Yandex against Sberbank. Why are two ecosystems better than one

Why Yandex Tinkoff Bank, is such a transaction to the State Sber and Russia as a whole beneficial? About this in the new issueof the program "Money at Free" with economic publicist Maxim Blanc .

Coronavirus occurs. But, as I predicted, the full quarantine of the authorities of most countries, where a new outbreak of incidence has already already begun, are not dared to introduce. So far, Russia was no exception. Even in Moscow, where on Thursday the number of new cases exceeded a thousand, and on Sunday-for two, the authorities have so far limited themselves to tightening the glove-gas regime. Everything else remains at the level of exhortations and recommendations. So those who do not want to become infected and get into the social monitoring system, without an urgent need, it is better not to stick out the nose on the street.

Fortunately, many conscious employers return the "remote". In these conditions, information technologies come to the fore, which allow you to minimize contacts between people.

Full video version of the program:

Last week it became known about the upcoming purchase by Yandex of TCS Group. This is the head structure of the Tinkoff Bank. The transaction is estimated at 5.5 billion dollars, of which, according to Reuters, half will be paid "live" money, and the second half - shares of Yandex. The news turned out to be so good that on the Moscow Exchange, Yandex shares took off from 4,500 to 5600 rubles apiece. Then, however, they fell below 5 thousand on the total sale of Russian assets. But the significance of the upcoming merger - Oleg Tinkov in his comments prefers not to talk about the sale of business, but precisely about the merger - this does not reduce. Both Yandex and Tinkoff Bank, after the completion of the transaction and mutual integration, will make a qualitative leap.

Oleg Tinkov

Take the same Yandex. He refused to build “Russian Amazon” together with Sberbank (now Sberbrus) and decided to go his own way. In June of this year, a "civilized divorce" of former partners took place. As a result, the Yandex.Money payment system completely departed to Sberes and was recently renamed the maneuvering "Yumani". The IT giant with dozens of services and areas of activity without its own payment system today looks, to put it mildly, not quite modern.

If Yandex should buy some bank, then this

It is clear that at least the reproduction of Yandex.Money and the development of related financial services after the "divorce" with the Sberic priority became one of the priorities. Buying a ready -made banking business with a license and 10 million customers is already the fastest and most reasonable solution to the problem in itself. And if we take into account that Tinkoff Bank exists exclusively on the Internet and is one of the Russian leaders in the introduction of information and banking technologies, it becomes obvious: if Yandex should buy some bank, then this one.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yandex head Arkady Volozh. September 2017

As a Bonus, Yandex will receive additional opportunities to finance the rest of its projects in the field of artificial intelligence, unmanned vehicles, and the development of user services. But the main thing is that the Russian Google will receive invaluable information about the structure of expenses, consumer preferences and the financial condition of users, analyzing which he can offer each of them exactly what a particular user wants and can buy. The use of neural networks to process this gigantic array of information will allow Yandex to switch from "hit on the areas", to the verified high -precision blows. Actually, this is exactly what Sber is trying to do, developing its own ecosystem. And in order to fully compete with Sberbrus, Yandex lacked only a banking link.

Tinkoff customers will not be so much from Sberbank as all other banks

About the winning Tinkoff Bank, which, according to Oleg Tinkov, will retain its own brand, and will not turn into Yandex.Bank, and there is nothing to say. He had a chance to play in the same league with Sberbrus, despite all the talents and ambitions of Tinkov. Especially when you take into account the leukemia of the latter and claims to it from the American tax authorities. But after the merger with Yandex, Tinkoff, like Sber, will become “more than the bank” and will turn into one of the most significant elements of the ecosystem, which is in no way inferior, and in some ways seriously surpasses what Gref’s brainchild has at the moment. To increase the client base with the capabilities of Yandex will also not be a big problem. Moreover, Tinkoff customers will not be so much from Sberbrus as all other banks that will simply not be able to compete with two super -systems comparable (at least in Russia) with Google or Amazon.

German Gref and Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina

As for Herman Gref, his appearance of a potential competitor is not so much worried as it pleases. And the point is not even that “to run” with an opponent will have to be much faster, and the Yandex Alliance with the Tinkoff Bank advancing on the heels will become a good incentive for all elements of the Sberbank ecosystem. The main bonus of Gref is that in his conflict with the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina (she was unhappy with Sberban's transformation due to the threat of the rest of the Russian banks), it was he, Gref, was right. The emergence of another information and financial ecosystem will mean that the strategy aimed at competition with the bank with world IT giants was true. And gradually the model that Sber is building will become a technological standard. And this standard will send traditional banks.

