Belarus: Continuation of protest

The weekend and events of Monday in Minsk and the cities of the country. Is it possible to do without the leader of the opposition movement? How will the Belarusian protest develop after its leaders are squeezed out of the country and arrested?

Protest actors in Belarus. Workers, female solidarity, youth. The role of the student in protest movement. Is it possible to compare youth activity in Belarus, Ukraine, Russia?

In the studio, Maxim Goryunov , philosopher, publicist. In touch on Skype from Minsk, Evgeny Pasternak , writer; from Kiev - political analyst Georgy Chizhov (coordinator of the European Dialog group in Ukraine) and journalist Gleb Gusev (project Babel); In Moscow - Roman Udot , co -chair of the Voice movement.

Elena Fanailova is conducting the program.

Video version of the program

Elena Fanailova: We continue to talk about protests in Belarus. To today's news is added that one of the opposition leaders Maria Kolesnikov is stolen, and at the moment it is not known where it is. Is a protest possible without a leader? We will discuss youth, student protest. It was talked about the working movement in the Belarusian protest, the female movement and, as we see, this week was also marked by a student performance. We will try to talk about how the youth movement is arranged in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine. Let's see the digest: what happened in the last days in Minsk and other cities.

Elena Fanailova: Maxim, how would you describe this protest? What is the most curious?

Maxim Goryunov: The most curious is that he is. In Belarus, over the past 26 years, while Lukashenko has been in power, several generations of leaders who urged people to go out onto the streets have been replaced, to begin to defend their civil rights. All of them did not enjoy any support. I had conversations at the beginning of this year with people who could become politicians in Belarus, their answers were approximately as follows: I will not become a politician, because I know for sure that they (meaning Belarusians) will never support me, they will not collect money for me, they will not go to protest promotions, they will betray me in a quiet way. And it was a point of view that was based on the experience of the last 26 years. Every five years, the opposition put forward some leaders, these are really courageous people, they did the same thing that Babarico, Gloro, one to one, the same statements. Then Lukashenko grabbed them, they ended up in prisons, and there were no these actions. The fact that these shares appeared is a shock for everyone, and for the opposition of the older generations, and for the opposition, which now, primarily for Lukashenko himself, he did not know for sure that Belarusians could come out.

Elena Fanailova: I think they did not know this about themselves.

Maxim Goryunov: The main thing that the Bearus is thinking about now: the state of 26-year sleep, depression, when no one comes out for anything, does not give a damn about everything, they give all each other quietly. Nevertheless, for some reason it continues. Why is it incomprehensible.

Elena Fanailova: The most interesting thing is that it is impossible to predict what will happen next. Today I hardly found people from Minsk, because they are either in the courts to support their detainees, or repel their students. Busy with business.

Maxim Goryunov: About students. About two years ago, together with the Boris Nemtsov Foundation in Minsk, we did a study on youth. I took some part there. There was a presentation of our research, a person was invited by a man of 10 young civil activists, not just students, but people who show some life, go somewhere, write something, declare something. And there was a very interesting beginning of this event: the presenter said that we had a study, such and such data, let's ask the people who took part in this study that they think about it. Who is the first? And there was a pause. They offered the guy, he said: no, let's not me. Then the girl: No, not me. They were afraid simply. The oldest was 25 years old, and the 25-year-old young man is afraid to speak, despite the fact that everything seems to be legal, everything is transparent, everything was approved by the authorities, it was agreed. Young people were afraid to speak. There is one of the leading oldest analysts in Belarus Valery Korbalevich, we interviewed him, and he had a long monologue that the young generation of Belarusians was even worse in the sense of conformism, agreement, and readiness to just escape. In order for you to completely understand what is at stake: there was no Belarusian diaspora before this year. The peculiarity of the Belarusians was that they dissolved literally, wherever they arrived. Five years later, a former citizen of Belarus simply merged with the landscape, even the locals hardly distinguished them from themselves. Now there is a Belarusian diaspora. If they told me a year ago that there would be a Belarusian diaspora and she would help people in Belarus, I would laugh because the Belarusian diaspora is Oxymoron. Now there is this diaspora, and it turns out to be all around the world. She is even able to raise some means to help the Belarusians who are inside the country and suffer. This is incredible, this is a miracle.

