August Patriarch

How Alexander Lukashenko is losing control

To engage in Viktor Babariko, the main competitor in the presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko, by his own admission, asked the investigating authorities personally, in connection with which other persecution remained unnoticed, but in vain. Why plant a Babarico, at least, is understandable. But the lack of an answer to the question of why plant leaders from Telegram can reveal to us new turns of the Belarusian plot.

Alexander Lukashenko had different opponents, but all of them with their support groups knew in advance that he would win anyway. But when Victor Babariko calls this the effect of “forced helplessness”, something should be clarified.

Like generals from the considerable thesis, Lukashenko was preparing for all elections, as for the past, involving both rivals and the whole country in this retrospective. He was always lucky-his personal was always amazingly included in a powerful resonance with pragmatic-political.

The natural scraping of the political instructor from the border post turned out to be a reliable political technology of non-development-technological, political, aesthetic. He successfully avoided risks that are inevitable when changing political scenery, and he did not change them; Retrogrades, from time to time brought the country to the pen, were slightly diluted by the pseudoliberals on duty, and so in a circle.

There were tragedies here, but they looked at the country with the smile with which in Soviet times the magazine Korea Today leafed through, and mistakenly used the word “stagnation”.

No, the life that was interfered, but at the same time was not forbidden to be open and modern, was seething in a non -modern country, and this was precisely what was the formula for stability. The creative class attached the economy of Poland and Lithuania, not too burdening power with its excessive presence, and in the formula about “forced helplessness” there is a stylistic simplification. The mediocrity of what was happening did not cost the revolutionary trouble and risks of the overthrow of what could be injured, and is not reasonable, albeit grumbling, to assert himself in something less unpromising than the victory over Lukashenko?

Of course, at the beginning of the “colored” zero, they also spoke about the Maidan here, but with a sad smile, and the head of the riot police, who was too lazy to disperse a handful of carbonarians, asked them to convey:

As long as there are so many, we will beat, we will part in front of ten thousand.

Words about thousands were considered a joke, but these thousands came after the 2010 elections, and the authorities lowered the hungry chain forces from the leash; Those who believed in the Maidan were caught by alleys, pulled out of the houses, Lukashenko, discarding pretense with the West, successfully arranged opposition to Bartholomew’s night, but perhaps today the story began.

The system was configured to fight people proceeding from understandable values, and now something unknown has been spent on the scorched field. Having abandoned development, the regime actually refused to control it. Everything was clear with the ideological opponent - he waved to a peaceful life, to tradition, to sovereignty. Now something needs to be answered by people who encroached only on confidence that Lukashenko is forever.

Lukashenko himself raised his ideal enemy, whose power is only that he is not Lukashenko.

What to do with Babariko, it is clear: to plant, the rest will think about, Lukashenko never burdened himself with complex schemes, especially since there were always enough simple ones. And, yes, according to Belarusian analysts, violence still works. But Igor Losik, the Admin of the Telegram channel “Belarus of the brain”-a completely different generation, it is called “non-erect”, condescending intonations are slightly given by envy, not only the one with which the young people are clogging for recklessness. They are not afraid of landing, for them to be against Lukashenko is not a political position, which is defeated for a thousand reasons, but the environment and the obvious meaning of existence.

Sitting Babariko is a signal to those who have seen a lot. Planting a moose is to mobilize those who are not a bit, and Lukashenko is unlikely to know exactly who is more.

And if you do not plant, then what? Lukashenko, albeit late, consecrated a rush of Belarusian ITSHNI, who won global outsourcing, and approved the creation of a high technology park, a sort of Belarusian silicone valley. But, as it turned out, only in order to crush this sprout, expelling him by the inspirer Valery Tsepkol, who became the favorite number two in the elections - is the symbol brighter?

And this, of course, is not a Maidan. Here is not a fracture, here is genuine zero. If this is Ukraine, then not 2004, but 2019, not orange, but Zelensky, not Upgrade , but Reset, but with Upgrade as it turns out. If Armenia, then Nikola Pashinyan, who discovered that yesterday’s not as eternal as it was commonly believed, and that, probably, only under some hypnosis we could assume that that life could have been to be injured, and the revolution continues without other visible goals and programs.

“Sasha 3%” is a peppy slogan, which has no more relations to sociology than the Belarusian CEC - to honest elections. Lukashenko’s resources are enough so far so as not to fall into final extremes. But even if everything is for Lukashenko in August and it will cost, it will be completely different Lukashenko. That is, the same, but not forever. Still, maybe not autumn. But already August.