In the spring, at least 7 regions have greatly increased mortality, and official data on coronavirus do not explain this. Research "Mediazons"

Mediazona, together with the demographer Alexei Rakshya, studied mortality data during pandemia in April and May 2020 and discovered regions in which mortality growth is an order of magnitude exceeds official data on coronavirus deaths.

To understand how Koronavirus influenced mortality in Russia, we compared the data on all deaths in 2020 with the average mortality rate for 2015-2019. We applied the results on an interactive card.

We noticed several trends that we explain in the text below.

The increase in mortality is highlighted in red, and the fall is green. Data can be viewed both in percentage terms and in absolute values; You can also sort the regions in decreasing mortality.

When clicking on the region in the lower right corner, a schedule is built, which shows a trend compared to previous years.

The data is given for April and May separately.

April

Due to the epidemic, mortality increased in Moscow, the Moscow Region and St. Petersburg. In the suburbs, almost 500 excess deaths did not fall into official statistics on coronavirus

In April, 1750 people died in Moscow than on average over the past five years, and in St. Petersburg - by 200. Such an excess of official statistics of deaths from coronavirus in these cities.

In the Moscow region, a different situation: mortality here has grown by 900 people, and deaths from coronavirus, 419. Demographer Alexei Raksha believes that the death of several hundred people can be associated with coronavirus - despite the fact that official statistics did not take them into account.

“The severity of the position of the Moscow region was somewhere between Moscow and Peter, at least until May inclusive. I think, it can be assumed that in the Moscow region there is a lack of registration of coronavirus deaths, ”says Raksha.

According to the source of the Mediazone, which has access to data on the registration of deaths in the registry offices of Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow Region, daily mortality in these regions has increased significantly compared to last year. By May 7, the daily mortality in Moscow almost doubled compared to 2019. In the Moscow region on the same days, the increase in daily mortality exceeded 50%, and in St. Petersburg - approached 50%.

The practice of coding the causes of death in the suburbs differs from Moscow and St. Petersburg, adds a source - therefore, the region always gives statistics that are different from the two largest cities in Russia, and not only during the epidemic.

The mortality rate in Dagestan, Ingushetia and other southern regions has fallen strongly - this is due to the non -registration of the dead

In Dagestan, the number of the registry office of all deaths registered in the authorities fell by 50%, and in Ingushetia - by 25%.

“We do not know anything about mortality in the Caucasus,” says Raksha. - These data tell us only that some people stopped going to the registry office - and nothing else. <...> There is no complete statistics in Dagestan, and it is not in the entire Caucasus either, it has broken, and when it will recover, it is incomprehensible. ”

According to the demograph, in May in Dagestan they did not record a significant part of the deaths in January 2020. “That is, even before any epidemics in Dagestan there is a huge temporary lag-people bury [the dead], and then someday come to the registry office if they come. And we do not know whether everyone who should come to the registry office comes. There is a suspicion that not. ”

According to Raksha, after the beginning of the pandemic, under -registration affected other regions, where there were no such problems before - for example, the Krasnodar Territory and the Sverdlovsk Region.

Due to lack of registration, the overall mortality in Russia decreased slightly. Most likely this does not reflect the real picture

According to Rosstat, in total in April 2020, 149.5 thousand people died in Russia. This is 2.8% less than the average indicator over the past five years. Alexey Raksha believes that these data do not fully reflect the real picture.

Rosstat forms monthly statistics, collecting data. After the start of the epidemic and announcement of the non -working days regime, the registry offices changed the work schedule - this influenced the registration of deaths, the demographer explains. In addition, death certificates are issued only upon contacting the registry office, and during quarantine people try not to leave the house.

“This affects all-Russian indicators, which, because of this in April and in May, are not quite relevant. Our conclusions about the mortality rate in the country, starting in April, can be inaccurate. And if, in general, for April, apparently, the dynamics of the number of dead have not yet gone beyond the range of normal oscillations, then in May the pandemic should have inevitably manifest in statistics, if not for the situation with the registry offices, especially in the Caucasus, ”Raksha believes.

Since April, the head of the Federal State Statistics Service Pavel Malkov, in a letter to the Novaya Gazeta reporters, also spoke about the problems with the data on the registration of the dead since April. He noted that in some regions of the dead you can be buried on a medical certificate of the registry office, and therefore Rosstat ran into a shortage of data during quarantine.

