Igor Aidman: "Balls against cobblestones"

“Of course, it is incorrect to compare the situation in Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Russia. Each country has its own specifics. The punitive system in the two East Slavic countries is an order of magnitude stronger and sophisticated than in Kyrgyzstan. There is no explicit split of the elites and others,” the sociologist writes on his page on Facebook .

“Nevertheless, it is obvious that these countries demonstrate two fundamentally different paths of the development of protests. The Russian -Belarusian path of demonstrations, round dances, cool posters, air balls, policemen flowers. And Kyrgyz - broken doors, overturned fences, twisted from bridge cobblestones, fast onslaught and hard storm.

The second path does not necessarily lead to victory (everything can end in the brutal suppression of the rebellion), but is able to lead to it. The main condition for success: not to miss the moment ("delaying death is like") when the power is disorganized and it is at that moment to hit hard.

But the first path of "balls", unfortunately, never leads to victory. It usually ends with nothing, the exit of the couple into a whistle and a new wave of repression, as it was in Russia in 2012.

PS I do not write about the long -term consequences of such a revolution (will it lead to democracy or change of clans in power depends on many other circumstances), but only about the technology for eliminating the ruling regime. "