Elena Fanailova: Evgenia, can you tell us about what happened to you this weekend? Do you support our pathos that this is a miracle? Or how do you explain it?

Evgenia Pasternak: Of course, I support. Because it is really incredible. We all say all this summer that the Belarusians are incredible, with the light hand of Kolesnikova. It seems to me that we have said this so many times that we really believed in it and became incredible. The case when the word is ahead. On Saturday, students were screwed, there was a large female march. And on Sunday, it is very difficult to evaluate how many people come out, because it is such a crowd that it is completely impossible to see it. We go to the marches, and then we watch the video from a bird's eye view, because when there is inside, you absolutely do not understand how many people on the street.

Elena Fanailova: Can you explain such a surge in student activity, youth activity right now? Does this have a rational explanation, or is it the same miracle?

Evgenia Pasternak: Students are the same people like us. Apparently, everyone got it, and time came. It seems to me that then we will then rationally explain it when it all ends. Now, when inside, rational explanations do not work very much, now some kind of faith in victory is working, an amazing sense of the birth of the nation. I really do not like pathos, but now it is very difficult without it. Students and youth are people who react most acutely to falsehood, injustice. These are even biologically the most freedom -loving people, because they grow up, biologically, you need to be in front of running changes in themselves. Now this generation has finally have the opportunity to do this over many years, there is an opportunity to break free, say your word. Immediately after the elections there were very heavy, very gloomy, black three days, when there was riot police on the streets. It so happened that I live in the area of Pritetskiy Street, where there were one of the most heavy battles, we shot almost continuously under our windows for three days. Then an amazing feeling came when suddenly the fear ended. Probably, if a person is afraid for a very long time, under the stress of fear, at some point just the limit comes, you cease to be afraid, because it is no longer possible to fear more, the limit will be achieved. We laughed, we had such a "celebration of disobedience", the city was buzzing continuously, the whole street of Pritetskiy was buzzing all the time all the time, from morning to evening, at 10 o’clock we began to buzz the cars and finished late in the evening. People walked with flowers and balls through the streets, all the cars were signaling them. I had such a feeling that we all shout out of ourselves fear for many years. We are Orem, stomping our feet, waving our hands and shouting: we are not afraid, we can no longer, this nightmare should finally end. Naturally, both students and high school students absorbed it.

Elena Fanailova: We will now turn to Kiev to Georgy Chizhov, a political scientist. I understand that this is a rather ungrateful business - a comparison of protests in Ukraine, Belarusi and Russia. Moreover, all protesters begin to be angry when someone from another country begins to give or comment on. What is your impression when you observe the Minsk protests, does it look like a Ukrainian script? What difference do you observe?

Georgy Chizhov: I think Belarusians will not be angry with us, because the really scale of Belarusian protests and the involvement of people in them surpassed what we had six years ago in Kiev and in general in Ukraine. Then we believed that throughout Ukraine several million people somehow took part in civil protests for three months of confrontation, but only in Ukraine there were more than 40 million people at that time, and in Belarus the population was only 9 million. As I understand it, in a few weeks, two million have already taken to the streets. If in Ukraine, protest activity was mainly concentrated in Kyiv and in some regional centers, and the scale of what was happening in the regional centers was not very large, then in Belarus, 40 cities, small settlements say, up to individual villages, rise. We, of course, are amazed at this scale. I must say that over the past 30 years in Belarus, a revolution has been taking place a second time. Many people forgot how it was in 1990, when Belarus, where there was no particularly active perestroika movement, but there was the Belarusian Popular Front (then it was slightly marginal, I do not want to offend anyone), and suddenly the Belarusians outraged went to the square. Then this was enough for the omnipotent first secretary and chairman of the Supreme Council of the Belarusian SSR Dementei resigned. Then the communist authorities simply could not imagine that this would happen. I think, Alexander Lukashenko, too, could not imagine this to himself, but his nerves were stronger, he did not follow the path of Dementhey, he was fighting with all this. Although the feeling that he was fighting with the elements is trying to drive the raging sea somewhere in a bottle.