Refined monthly statistics will be available in Rosstat upon request from the next summer. The Ministry of Health has relevant data, but access to them is closed: the interlocutor notes that he did not see a single scientific article that somehow cited this data. At the same time, Raksha notes, not all deaths pass through the system of the Ministry of Health - even in Moscow - therefore, this data is incomplete.

To judge whether the number of accidents has decreased due to quarantine and whether the restrictions on mortality introduced by the authorities have been affected by the time early: Rosstat has not yet published detailed data.

Some statistics can be found in other sources. For example, according to the traffic police statistics , in April 2020, 798 people died on the roads - about 200 people less than last year. At the same time, the number of murders and causing serious harm to health in April 2020 was almost the same as a year ago.

In 12 regions, mortality increased slightly - no more than 5%. Raksha believes that these are natural fluctuations; There is no data on whether this is related to the epidemic, so far. “For example, the Altai Republic. The population of the Altai Republic is 220 thousand people. Such a small population gives a huge scatter of demographic events from a month to a month, so +15% in the Altai Republic do not tell me anything at all. ”

“The justified conclusions about the growth of the total number of the deceased in April can only be drawn in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow Region, the rest of the statistics does not allow conclusions,” the demographer summarizes.

May

In 2/3 regions, mortality increased by at least 8% - even taking into account the under -registration

Rosstat has not yet published May statistics - this will happen around mid -July. which account for more than 85% of the country's population. In total, 10.5 thousand people died in May than.

“Assessment [of the situation] throughout Russia, based on these subjects, is relatively reliable. May mortality goes beyond the fluctuations and is increased, ”says Raksha.

The increase in mortality associated with the epidemic in May is visible in six regions. These numbers are an order of magnitude higher than official statistics on Covid-19

Mortality has grown in regions bordering the suburbs: in the Yaroslavl, Kaluga and Vladimir regions. In January-April, these areas showed ordinary mortality-this means that more than usually the number of deaths in May cannot be explained by the belated registration of the dead in the previous months.

In the Yaroslavl region, 135 more people died more than on average in five years. At the same time, officially in May there were 14 dead from the Covid-19 . The figure of 135 people approximately corresponds to the number of those who died in hospitals for patients with coronavirus: on May 22, local authorities reported that at that time, 109 patients died in them from the beginning of the pandemic.

In the Kaluga region, 109 people died, in Vladimir - by 105 people. Official deaths from Covid-19 here 19 and 14, respectively; The local authorities did not give other assessments.

Judging by mortality, in May the epidemic spread from St. Petersburg to the Leningrad region: 233 people died there in eight official cases of death from coronavirus.

Serious growth in May also occurred in the Penza region: 306 people with official 12 deaths from Covid-19 .

“I am inclined to believe that the growth in these areas is too well geographically concentrated around the two largest cities in the country to explain it only to the influence of the calendar factor, especially taking into account the possible slight under registration. It is very likely that this is the result of a pandemic, ”Raksha comments.

Mortality in and St. Petersburg increased the most in May; Data on these cities were published in early June. In Moscow, excess mortality was attributed to the Covid-19 , the Petersburg authorities did not comment on the registry offices.

The mortality in Ingushetia, North Ossetia and the Krasnodar Territory, which has grown in May, is most likely associated with the late registration of April deaths: last month, all three regions showed a serious decline.

According to Raksha, in the Moscow region, mortality increased by 40-50%, and in Dagestan-by almost 80%

The registry office of the Moscow region and Dagestan refused to disclose data on deaths at the request of the Mediazones. These areas did not publish current statistics on their sites, data on them will be available only by mid -July after the publication of Rosstat.

The demographer Raksha, at the request of the Mediazones, predicted the possible increase in mortality in both regions. According to his calculations, approximately 10.5-11.5 thousand people died in May in May, which is 40-50% more than usual over the past five years.

To evaluate the situation in Dagestan, Raksha relied on information that in the republic, by mid -May, about 700 people died from “community -acquired pneumonia”: “In Dagestan, mortality should increase by at least 80% compared to last year. Last May in Dagestan 1,084 people died. In the part -time, 700 people died [additionally], so I modestly added a thousand, it turned out 2,284. ”

Fixed July 01 at 14:59. Initially, the text stated that Mo and Dagestan never published statistics. According to updated data, there were still single publications, so the proposal was corrected.
Editor: Dmitry Treshchin