As, for example, occurred with the possibility of quick transfers from a card to a card by phone number. It was Sberbank who realized it, and this gave him such an advantage that the Central Bank had to develop his own analogue in order to reduce the technological gap of his own “daughter” from the rest of the market. Today, a bank that is not connected to the fast payments system, not a single retail client will open an account. Yes, and corporate ones will think ten more times.

Banks that cannot withstand the hard innovative pace offered by the leaders will be supplanted from the market

But only the functions of the Bank of Russia do not include providing the banking system with the latest technologies. The situation with the creation and implementation of the quick payments system is a single exception, and constantly provide Sberban competitors, and now Yandex will not be able to, and will not want to, and will not want to. So over time, those banks that cannot withstand the hard innovative pace offered by the leaders will turn out to be replaced from the market, at least from retail. Or they will ultimately themselves become part of one of the ecosystems, bring their customers there and pay detailed information about all their operations to save their own life. And the ecosystems of Sberbank and Yandex, running this information through advanced and constantly improving artificial intelligence systems, will offer each client exactly what he wants and what he deserves.

For end users, the appearance of an alternative to the scope will be good news. The choice is always better than its absence. Those who, for one reason or another, do not complain the current Russian state and do not want to have any business with it will be able to go to a private ecosystem, without sacrificing their principles. Two almost identical technological platforms with almost the same set of services and functionality can coexist for a long time. Long -term rivalry of Android and iOS is a clear proof of this.

The government in the fight against the fall of business and the population’s income has practically fulfilled

Against the background of digital idyll, the rest of the Russian economy looks quite alarming. On Friday, September 25, an official message appeared on the website of the Government of the Russian Federation that the Cabinet of Ministers approved a nationwide plan for the restoration of the Russian economy. Its goal is to restore employment and incomes of the population, growth in the economy and its long -term structural changes. The plan is designed until 2024. And now attention: in general terms, he was represented by President Vladimir Putin back in June and at the same time he was approved by him. But this is not the most curious. The government estimated the cost of restoring the Russian economy at 5 trillion rubles, of which 4 have already been spent. Simply put, the government practically fulfilled its mission in the fight against the decline in business and the population’s income, and employment supported. Further somehow yourself. And so that it was not boring, also taxes will be raised from next year.

Currency exchange rates in Moscow. September 24, 2020

A curious coincidence. Friday, September 25, was marked by a large -scale sales of the ruble. The dollar rose by one and a half rubles, the euro - to the ruble with a quarter. Moreover, the European currency has exceeded 91 rubles, which has not been since 2016. It is clear that this is nothing more than a coincidence, especially since on Monday, September 28, the dollar and the euro were added to the ruble in price-now in the Armenian-Azerbaijani war. But when the government of any country approves the "nationwide plan for the development of the economy", the market, as a rule, reacts differently. The news becomes his main driver. But this is in some other country, not in Russia.

In current circumstances, this can drop the ruble even more

In general, the past week, during which the dollar added three rubles in price, became for the Russian currency one of the worst from the beginning of the Pandemia of Coronavirus. The situation did not even save the situation that the annual collection of Sberban shareholders approved the record in the history of Russia - 422 billion rubles. Money (and half of them will receive the government) will be transferred to shareholders until October 5. In the current circumstances, this can drop the ruble even more. Foreign shareholders - they make up the vast majority of shares holders who are in free circulation - will prefer to buy currency for the money received and withdraw it from the country.

How the Bank of Russia will react to this is not yet clear. One thing is obvious: without its intervention, the collapse of the ruble can take an uncontrolled character. The choice in front of the regulator is quite unpleasant. Or now sell currencies for $ 15–20 billion in order to satisfy the demand from foreign investors. Or observe how quotes first euro, and then the dollar become three -digit - how a result, prices fly up first for imports, and then for everything else - and only after that begin to extinguish a hot fire, raising rates and limiting ruble liquidity in the market. However, the second path is poorly compatible with the restoration of the economy. So it is possible that the government will have to rewrite its national plan more than once.