Translated material
Car sales in Russia will collapse for a quarter - AEB
Sales of cars in Russia will collapse in 2020 more than predicted before. According to the report of the European Business Association (AEB), car sales in Russia will decrease by 23.9% - ten times more than it was expected by analysts in January, Vedomosti reports.
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According to the new AEB forecast, the sales of new cars and light commercial cars in Russia will fall by a quarter, or up to 1.3 million. The forecast comes from preserving state programs for stimulating demand and that there will be no second wave of coronavirus. Before the pandemic, AEB predicted a decrease in sales by only 2.1% by 2019 - up to 1.72 million cars.
Other analysts also revised the forecast towards deterioration. So, VTB Capital did not expect a market reduction at the beginning of the year, now it predicts a fall by 18%.
The pandemic completely redrawn the car market in 2020. According to the chairman of the Aebom Producers Committee, Thomas Shterzel, who had recalled the American slides for six months: a small rise at the beginning of the year, an unprecedentedly sharp fall in April-May and a slow start of restoration growth in June.
So far, from January to June 2020, 636 thousand cars were sold in Russia - this is 23.3% less than the same period of 2019.
As Andrei Pavlovich, chairman of the board of the Avilon group, told the publication, in June, at the level of 2019, there were sales of cars in mass and premium segments, while there is no need to wait for further growth. It predicts at the end of the year the market drop of 30%.
Reducing the market will mean further rising prices for cars. At the end of June, car dealers said that from the beginning of the year to mid -June, cars rose by an average of 3-7%, and this trend will continue. According to the forecast of Vladimir Bespalov from VTB Capital, according to the results of 2020, cars for cars will increase by 5-10%.