Leonid Volkov: "Why did Russia not cope?"

Aleksey Navalny's ally notes on Facebook that the Russian authorities could not succeed in combating the coronavirus epidemic, despite a good margin of training time. The failure has several reasons, but the main one is Vladimir Putin.

"Reasoning with numbers - instead of a traditional weekly post on the statistics of coronavirus.

1. Can you even pose a question like that? Yes, now, it is obvious that it is possible.

1.1. Even according to official figures, Russia has been taking the second place for two weeks in a row for two weeks in a row in an absolute increase in new cases. And the first is relative. The increase in new cases in percent over the past two weeks (315%) and over the past week (166%) - with a large margin exceeds similar indicators in any developed country; From countries with a significant amount of infected, worse indicators only in Peru and Mexico.

1.2. As a result, Russia quickly rose to the seventh place in the total number of officially identified infected, and in second place (after the United States) in terms of “active cases”, that is, sick and so far that they have not been cured and not dead (according to the tablet on WorldMeters, it may seem that on the third, but this is not so - just the UK does not give data on “cured”).

1.3. Only the statistics of mortality remains in Russia surprisingly good - so good that an honest question should sound not like "why it is so good," but as "what exactly is liable." Multiplying messages from regions about manipulations with medical statistics; About how the deceased from coronavirus is recorded in any other categories that do not allow this statistics to be seriously. The data for many European countries rightly express claims: they say that all those who died with coronavirus are considered to be dead from coronavirus (and in Belgium they went further: there they just died during the epidemic in the nursing homes from any reason, they are recorded from the coronavirus, who later promises to understand Belgium leadership among all countries among all countries among all countries European Union).

But in relation to Russia, all these claims are correct with the opposite sign, all these mantras about the "dead, which had a bunch of related diseases." Otherwise, a funny artifact would not have arisen, when mortality in the regions is significantly lower than mortality in Moscow - if in the regions they would not lie with the numbers godlessly.

1.4. Finally, this is the main trouble, Russia is now standing out in world statistics as the only country in which the exponential growth of new cases continues more than a month after the introduction of the Locksuan. In Germany, Italy, Spain, the peak of daily new cases was recorded 10-12 days after the announcement of quarantine, then a long, painful two-week plateau, then a smooth decline. In Russia, the "Non -Working Days" was introduced 5 weeks ago - and there is no reason to believe that the peak has already been reached.

That is: yes, they could not cope.

2. But maybe it should have been so? In the end, all European countries were seriously injured, why was Russia an exception? No, Russia had everything in order to prepare and show really good results.

2.1. Russia had a month in reserve, thanks to its distance from the Chinese and Italian epicenters of the spread of the disease. Exactly like that: when studying the map, one must not look at physical distances in kilometers, and not at the factor of "neighboring countries", but on economic ties and passenger turnover. So, the argument that "we are neighbors with China, everything was supposed to get to us in January, can not stand any criticism." China is huge; Hubay province - in the south of this country, Hubei and Russia have no special economic ties. To say that "well, we border with China" - it's the same as if the hearth was in Portugal, and they would say "well, we are a border with the European Union."

2.2. But Italy is far from us. It may be from the Facebook bubble that everyone goes to ski in the dolomites in February, but in fact, of course, this is not so. The Russians are monstrously poor, and for the most part they do not go anywhere. The transport connectivity of Russia and the main European foci (Italy, Spain, France) is ten times less than inside the European Union. There, millions of people on cars along hundreds of roads are moving there weekly, it is almost impossible to control - tens of thousands on aircraft through a small number of airports fly into Russia.

Funny arithmetic fact: International air traffic from Russia (in passengers per year) in 2019 was exactly equal to international air traffic from Australia. (The population of Australia is less than Russian by 6 times; well, do you imagine where Australia?). Well, that is, in fact, we are from Italy as far as Australia. Now look at Australian statistics on coronavirus and compare with the Russian ...

2.3. In favor of Russia - in addition to the factor of time, remoteness and low mobility of the population - and many other factors. Huge distances and low population density (ten times less than in European countries). The provision of people per capita is higher than the average for the European Union (370 doctors per 100 thousand inhabitants with us, 350 - on average they have). Own production of most of the scarce protective equipment. How could you prepare in a month! (There, I remember, Sobyanin began to build a hospital in February in February in 10 days, "like in Ujan," built?).

2.4. Finally, for that matter, a significantly lower level of development of democratic institutions. The much higher population tolerance to the restrictions and in other "twisting of the nuts". A huge, dimensionless, police and consumer apparatus (this is who we have much more per capita than in any European country!). Well, that is, in Russia, cynically expressed, it was really possible at each entrance to the cop and the contacts of everyone who flew from Italy, to track. I am by no means a supporter of such measures - but I must admit that there was such an opportunity.

In fact, nothing came of absolutely anything: the import was not prevented, they did not prevent distribution within the country, they could not curb the explosive growth, and the Lokdown did not reach the peak in a month. This is a deafening failure, and the question of its causes is logical.

3. So what was the main reason for the failure?

3.1. Of course, it is difficult to highlight one single factor. We all saw that there were many different factors. We saw hellish throwings when at first we talked on TV that only the Chinese are sick with coronavirus ”and that“ this is ordinary flu ” - and then, instantly, we turned on the panic. When, instead of quarantine, the "regime of non -working days" was announced. When the state monopoly was installed and responded to masks, and when these same masks were sent to Italy and the USA. When they introduced a non -working system of digital passes, they accused the "barbecue" in everything and arranged a crush in the subway. All this was one continuous terrifying managerial failure, and all this contributed to sad Russian statistics.

3.2. But, in my opinion, two main errors stand out fundamentally. They discussed one a lot: this is a desire to wield a whip without a gingerbread. When people tried to lock for undercarantine, without giving them any livelihood. Sit at home for a month and a half without money, and spin as you want - which, of course, led to the fact that the economy was damaged, and to the fact that no quarantine happened.

3.3. But they talked about the second less, and it seems to me that everything is based on everything. This is a vote on amendments to the Constitution. The failure of Russia in the fight against coronavirus was predetermined on January 15, 2020, when Vladimir Putin first publicly outlined a lifelong rule with his political strategy, and, accordingly, made a vote under the Constitution the most important political project of the Kremlin in 2020.

This is why the whole of March was lost, this is why the whole March Putin passed the five stages of denial-oganeva-tract-depression-receipt literally on our eyes, the whole March Kremlin and the AP thought only about how to save April voting. And they missed the precious time. In March, it was possible to buy and prepare protection funds. Caranty could be introduced. It was possible to prepare economic measures. It was possible to choose a German path - or Swedish. Korean - or Australian. Any strategy is better than its absence; than a month of sharahahi and nothing. But the Russian authorities simply did nothing - and received what they received.

It seems to me that this should clearly be reflected.

Vladimir Putin arranged an epidemic of coronavirus in Russia because he betrayed the interests of its citizens, putting the priority of his political search above the priority of the security, health and well -being of Russians. "