Removing a daughter

The President of Kazakhstan removed his main competitor from the road in the struggle for power - the eldest daughter of Nursultan Nazarbayev

On the morning of May 2, the President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev suddenly deprived the deputy powers of the speaker of the upper house of parliament, Darig Nazarbayev. Now she certainly will not be able to become the president of the country. Is this agreed with the father?

The eldest daughter of the president became the head of the Senate a little more than a year ago, the day after her father, the permanent president of the country for 29 years, Nursultan Nazarbayev, resigned live, transferring power to Tokaev.

Some experts then suggested that Tokaev is a transit version of the president, and Darig will move him after a while: the post of chairman of the Senate just gives a direct path to the presidency in case of a sudden resignation of the head of state (Tokaev himself went this way). The correspondent of "New" was among them. Now the time has come to admit that this hypothesis was erroneous. This is what happened this year.

The version that Dariga could become the next president was built on the fact that Tokaev was fully controlled by Nursultan Nazarbayev, and he, in turn, wants to maintain power in the hands of his family. Over time, between the Akorda (the residence of the president) and the library (the library of the first president - the new office of Nursultan Nazarbayev), some frictions that only added oils to the fire began to arise: Tokaev as a whole acted as a full -fledged reformer, which did not fit very much with the previous bet on stability.

The new president proclaimed the concept of the “hearing state”, resolved some rallies and even brought closer to several representatives of civil society - officially through the Council of Public Trust and unofficially - through the system of emergency advisers. At the same time

Publicly Tokaev allowed himself to criticize some projects of his predecessor, but never crossed the “red line”, turning to persons.

In turn, Nazarbayev, publicly showing the support of Tokaeva, was not pleased with all the steps of his protege in fact: it is still definitely unclear whose instructions in June last year more than four thousand people were detained in protests against the results of the presidential election, but without nod from the library it was difficult to imagine. It is also unknown who ordered the civil activist Dulatel from the house this year and take the chamber allegedly for disrespect for the trial (however they don’t even delay it): a few hours later, agale died in the police department, and his funeral turned into manifestations with rude detentions. Tokaev, by the way, publicly brought condolences to the Agadil family, but agreed with the official version of death that we are talking about a sudden heart attack.

At the same time, Dariga Nazarbayeva as head of the Senate developed violent activity, criticizing and the program of digitalization of Kazakhstan (Tokaev was also dissatisfied with it), both the work of the government and the railways. This did not look directly on the president, but the strengthening of the presence of Nazarbayeva in the public political field made it possible to assume that, using the support of the family, it strengthens its positions for the future and tries to intercept the agenda from Akorda.

At the same time, the information campaign was actively promoted that on March 18, 2020, at an expanded meeting of the Pronazarbaev Party of power Nur Otan, Nursultan

Nazarbayev will either be asked to return to himself, or they will convincingly pray for him to change Tokayev to his daughter.

As far as such a scenario was really developed, we are unlikely to find out, but at the time of the first rumors about the new version of the “castling” he looked extremely risky. On the positions of Nazarbayev, their own family hit a lot.

At first, the youngest son of Darigi Nazarbayeva Aisultan publicly stated that his grandfather was actually his father. The Minister of Information and Communications Dauren Abaev on the air of the Khabar channel (belongs to Darig Nazarbayeva) had to publicly declare that Aisultan had no problems with drug use and not to listen to him - but this was only an additional blow to the image of the entire clan.

Subsequently, Aisultan used his Facebook no longer for revelations, but to apologize to everyone (and on May 2, he completely removed his page), but then problems with the eldest son Nurali began: the English investigation accused him and the Darig’s herself that they were approaching $ 100 million through real estate in London, and washed money. In court, these accusations managed to refute, but this was another strongest blow to Darig Nazarbayeva and any of her ambitions.

In such conditions, it was difficult to count on some legal methods of strengthening power to Darig Nazarbayeva,

And now there was a coronavirus at all, which finally turned the party in favor of Kasim-Zhomart Tokayev.

