Brother's visit

What does the Kremlin need from Belarus and why will he not get this?

In one of his speeches, Lukashenko said that not “partners”, but “brothers” about Russia and Russians. As a brother, he is going to Moscow.

For Moscow, these are difficult negotiations. I think few people have a dislike like Lukashenko - at the level of "he would have drowned in the pelvis." You can understand. A booth with a multi -vector orientation - with blackmail “I will get away from you”, could get people more tolerant than our bosses.

But negotiations will not be reduced to the warm words that Putin will say to Lukashenko when they are left alone.

Both parties need something. Lukashenko - to remain the main in Belarus. And do not go on court.

For the sake of this, he had already betrayed everything and everyone, received evidence that no one had poisoned Navalny (by the way, in the Kremlin, he may not like the statement that his intelligence is cooler than our - we could not eavesdrop, but he, then, could?), Svers to protect Vladivostok and so on.

But all this is useless. Containing it as a Minsk boss is too expensive. For the West, he is a dictator from the last century, for his people - a combination of a clown, an executioner, a coward and a traitor. If and remained, then in the deaf villages, none of the noticeable figures of Belarus supported Lukashenko publicly. Keep the situation with an iron hand - for this much would say goodbye - it does not work.

Therefore, maybe they will not tell him directly - we can only talk about the time and methods of leaving. Moreover, he is unlikely to have a prospect of a serious position in Russia-he too often deceived and showed the initiative-the authorities do not need another well-known, poorly controlled demagogue on the radical-patriotic flank.

And what does the Kremlin need? Much. Firstly, in no case to allow the victory of the revolution.

Not out of love for Lukashenko (see above), but out of fear - too close the country, not even Armenia, may well serve as an example for the Russian regions. In addition, they do not like revolutions, they sincerely do not like. And the world must be the way they want.

It is important not so much to Moscow who will be the main thing in Minsk, how much how it will become. A coup, secret agreements - please. The will of the people is never. And if this option loomes, they, alas, can go to extreme measures. Yes, you have to put an armored personnel car at each intersection - in the intervention option, they will have no one to rely on. Even Lukashenkovsky functionaries are afraid to appear enemies of their own people - by the way, this is evident by the behavior of the participants of our propaganda shows invited from there. But the victory of people is even worse from the point of view of the Kremlin. And in itself, and the consequences.

The second task is the absorption of Belarus, the inclusion of it, albeit not immediately, but in understandable and controlled terms, as part of the Russian Federation. The experienced fear and humiliation require compensation - it seems that now our authorities will not agree to anything except a single state in which Belarus will be reserved for a place similar to Tatarstan or Yakutia.

The Kremlin has several options for actions.

You can resign Lukashenko. And then, within the framework of the current Constitution, and not at the request of people - in no case on demand - to hold new elections. The departure of Alexander Grigoryevich will reduce the intensity of protests, you can try to conduct his candidate-one of the current elites, who did not stain too much close with the current ruler. At the same time, it is impossible to pull Lukashenko’s resignation - he causes such hatred and is so inadequate that from passive waiting, the elites can go to a direct opposition to him (signs of this, for example, the position of many priests of the Russian Orthodox Church, are already visible). Then everything will go through the worst for the Kremlin (the best for Belarus) the scenario and “will have to enter” the troops.

If Lukashenko’s departure is organized, then you can not promote those who are now on the periphery of social processes, but put on someone from acceptable figures of the revolution, bake or replay it or it. Such a person is easy to choose, but, firstly, this will look like the very unacceptable victory of the revolution, and secondly, the legitimacy is not so much from the Kremlin as from the people will make this person too independent and unpredictable. And what if he refuses to fulfill secret agreements on the surrender of the country to Putin?

But there is also an option between agreements with revolutionaries and the introduction of troops. If an unstable balance remains in the coming weeks,

The Kremlin can initiate the creation of some committee of national salvation, which will include industrialists, generals, former ministers-solid people, in general. They will demand Lukashenko’s departure (let him try not to obey!), But they also state that the coordination council also could not cope

With the tasks standing with him. Therefore, they, these solid people, take responsibility for the country, declare themselves as a transition government and hold new elections. Of course, there will be a candidate of the Kremlin, who will then fulfill the dream of our authorities about a single state. They, of course, will release political prisoners that, having left prison, the oppositions begin to fight each other.

This option may seem to the Kremlin the most attractive. There will be no victory of the hated street, Lukashenko’s stupidity and crimes will be dropped from the ship of our time. The new puppet regime will look quite acceptable, in operation it will be simple and reliable.

But nothing will work out! The Kremlin ignores the most important factor - the people. He always ignores him. In Khabarovsk, where, if you think for two minutes, one could not bring the situation to the current impasse. In Bashkiria, in Shies, in Yekaterinburg.

In the picture of the world of the Kremlin authorities there are oligarchs, military, thieves in law, officials, but there are no people.

More precisely, they are as an object of charity (it is impossible for the starvation, we are not animals), as a source of anxiety, like a mass manipulated by enemies. But they are not as free entities - if they went out into the street, then only because they were “brought out” by deceiving or paying.

This attitude of the times when the state, in fact, was the personal property of the overlord. With such an aberration of consciousness, of course, it is impossible to realize how mature the Belarusian society became. He can no longer be deceived by political technology. If they try to rule the country in an emergency, without elections, they will receive the same protest as now. If they hold the elections, they will lose them.

This is not a movie - we do not know how it will end now. But there is an important fact. Observers from the outside have already buried the Belarusian revolution many times - there are no resources, and the leaders are incomprehensible, and Lukashenko is not afraid of walking with balls. Everything is so. But you call in Minsk, you speak with those inside, and see that they are full of optimism, believe that time works for them. They know something.