Arkady Dubnov: "Lukashenkovskaya Belarus - Failed state?"

" Today , in Minsk, in Minsk, among the world, unknown members of the coordination council of the Belarusian opposition Maria Kolesnikova, Anton Rodnova and Ivan Kravtsova - brutally, in my opinion, changes the situation in Belarus," the journalist writes on his Facebook page.

"Brutal - that’s why: if until today the state defiantly reminded of its monopoly right to violence against citizens who, according to the authorities, violated the order, then in the morning of September 7, violence is applied anonymously, and against public personalities.

The power structures of Belarus, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the trail, the State Control Committee claim that they do not know anything about the abduction. True, the KGB is silent ... I agree with Kirill Rogov, who called this tactics of Minsk a manifestation of a "hybrid war" with opponents of the Lukashenko regime.

But after all, the use of violence in relation to citizens by unidentified people in black, and also, with the already sounded assumption that these "unidentified" may have a foreign origin, whether Russian or even Ukrainian - remember how Sergey Lavrov spoke the other day about "200 extremists", who arrived in Belarus from Ukraine, raises the question of at all dramatically: did not turn Belarus today in Failed stat - the failed state?

Indeed, one of the definitions of Failed State in Political Science is the inability of the authorities to control the situation in their country, in particular, the loss of a monopoly on violence. The official recognition of the Belarusian security forces is that the abduction of Kolesnikova and her colleagues is not their hands - it can serve as a confirmation of this.

And if so, then the logical development of this drama leads to the next stage of its development - the introduction of external management in Belarus. As it will be called, a question of geopolitics or, if you want, stylistics, is Anschlus, annexation, and maybe the provision of "fraternal care" within the framework of the Union State.

The abduction in Minsk may turn out to be a kind of Casus Belli to a sharp breakdown of Moscow policy towards Lukashenko. It still might seem that they were doing the case to somehow push Lukashenko to register the “Together” movement, led by a Babariko, who was sitting in the Minsk pre-trial detention center, and his associate Maria Kolesnikova, to offer this movement as a side of negotiations with the authorities in Minsk. And at the same time, make a split into the ranks of the opposition and destroy the bunch of the Babariko group with the Tikhanovskaya group, which is considered pro -Western, and consequently, anti -Russian.

The disappearance of Kolesnikova may undermine these plans. In fact, it looks like a “shot in the leg”, made by the Lukashenkovsky regime itself. When Lukashenko will listen to Putin in Putin in Novo -Ogarevo this week, the guest will no longer be up to the shock about the intercepted conversation of Nick and T -shirt, Sasha is no longer a “strong nut”. However, not potatoes. "