Elena Fanailova : What do you think about the youth component of this liberation movement? Can this be compared with youth protest on the Maidan or in general in Ukraine?

Georgy Chizhov : When such revolutionary events take place, it is clear that the share of young people is always large enough. Unfortunately, I do not have a sufficient idea of Belarusian youth, what she is, what values she has, what kind of ideas she has about what is good and what is bad. In Ukraine, young people, perhaps even more acutely than adults and experienced, experienced injustice. The fact that Ukrainian events were called the "revolution of dignity" are still called that is actually so. Even the first "orange" revolution in Ukraine was a revolution of dignity. People went out, of course, by the totality of their dissatisfaction with the current power, but the main irritant was an attempt by the authorities to tightly cross out our dignity, say: you are a voice - but here you will do, we will do the way we want. Although formally the Maidan began after Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an association agreement with the European Union, but there were many layers. Including at that moment the society became finally clear that Yanukovych could not win the presidential elections that were planned for 2015, at the same time it became clear that he did not intend to leave the presidential post. That is, if the Maidan had not begun in 2013 due to the stimulus that had arisen, it would have begun in 2015 for the same reason why processes in Belarus are now taking place in connection with fakes in the elections.

Returning to the youth: I even think that it is not a matter of rational arguments, that young people live in this country, to build it, the most important thing is that these people are not used to adapting to lies, to doubleness, to silence, to silence. Young people are very vividly respond to the fact that their dignity, their choice are trying to cross out, and react adequately, that is, they go to protest. It is also necessary to notice how carefully and intelligently it all happens. I must say that in Ukraine, too, despite the information that the Russian media transmitted, that, they say, there is a gang of hooligans and looters, no, until the last days of the Maidan at Khreshchatyk in the epicenter of events, jewelry and fur stores worked, stalls that sold protesting food worked. Nobody, of course, occurred to anyone to rob them, or somehow it was different to marrot. But the Belarusian protest, perhaps, emphasized neatly. In Kyiv, there was no such thing that in order to stand on a bench, people took off their shoes. The time of year, maybe it was different, it was barely cold to stand, but nevertheless. The Belarusian protest is truly European. I think that in many ways it is young people who give him such a European face.

Elena Fanailova: By the way, in our report, an amazing episode with the beaten of glasses in the cafe that were made by the powerful security forces. I think this is one of the videos that shocked Belarusians.

Maxim Goryunov: The Maidan is taking place in Minsk, but he was arranged by the security forces, in general, power. There is the opposite, the opposite picture. Everything that Russian television said about the Maidan in Kyiv, that is, about the gangs of the looters, employees, civil servants directly act as a gang of looters, no matter, security officials or employees of the Department of Education.

Elena Fanailova: Today I found the post of one of my Belarusian Frandesses in Facebook’s tape, Ukrainian writes to her: “It would be impossible for us. You blame us that we are Maidanniy, and it was impossible for us to beat some kind of batons and break the glasses of a cafe.” Let us turn to Gleb Gusev, a journalist, the Babel project, was a witness to the Maidan and his participant. Tell us as an eyewitness about the actions of young people on the Maidan.

Gleb Gusev: Young people on the Maidan played an active role. Firstly, the “Golden Eagle” beat youth on the Maidan, with this the active phase of the Maidan began when it turned out that there were no survival values, but there are development values. When the youth dispersed on December 1, 2013, it turned out that their parents no longer agree that the Golden Eagle would beat their children. This was the first factor. The second factor that youth was a very large part of the protesters. The Maidan consisted of Maidan-Miting and the Maidan-camp. When the Maidan-Miting formed, people aged 15 to 30 were about 40% of it. Research was conducted on the Maidan, there are sufficiently detailed numbers. At that moment, when the Maidan turned into a camp, the youth was about a third. The third factor played on the Maidan is that despite the fact that the ultras football teams, which were on the front line fought with the Berry, made up the absolute minority, they were the most active. The ultras belongs to the first victories of the Kyiv Maidan when they captured the house of trade unions.

Elena Fanailova: What do you think about how the Belarusian protest and its young part are developing now?

