account when determining the rate of personal income tax and export duties for oil, which is $ 15 for the Urals barrel. This means that if the average price of Urals oil is below $ 15 in some month, then the value of personal income tax and export duties is reset. The next month, companies do not pay these taxes to the budget. This deduction “protects” the financial situation of oil companies in conditions of low prices by reducing revenues to the federal budget. A similar scenario can be realized in the near future.

Under these conditions, the “lower border” of oil prices for Russian companies is already determined only by operating costs for production ($ 3-4 per barrel) and transportation costs ($ 4–5 per barrel) and does not depend on taxes. In total, it turns out about $ 8-10 per barrel - while maintaining oil prices above this level, it makes sense to continue the production. In April, Urals oil quotes for a short period reached $ 10 per barrel, the upper boundary of this range.

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