Lilia Shevtsova: "How Navalny became a challenge for the West"

"What happened to Alexei Navalny is a tragedy for his family and his associates. This is a tragedy for Russia, in which the opposition of the authorities threatens the loss of life. Today, the" factor of Navalny "has become a political event, allowing not only to make sure that Russian reality is, but also to look at Western policy, the political scientist Lilia Shevtsova on his page in his page in his page Facebook .

“So what does the“ factor of Navalny ”say about the West? On the one hand, the principles of the liberal community and its outrage are how they deal with the opposition in Russia, pushes Western leaders to a strict reaction. But besides the rigidity of rhetoric, they cannot offer anything yet. The Western answer can be sensitive when it will be collective and when the patient is impacts. Meanwhile, there are unanimity in the punishment of Russia. The most important thing: I don’t want to beat the liberal democracies not only because of the fear of the response of the Russian reaction.

Another thing is even more important. Liberal democracy does not dare to hurt Russia, because Russia is included in the Western economy, and the Russian elite is integrated "into the west." The Russian ruling class formed a protective barrier inside the West in the form of a whole layer that serves its needs. Former German Chancellor Schroeder to run away from Rosneft is an example. So it turns out that the Western response of Russia is most often a soap bubble. A reason for Moscow shook and grin.

Germany has become a country that is more involved in the salvation of Navalny and is more actively trying to force the Russian state to investigate the attempt on its murder. It is not only about Berlin's desire to respond to the use of prohibited chemical weapons in Russia. Apparently there is personal. Chancellor Angela Merkel, demanding an investigation from Moscow, cannot give up. And because she has repeatedly confirmed that she has feelings and the ability to empathy. And because it means a failure at the final stage of its brilliant political career.

The refusal of Moscow from the investigation or its transformation into a circus will be an underestimation of the fact that Germany is a superpower. By the way, it is much more important for the fate of Russia than America. It will be a spit towards Europe, which is today Germany as chairman of the EU Council. Meanwhile, the “boomerang effect” in politics is given known.

Berlin, trying to get a giving answer from Moscow, went to an unprecedented step, putting on the ultimatum to Moscow: you have several days before we begin to discuss sanctions. “Do not force us to revise the position of Northern Stream-2,” the head of the German Foreign Ministry Haiko Maas calls, hinting at the abandonment of the symbol of the Russian-German “interdependence”.

You can imagine a German dilemma. Dialogue with Russia and the hope that economic interdependence will help Russia change itself is the fact of German political mentality. But how to reconcile this fact with principles? Is it really a lobotomy? But the main thing: what to do when Moscow simply cannot conduct a real investigation of the attempt on Navalny. If the Germans understand this, then it turns out that they are more likely to be offspring. If they do not understand, they are incorrigible idealists.

However, it seems that German society is sober faster than its elite in his hopes regarding Moscow. Even before the history of Navalny, 51% of Germans in eastern Germany and 60% of Germans in the west of Germany were negatively related to Russia. In 61% of the Germans, Putin was not trustworthy. The Berlin patient will certainly force candidates for new German leaders not to look with Russophiles.

"Navalny Factor" undermined the efforts of Western supporters of cooperation with Moscow. So, the initiative of Macron about rapprochement with Russia already doubts the possibilities of its implementation. If Putin’s proposal to convene a “nuclear five” summit will be implemented, it will be difficult to avoid the question of Navalny.

It will have to be finally sacrificing their reputation to those who connected themselves to Moscow. In Germany, the requirements that Gerhard Schroeder leave his post head of the board of directors of Rosneft. It will not leave - it will close the cover of the political coffin. Although he, apparently, does not care. Trump woke up in America, which avoids talking badly about Moscow. Trump is forced to say his "how badly!" About the attempt on Navalny. After all, otherwise the Democrats will use his silence and even thunder to trim about his sympathies to the Kremlin. So Navalny joined the American electoral struggle. And since only 18% of Americans experience positive feelings for Russia, Trump has to pay tribute to the dominant moods.

The Berlin patient plus rebel Belarus, which Moscow helps to pacify - all this does not allow tired liberal democracy to continue to doze. But the West cannot understand how to respond to the gopnicism of a nuclear power. Especially when there is a more frightening threat - China. It is the last threat that makes the West convince themselves: the Russians are not so terrible; We can forgive them a lot. It is even better to meet a new attack with Russia, whatever it may be.

Everything will pass and everything will be forgotten, skeptics think. Indeed, everything goes away. But the memory, along with disgust and horror, remains before the deed. Sooner or later, this memory will become a factor in real policy. In the meantime, the "Navalny factor" remains a challenge for the Western world, to which this world is trying to find an answer. Trying - and so far cannot. But he already understands that he needs an answer at least for self -esteem. "