Gleb Gusev: I have several friends in Minsk who tell me what they are doing. My friends carry water at night, help protesters, rescue their friends and relatives from the ships. I agree with George, who said that the rally in Belarus is European, more intelligent than Kiev, this is true. Although I can only judge in a television picture, everything looks much more civil.

Elena Fanailova: Today, the people answered the question on Twitter today, “how do you react to the fact that your adult child gathered for a rally or picket.” “Strictly forbid” - 15%, “let it decide myself” - 25%, “I’ll go with him” - 60%. This, of course, is Twitter's audience, it is more advanced. I would look at a survey of citizens on the streets of Moscow, we mostly tried to ask young people about whether the protest is possible without a leader, we mean the abduction of Kolesnikova and the specifics of the Belarusian protest.

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Do leaders need protest?

Poll on the streets of Moscow

Maxim Goryunov: In my opinion, this survey is about the difference in national myths. Still, Russia is a large army in which the generals are needed, fathers-commanders who will direct the crowd. Citizens without a commander are a crowd. In general, this is a rather humiliating characteristic. Belarusians are still partisans, the partisans do not need a commander, the partisans appear for themselves, and if punishers or gestapo catch up, new ones appear. Belarusians are a partisan mycelium in the forest. The problem of Alexander Grigoryevich - he displaces from the country, catches, abducts leaders. He believes that something depends on them. Nothing depends on them. If there is a mycelium, if they live somewhere under moss, it is not visible, then the leaders will appear by themselves. It should not be forgotten that the most important, most beloved by Belarusians, the head of the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic, Petr Mironovich Masherov received a Hero of the Soviet Union for the fact that in the forests between modern Latvia and Belarus, organized a whole partisan region, we are talking about 10 thousand square kilometers, he practically freed the whole area. It was without the help of the center. He was a teacher at school, high school students went to the forest - and three years later, a giant territory, forest, marshy was completely freed from the Nazis. From the point of view of Russians, this is impossible - where is the leader? Машеров никогда не был лидером, он никогда не приказывал, он всегда общался, он говорил. Его можно было убрать, на его место поставить другого коммуникатора, другого выразителя желания народа быть свободным, и эта система продолжит работать дальше. Здесь мы видим разницу культурную и даже онтологическую. Жизнь россиян вращается вокруг, условно говоря, царя, императора, главнокомандующего, генерала, а жизнь белорусов ни вокруг ничего не вращается: это сеть в лесу, незаметная ни для кого, как-то она сама живет, сигналы переходят между людьми.

Елена Фанайлова: Удивительная метафора. Давайте Романа Удота послушаем, сопредседателя движения "Голос". Мы говорим о роли студенчества и молодежи в социальных протестах, в том числе об отличии поведенческой линии протестанта в Москве, в Киеве и в Минске, в других городах Белоруссии.

Роман Удот: Я категорически против этих мифов, о которых только что говорили. Я бы хотел за россиян заступиться, которые, начиная со Смутного времени, нелегальными боевыми отрядами выгоняли поляков из Кремля, потом постоянно хулиганили, как могли, включая все восстания казацкие. Вообще завоевание, присоединение Сибири – это была самодеятельность. Я послушал предыдущую речь, вспомнил, как мы это делали в 1991 году у Белого дома. Я участвовал в Майдане номер 1.0, правда, международным наблюдателем за выборами, но, тем не менее, гостиничный номер мой был на Майдане 1.0. Почему-то о нем забыли, а в нем, собственно, корень Майдана версии два. Когда я говорил с людьми в 2013-14 году, они говорили: нас 10 лет не били, мы совсем другие, чем вы. Естественно, у меня есть друзья армяне, которые в 2018 году нам сделали тоже подарок, продемонстрировав "революцию любви", говорили про достоинство. У всех одно и то же. В Украине в 2004 году мне говорили незнакомые люди, а потом я уже был тренером наблюдателей и армянских, и белорусских, и у всех трех наций была одна и та же фраза: “Роман, мы от наших такого не ожидали”. Просто “вы, белорусы, необыкновенные” – это такая калька. На самом деле любая нация, которая просыпается, она от себя приходит в приятное удивление. В любом случае самоорганизация происходит необычная. И это все мифы, что русским нужен командир, в 1991 году не было командира, Ельцин выступил таким, если в перенасыщенный раствор бросить любую вещь, она образует вокруг себя кристаллы. Про кандидата Тихановскую говорили: она же жемчужина. Я говорю: почему она жемчужина? Она никто, она домохозяйка и хочет варить пельмени, жарить котлеты. Жемчужина – это соринка, попавшая в среду, вокруг нее вырастает такая прекрасная вещь, украшение. То же самое происходит постоянно. Безлидерный практически протест в Белоруссии нам это показывает. Молодежь – один из самых ярких агентов, которые выстраиваются вокруг этой песчинки и потом дарят нам это украшен ие.

