Doctors warn about the risks of military-historical celebrations and the associated festivities of citizens

Late in the evening of June 17, the first rehearsal of the parade in honor of the Victory Day, scheduled for June 24, will take place on Red Square. As usual, young drummers will open the movement, followed by 14 thousand military personnel to the sound of a combined orchestra of 900 musicians with a ceremonial step, and a mechanized column will be awarded. Another night training will take place on June 18, then two days later - a general rehearsal.

Prior to this, almost a week, the parade participants trained at the landfill in Alabin, which was like repeating the toponymy of Red Square. Before starting training, all military personnel handed over the coronavirus test. On June 10, the Ministry of Defense has a newsletter with a report on the results of continuous testing of the entire personnel of the ceremonial calculation and the mechanized column: “No infected”. The report also said that mainly military personnel with immunity to coronavirus and without signs of infectious diseases were allowed to participate in the parade.

Due to the epidemic situation, the movement in the ranks will be in the ranks of ceremonial calculations in gloves and masks. For social distance, one of the most effective measures in the fight against coronavirus, for obvious reasons was not remembered, because the parade is when shoulder to shoulder, leg in the leg.

Nevertheless, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who previously announced the removal of quarantine measures in the capital. I recommended that the townspeople remain at home on June 24, and watch the parade on TV.

“There should be no mass of spectators there,” said Sobyanin on the air of Russia 24.

Does epidemiological risks attract the parade and if so, what?

-The epidemic in the country and in the world has not yet ended, and the complete removal of restrictions seems to be hasty, answered the question of “Novaya Gazeta” by the virologist Alexei Potekhin, a professor at the Department of Microbiology of the Biofacian University of St. Petersburg. However, he has no reliable facts for analysis and risk assessment, he said.

We addressed the same question to Moscow doctors. Is the parade so dangerous and is it necessary to watch it on TV?

Alexey Erlich

Doctor of Medical Sciences, Cardiologist, Masterpiece of GKB No. 29 named after Bauman

"Most likely, the parade will affect the incidence"

- The probability of infection always increases with the accumulation of people. Moreover, the epidemic has not yet passed globally. And here the question is not only whether there is a risk for military personnel. It is almost undoubted that they will become infected, and testing will only reduce this risk.

It was reported that mainly military personnel with immunity to the Covid-19, that is, have arose, will be allowed to participate in the parade. No one knows how many percent of these emi are and if they are not enough, will the unrestrained participate? But the overgrown will still be less than the declared number of participants in the parade.

Then in April some military personnel fell ill - I don’t remember how much, but not more than 15–20%; For some more training participants, they probably got sick later.

But it is unlikely that all 100% of the parade participants are ill.

Someone from the military leadership said that during the preparation the participants will be isolated from all those who do not participate in the parade-this is reasonable to prevent the spread of the disease.

I heard that the medical service of the Ministry of Defense reserved 2000 beds. For Moscow, this is a lot, for Russia - and the parades will be held in many cities - this is quite normal. They are reserved - this does not mean that all of them will be filled.

From the point of view of the risks, the parade itself, in my opinion, is not as significant as everything that is happening around him.

Much more important is how all this will be organized. Because rehearsals, the passage of tanks around the city - all this will cause crowds. Traditionally, at all rehearsals of the parade along the Tver, other streets are spectators. Somehow I also walked and remember the crowds of people who watched how the armored vehicles passing.

And now we see that people even in public places have stopped wearing masks. Therefore, the parade and its rehearsals will most likely affect the incidence.

But this, it seems to me, will be only one link in the consequences chain to which the premature and not very understandable removal of all restrictions will lead. You can reason for a long time, this decision was political or medical, in my opinion, it is more political. The way the restrictions were removed - an avalanche -like, almost without explanation how people need to behave, how to limit themselves - this is not entirely correct from a medical point of view.

The removal of restrictive measures without taking into account the epidemiological characteristics, rehearsals and crowds of people, the announcement of June 24 with a non -working day - all this can be a factor that at least will not allow to quickly reduce the incidence.

You can reason if there will be a second peak of the epidemic or will not be: the experience of a number of European countries shows that it has not yet been, although after the first peak there has been quite a lot of time. But in these countries there are rather strict restrictions that are reduced systematically and proportional to epidemiological indicators.

