Six million cases of coronavirus “fell out” of Russian statistics? Research "New"

On September 1, the official number of those identified by coronavirus in Russia exceeded a million people. But in reality, there are much more sick: according to various estimates, their number can significantly exceed official figures. The "new" was versed in how many Russians actually had the Covid-19 and whether we managed to avoid the worst script.

Not the first million

According to the number of registered cases of disease, Russia takes fourth place in the world: only the United States (6.1 million cases), Brazil (3.8 million) and India (3.6 million) are ahead of us. But official data take into account far from all those who are sick and dead as a result of infection.

“This figure [million] is obviously smaller than the real number of sick. The reasons are diverse - from the fundamental impossibility of taking into account all cases of the disease during the rapid development of the epidemic to an attempt to conscious concealment of data on its scale, ”says Alexei Kupriyanov, candidate of biological sciences.

It is difficult to calculate the number of unaccounted for patients: this indicator depends on many factors, not all of which can be measured. One way is to take as a basis the official number of those who died from coronavirus and the assessment of mortality, taking into account asymptomatic media.

This approach is used in several epidemiological models - the Imperial College of London (ICL), the Institute of Indicators and Assessment of Health (IHME), the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the independent researcher of Youyang Gu (YYG). According to their estimates, the real number of cases in Russia exceeds the official two to five times.

Based on these models, we overcame the bar in a million sick people back in May-June, and by September 1, the number of coronavirus was supposed to reach two to four and a half million people.

Models suggest that the number of dead from coronavirus corresponds to reality and takes into account everyone who died due to infection. However, the official data is incomplete: as the "new" said, part of the Covid-19 deaths does not fall into operational statistics, but

The most reliable metric is an “excessive” mortality that shows how the total number of deaths from all causes during the epidemic was higher than average.

On September 1, a little more than 17 thousand died from coronavirus were registered in Russia. Demographer Alexei Raksha suggests that in reality the number of victims is twice as much:

“I think that about 40 thousand people have died to date [whose causes of death became Covid-19]. And the accumulated excess mortality is about 55-60 thousand from the beginning of the pandemic [all dead with the diagnosis of “coronavirus”, another disease could be the cause of death] ”.

Models of the Imperial College in London and other researchers suggest that the mortality rate of infection, taking into account asymptomatic media, is about 0.7%.

If we take this assessment, then the number of emirable Covid-19 in Russia may exceed seven million people.

In addition, you can evaluate the number of patients based on the results of testing on antibodies. Before the school year, the deputy mayor of Moscow, Anastasia Rakova, reported that the antibodies to coronavirus were found in 13.3% of the capital's teachers, and the study of the European University in St. Petersburg and the Scandinavia clinic showed that the real number of infection can be more than ten times higher than official figures:

“The results just published give an assessment of 10 to 13% of the ecclap at the end of August. On the scale of St. Petersburg, this gives a fork from half a million to seven hundred thousand (at 36.7 thousand officially recognized), ”Kupriyanov notes.

Why not everyone was taken into account

Some of the patients with coronavirus do not fall into official statistics due to the characteristics of test systems: in the later stages they can show a negative result even in the presence of a virus.

“The defeat can penetrate deep into the lower parts of the lungs and destroy them. Even a good PCR test can not show anything, but bad-especially, especially in conditions when it is specially limited, so as not to spoil the statistics. Very often messages from the regions came that they do not take the PCR tests above a certain limit-it is simply impossible. Sometimes they don’t even do CT, ”says the demographer Alexei Raksha.

In such cases, patients are usually diagnosed with community -acquired pneumonia. In spring and summer, the number of such patients has sharply increased in many regions-in the Kuban, in St. Petersburg, Bashkiria. These cases can be up to half of the real coronavirus-for example, in mid-July, the authorities of Kyrgyzstan began to be included in the incidence of Covid-19 patients with extra-acquired pneumonia, after which the number of registered cases increased almost doubled. However, it is impossible to evaluate how the incidence of extra -acquired pneumonia in Russia has changed: this diagnosis does not fall into the consolidated report of the Federal State Statistics Service.

Official data may not take into account the asymptomatic carriers of the virus - at the end of May, the Ministry of Health recommended not to include them in the statistics of incidence and mortality.

Official statistics do not reflect the real situation with the epidemic, not only because of problems with the diagnosis and testing, but also because of the frank “drawing” of incidence data. "New" repeatedly spoke about the signs of falsifications both in Moscow and in the regions.

Experts believe that it is practically impossible to use official numbers:

“The campaign to provide open operational information on the epidemic on a national scale has fallen. The method of working with data of this quality is one - after a thorough selection, throw the data for the most part of the regions into the garbage bucket and work with what is left, ”says Kupriyanov.

According to him, by the end of the epidemic, we will be able to obtain relatively reliable data on the dynamics of the incidence of ten to fifteen regions, on the basis of which it will be possible to evaluate the effectiveness of the fight against coronavirus in Russia.

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What to wait in the fall

Judging by the official figures, Russia managed to cope well with the first wave of the epidemic and avoid the “Italian script”, which scared everyone at the beginning of the pandemic. We are far from “excellent students” like Australia or Germany, however, the strategy of controlled immunization helped us-the population gradually developed collective immunity, said Ashchemin, adviser to the General Director of the International Medical Closer Fund.

However, with the beginning of the new school year, Russia can wait for a new surge in incidence. This happened in Israel:

In June, after the opening of schools, the number of those sick began to grow again, after which the country had to return part of the restrictions.

“The second wave, apparently, will be due to the fact that those who from the very beginning sat on self -isolation began to gradually go out. And among them there will be sick. But from my point of view, they will be significantly smaller [than during the first wave]. Many people have a very strong congenital cellular immunity, ”Ashshimin believes.

In some areas, the incidence of incidence is already noticeable, notes Alexei Kupriyanov. This may be due to the fact that the Russians returned from resort regions, where in July both official and indirect data showed an increase in the number of infected ones. According to him, forecasts on the further development of the epidemic can be done no earlier than in a week or two.

Even if the second wave awaits us, in official statistics we are unlikely to see it. She became completely controlled

He believes Alexei Raksha: "As Putin and [the head of the information center for coronavirus, doctor Alexander] Myasnikov will decide, it will be so."

With the participation of Anna Titova