Project weakness

The jerk of the Russian economy is transferred to 2030, but this is not accurately

The national projects were sent far. Already in 2030 ... This was done during a recent meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects.

President Vladimir Putin instructed to adjust national projects within three months. Moreover, this must be done taking into account the decree on the goals of national development until 2030, which also needs to be prepared. That is, as the head of state put it, it is necessary to "look at the current horizon of planning of national goals and projects, that is, in 2024."

Why did you suddenly need to look for the current planning horizon? Why does he not suit power? What has changed?

For amendments to the Constitution, they voted - and did this ascend to look in 2024? It seems, but not only.

In May 2018, after the presidential election, 13 national projects were approved with a total budget of 25.7 trillion rubles (“Demography”, “Healthcare”, “Education”, etc.). Then the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024 were formulated.

There are a lot of these goals: from ensuring the sustainable natural growth of the population of the Russian Federation to the creation of a high-performance export-oriented sector in the basic sectors of the economy.

Almost all national goals approved in 2018 are quite normal, it is difficult to object to them. But the problem is that even two years ago, some of these goals already raised questions from the point of view of the reality of their achievement. Today it has become even more obvious that it will be difficult to achieve many goals. What is difficult is simply impossible there.

And imagine the situation: 2024, the presidential election, and the national goals, which exactly by this time must be achieved, passed.

Take, for example, the mentioned goal of ensuring sustainable natural growth in the population of the Russian Federation. In recent years, the situation here has been developing exactly the opposite: the natural population decline is gaining strength. In January-April of 2020 alone, this indicator, according to Rosstat, amounted to 160.3 thousand people.

For comparison: in 2019, a similar indicator was 148.3 thousand people. Given the inertiality of demographic processes, today it is safe to say that no steady natural growth in the population should be expected by 2024.

There will be no reduction of poverty levels in the Russian Federation.

If, according to the results of 2018, in Russia, 18.4 million people had income below the subsistence minimum, then according to the results of 2019 there were almost the same amount - 18.1 million people. And according to the results of the crisis of 2020, there is every reason to believe that there will be more poor people.

And what can make us believe that a steady increase in real income of citizens will be ensured? Is this after how long the last years they fell and stopped in their fall only in 2018-2019, largely due to the methodological techniques of Rosstat? By the way, in the first quarter of 2020, the real incomes of citizens again decreased - by 0.2% in annual terms.

In other words, the situation very uncomfortable for the authorities began to emerge, when most national goals (if not all) by 2024 would have been threatened with collapse. The authorities, apparently, realizing such prospects, now decided to aim at 2030. But since it would be completely ugly to declare such a transfer to 2024, they decided to do it today.

But what exactly is not taken into account with such an adjustment.

Putting off national goals and fitting under the new dates of national projects finally discredit the idea of ​​developing the country in this format.

We do not reach the goal - well, we will move it over the horizon, we will not reach it again - we will move it again. Even in Soviet times, there was no such thing. Even if it did not work out, for example, to build communism by 1980, then the authorities at least did not move the offensive of the bright next year for the 1990th or completely on the 2000th.

It is a pity that this happened, because national goals and national projects are a normal mechanism for the country's strategic development. But, it seems, not for us and not today.