Kirill Rogov: "Anatomy of ratings"

"Last week, Levada -Center published July data on approval and trust in Putin. They are at the lowest levels, which many media reported. These are aggregated data, but the details in which the contours of real society are emerging are much more interesting. The Russian Russians are still loved or not? And if they love and not love, where are they? - writes a political scientist on his Facebook page.

"The approval rating" is the answers to the question "Are you generally approving or do not approve of Putin's activities as president of Russia?" This is exactly the issue, which is usually called Putin's Rating, the question where the sacramental 86%were in other times.

But if we compare the answers to this question with the answers to another very simple question: “Do you think that things are in the country in the right direction?”, We will find that over twenty years of Putin’s reign, the share of people who approved his activities of the president, on average by 30-35 percentage points, exceeded the share of those who were satisfied in the country. That is: if 50% of Russians are satisfied with how things are going on in Russia, then Putin’s approval will most likely be 80-85%, if 40% are satisfied, then - 70-75% of approving.

What does it mean? This means that of those who are not satisfied with how things are going on in the country, about half said that they nevertheless approve of Putin as the president. This is in itself an artifact of authoritarianism. In democratic countries, rupture of assessments of the situation and approval is also often observed, but it is much less. In America, it is approximately 10-15% (in the long term). And this is understandable. If the opposition from all its loudspeakers repeats that the president and his party are to blame for all the bad, then people are more likely to think and blame the president that they do not like. And if of all the main media is rushing that the president does everything right, then people are more likely to look for the reason for their dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in something else. People listen to the media.

Today, things are so that about 42%are satisfied in the country, not satisfied - about 40%. This in itself is interesting: this means that the entire economic collapse associated with coronavirus does not make a particularly strong impression on people. (This is the topic of special discussion, why.) At the same time, Putin approve of 60%as the president. Marge (the difference in the state of affairs and approving) is 18 percentage points. She is small. It is almost half as much as the usual "Putin" (30-35 PP).

This means that those who are not satisfied with the state of affairs in the country are much more ready to blame Putin in their dissatisfaction than before. This is what in the strict sense we call "erosion of charisma."

But there are other bad news - trust rating. Just about him we will talk about tomorrow. "