Political scientist Viktor Kovtunovsky, in an interview with Novaya, draws special attention to the fact that Tokaev almost immediately after the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic introduced in the country a state of emergency, which was not required at all to declare quarantine. “It was also unexpected that after the introduction of the emergency regime, Tokaev almost solely usurped all the legislative power in the country,” says Kovtunovsky. - He signed a number of decrees that endow him with unlimited power, including in the field of competencies of the parliament. And then Nursultan Nazarbayev, who was self -isolated from the situation, became unexpectedly silent on this score. ”

Kovtunovsky also draws attention to the fact that Dariga Nazarbayeva made a request to the Constitutional Council in April. The content of the request is not publicly disclosed, however, according to the political scientist, from what it is known, it was about "delimiting the subject of regulation of laws and by -laws of regulatory legal acts." “I directly associate this with the decrees that Tokaev issued during the emergency regime,” the expert says.

Could this become from the point of view of Tokayev by the trigger after which he went to aggravate the situation? Political expert Aidos Sarym in a commentary for the “new” calls this hypothesis “artificial”, since the parliament of the powers of Tokayev approved the slightest manifestation of discontent. But he and Kovtunovsky consider the decision to remove powers from Dariga a rather bold step from the president - no less bold than the introduction of a state of emergency. “In general, this step suggested recently, the system has been cleaned of toxic assets,” says Aidos Sarym. “It's time to understand that there is no chance with such an anti-rating for the implementation of any ambitions.”

Nevertheless, the removal of Dariga Nazarbayeva from his post was absolutely sudden for everyone (here we can say that Tokaev resorted to his beloved reception of his predecessor: to do important things either on Friday evening, or even on weekends).

The key question is how agreed with the father of Dariga Nazarbayeva.

“Options are possible here. If Nursultan Nazarbayev still controls the situation, then this decision was exactly approved by him, everyone agreed with him, ”the political scientist suggests Dosym Satpaev. -While Nazarbayev controls everything, there is no dual power, there is a half-junct in which all political and business elites look at his decisions. However, if his grip begins to weaken-including because of his health, the elite may take the side of Tokaev. ”

This can also lead to bold initiatives from the president himself: Viktor Kovtunovsky also believes that it is difficult to imagine such a decision “Dariga’s problem” under the “capable first president”. In turn, Aidos Sarym notes that the lack of a public reaction from the library just says that they are in the course and agree with what is happening. In addition, Tokaev publicly thanked Darig Nazarbayev for her work: this ceremonial gesture also hints that we are not a Va-Bank game, but a decision and approved and approved by all parties.

The answers to two more questions remain important.

• Firstly, who will become the new head of the Senate?

This will become known at the beginning of next week, and Aidos Sarym believes that the “purely technical figure” will become the new speaker - to match the very status of the upper house of the parliament. Satpaev calls to look at the new head of the Senate more carefully: “If it is a person from the Tokayev team, then we can talk about its strengthening. If a certain neutral figure, then, perhaps, we are talking about maintaining the status-quo. ”

However, even the appearance of a person is not from the Tokaev team as Senate Speaker can only talk about strengthening the positions of the second president. Political journalist and observer Nikita Shatalov writes that Dariga Nazarbayeva was a warning to the elites as a speaker of the Senate. “Either you support the successor, or get your daughter as the president. Now, apparently, the warranty period has passed, Tokaev has been sufficiently strengthened, there is no need to insure anyone else, ”said Shatalov.

• The second question is what will happen to the career of Dariga Nazarbayeva itself now?

“There is an option - to go into private life or social activity, which is unlikely, given its character,” says Sarym. “Perhaps this will be a post with a father like the head of the presidential fund.” To give Nazarbayeva at the head of the Nur Otan party, for example ( less than a year later, parliamentary elections should be held in the country. - Ed. ), It is now dangerous, since this can lead to even greater discontent in society: protest sentiments are already growing due to the crisis provoked by Pandemia Coronavirus.

The third option - the public persecution of Dariga Nazarbayeva from the current government - is still unlikely.

“Of course, in Uzbekistan there was also the president’s daughter, who got everyone,” Satpaev is drawing an analogy. - But there Islam Karimov himself authorized the arrest of Gulnara. It won't happen here. ”

“Another thing is that when Nursultan Nazarbayev completely moves away, the situation for Dariga Nazarbayeva will become very dangerous, since the elites can finally move to Tokaeva. Now he is a very real alternative for them, to whom to join: not even to support him, but in order to oppose someone from the Nazarbayev clan. "

One thing is definitely one thing: on any assumptions that Dariga Nazarbayev can become president, now you can put an end.

Idos Sarym assumes that talks about dual power are now meaningless: “Tokaev has gone through a lot. And his intelligence does not need to be confused with softness or indecision. " However, you should not forget that this is Kazakhstan, so eastern intelligence can always be hidden insidious - from any of the sides.