Елена Фанайлова: Согласна, что от каждого народа никогда нельзя ожидать и прогнозировать, что он покажет, на каких протестах как он себя поведет. Насчет 1991 года если смотреть хронику, там все это отлично видно: и тяга людей к свободе, и массовость, и бесстрашие, все это есть. Другое дело, когда наступает исторический момент, когда это все кристаллизуется. Вопрос у меня о том, как белорусов друзья из России и Украины подталкивают: давайте вы уже наконец порадикальнее выступите, вас бьют, а вы терпите, когда вы начнете отвечать? У вас есть представления, как это устроено?

Максим Горюнов: В России 150 миллионов практически, это гигантская страна, огромная территория, а Украина – это 45 миллионов, Украина по размеру самая большая страна Европы, она больше, чем Франция. Разница между жителем Харькова и Ивано-Франковска заметна. Белорусы – это 9 миллионов 400 тысяч человек по данным последней переписи, из них два миллиона живет в Минске и еще миллион четыреста живет в области. Грубо говоря, вокруг Минска обитает до 40% всего населения страны. Плюс все города главные, в Белоруссии 6 областных центров, включая Минск. До них от Минска ехать на скорой электричке максимум два часа. Это очень компактное, очень близкое друг к другу общество, у них нет такой дистанции между друг другом. Российские эксперты почему-то разделяют Беларусь на западную и восточную, западная та, которая до 1939 года находилась в составе Польши, а восточная, которая находилась в составе Советского Союза. На самом деле разница между Могилевом, городом, который находится в ста километрах от российской границы, и городом Лида, который находится буквально на границе с Литвой, практически нулевая. И по языку, и по ландшафту, и по религиозному рисунку: вы можете приехать в Могилев, в центре Могилева будет стоять ратуша и костел Святого Станислава, вы приезжаете в Ошмяны, районный центр рядом с литовской границей, там тоже будет в центре города стоять православный храм, рядом костел. Когда мы говорим о Беларуси, мы говорим в принципе об одном городе, вокруг него пять городов, до которых два часа ехать. Все белорусы рядом, их мало, они друг друга лучше знают, они друг друга лучше понимают. Дистанция, ко г да начать радикальные жесткие действия в отношении полиции: для нас это ненормально, ни для украинцев, ни для россиян, а для них это ненормально, потому что это тоже свой. Поэтому у них есть возможность подходить к силовикам, даже самым отмороженным. Это преимущество этнически однородного общества, они друг друга знают. Если сейчас, предположим, Лукашенко уйдет, и у них появятся свободные демократические медиа, они еще ближе друг к другу станут, они совсем сплотятся. В такой среде с насилием гораздо тяжелее. Когда Януковичу понадобилось избить людей на Майдане, он привез ОМОН из Крыма. Дистанция между преимущественно русскоязычным Крымом и людьми, которые проживают в Киеве, огромная, они избивали их как чужих, как представителей другой страны. В России то же самое происходит: московский ОМОН летит в Хабаровск, чтобы избивать хабаровчан. Условно говоря, ты приезжаешь в Хабаровск, там люди практич е ски все с украинскими фамилиями, у них своя какая-то история. Мы говорим на одном языке, но опыт наш ежедневный, ландшафт и окружение в Хабаровске и Москве сильно отличаются. Поэтому москвич легко может избить в Хабаровске кого угодно. В Белоруссии не так. Если все получится в Белоруссии, когда станет ясно, кто же эти люди, которые избивали, я думаю, что речь пойдет о нескольких сотнях, не о тысячах человек откровенно полукриминального характера. Должна быть история с саботажем, и судя по тому, как Лукашенко переставляет силовиков постоянно, там какой-то саботаж уже начался. Армия еще не подключилась. Если десантников введешь, они будут бить своих?