If we go the wrong way, it is possible that we will face this second peak.

Editor comment

Kirill Martynov: Ten governors put the safety of citizens above political necessity. Read the material "Parade of Immunitals"

"The risk of hospitalization is minimal"

Andrey

doctor of Moscow outpatient CT center

- Of course, there are risks, but given how the parade is being prepared now, they are minimal. I will explain why. Recall the training of the Victory Parade by May 9, which was later canceled. According to some reports, out of 15 thousand participants, about 300 people infected coronavirus. Moreover, no one tested these guys, there was no question of any masks and gloves, contacts with commanders or with someone else, as I understood, were not excluded. It was a negative experience, it caused a great resonance. I think now the mistakes have taken into account.

Another argument in favor of safety is the weather. The most comfortable temperature for the life of coronavirus is a plus of four degrees. About this weather was in April. Therefore, the virus spread so rapidly, especially since the military trained without masks. Now they will all be in masks, which will limit the spread of infection.

Now about the audience. In 2008, for the first time in a long time, a parade with the participation of military equipment passed. Then I studied in the last year of the medical institute and in the morning went to watch a rehearsal. I stood on Tverskaya and well remember that there was no dense crowd even when it was still in a novelty. There were a lot of people, but they stood dispersed along the whole Tverskaya. I think that on June 24 there will be no dense crowd either.

Moreover, there are a lot of people on the streets now. The number of newly identified cases of coronavirus is gradually decreasing and, I hope, by June 24 there will be even less than now.

Moreover, some precautions seem to me excessive. For example, the fact that the participants in the parade will be in gloves.

Many experts believe that it is more effective - just wash their hands or treat them with alcohol -containing antiseptics. Masks - yes, it is necessary, gloves - excessively.

On the day of the parade, military personnel are unlikely to put on masks, and this can be dangerous. However, they are all young healthy guys. From work experience, I know that nine out of ten people aged 20 to 30 years they transfer coronavirus with the asymptomatic course of the disease, they do not feel anything at all. Only some have symptoms, as with ordinary flu.

Probably, one of the participants in the parade may become infected. But given their age and the lack of chronic diseases, the risk of hospitalization is minimal. I do not know where the information about 2000 beds comes from, and I don’t understand why there are so many.

Therefore, I do not see any extraordinary risks from the Victory Parade on June 24.

Alexey Maschan

Professor, Deputy General Director of the Center for Pediatric Hematology and Oncology named after Dima Rogachev

"The danger is posed by festivities"

- Epidemiological risks of the parade, of course, are. Firstly,

It is not clear where they got 14 thousand military personnel with immunity.

This means that they have already been ill, because immunity can only be developed among the ill -fated. Then they had to get sick of at least 50-60 thousand in order to take away 14 thousand military personnel of the right age and the necessary growth from them.

As far as I remember, there were reports that some military who trained for the parade on May 9 fell ill with Covid-19. However, they called a much smaller figure of the sick. If now in the Ministry of Defense they talk about such a number of military personnel with immunity, then they sign that at least 14 thousand were sick. And given the selection of the participants in the parade by growth and age, it hurt much more. Therefore, either they, speaking diplomatically, are cunning about testing and immunity, or about the number of ill -fated.

It is clear that the participants of the parade are young people who risk getting Covid in severe form much less than, for example, veterans. And since these people, in fact, are kept in isolation - in the barracks, the virus can spread only among military personnel.

In my opinion, folk festivities are much greater epidemiological danger. How will people be organized who will watch the parade and then massively rejoice on the victory obtained three quarters of a century ago? This question personally bothers me the most.

Such a quick removal of restrictions, without a doubt, is fraught with epidemiological risks.

At the sight of a lot of people who dumped into the street and go shopping without masks, I am afraid that the second wave of the epidemic cannot be avoided.

The question is not even whether the second wave will be or not, but how much it will be high and controlled. Many people think, well, they announced the cancellation of self -isolation, removed the restrictions - which means that the epidemic has ended and from now on there is no Covid in the country. As if the virus is defeated by the wave of a magic wand! Alas, the science of infectious diseases completely denies this possibility.

Removing restrictions and what for various reasons occurs around the parade is the most dangerous, and he himself is only one of the risks.

What do readers of Novaya Gazeta think?