Лукашенко пытается вбить клин, приезжает в Гродно, говорит, что “здесь преимущественно поляки”. Если вы приедете в Могилев или в Гомель, там тоже полно людей с польскими фамилиями, они там ходят в костел последние 700 лет. В Белоруссии есть татары, они тоже местные. Есть такая смешная история: два отца-основателя белорусской независимости, первый опыт белорусской независимости – это 25 марта 1918 года, у истоков стояли два брата, они из татарской шляхты. Они говорили на белорусском языке, при этом еще и на польском, и на русском. Это сложный регион в этом смысле, и при этом все они друг к другу очень близки. Поэтому с насилием таким размашистым, как в Украине, тем более как в России, тем более как в Китае, в Беларуси трудно. Точно такая же ситуация, я думаю, как в Латвии, Литве, Эстонии, там общество еще меньше, еще более сплоченное, дистанция между людьми еще меньше. Мы знаем историю про рижский ОМОН: чтобы в Латвии избивать латышей, нужны были русские, потому что ты из латышей не сильно много наберешь, которые будут готовы избивать своих же.

Elena Fanailova: Евгения, почему общество не отвечает силовикам или персонажам, переодетым в штатское, почему люди не отвечают насилием на насилие?

Евгения Пастернак: Потому что мы очень хорошо понимаем, что единственное, к чему наша власть готова – это к насилию. И как только мы перейдем на эту плоскость, как только мы тоже начнем применять насилие, нас просто закатают, потому что они ни перед чем не остановятся. То, что происходило у нас на улицах 9, 10 и 11, показало, что дна нет. Потом, когда люди выходили с Окрестина: когда каждый день думаешь, что дно достигнуто, снизу все стучат и стучат. В какой-то степени мы все заложники в руках, если честно, психопата. Мы сейчас идем по очень тонкой грани, буквально по лезвию, чтобы не скатиться в насилие. Сами люди во время маршей часто обезвреживают провокаторов. Мы в каких-то чатах все время говорим: тихо-тихо, давайте в мирное русло, насколько возможно. Колесникова говорила: если мы не победим, нас закатают.

Елена Фанайлова: Вы не испугались после страшных репрессий, кадры с синими телами через весь интернет прошли. Поразило то, что эта жестокость не подавила протест, напротив.

Евгения Пастернак: Были три дня, когда я даже плакать не могла, все было настолько ужасно, что даже слез не было. Я первый раз заплакала, у нас выборы были в воскресенье, в среду рано утром я вышла на улицу, увидела первую цепочку женской солидарности. Они самые первые были с утра на Комаровке, я наткнулась на женщин с цветами, которые держали в руках фотографию девочки, пострадавшей в Гродно. ОМОН протаранил машину якобы за то, что они гудками поддерживали протестующих, травму получила пятилетняя девочка. Наверное, это первый раз, когда меня накрыло, когда я разрыдалась прямо на улице. Мы не перестали бояться, нам страшно, каждый день страшно. Много людей сейчас боятся даже выйти вечером на улицу во двор, у нас дворовые сообщества, мы во дворах гуляем. Многие боятся выйти туда, потому что "тихари" носятся по городу и вытаскивают. Колесникову среди бела дня затолкали в какую-то машину и увезли. Мы продолжаем бояться, но уже нет сил больше. Это та грань, когда ты понимаешь, что так больше невозможно. В конце концов, за нами дети, им надо будет жить в этой стране. Нельзя сейчас останавливаться. Чем чернее зло, тем ярче добро, чем хуже насилие, чем больше мы узнаем о том, что было 9-10 августа на Окрестина, тем больше придает сил это знание, понимание того, что останавливаться нельзя.