Evgeny Kuznetsov: "We meet the second wave about the same set of imperfect funds"

"The second wave began. There were timid hopes that a certain" immunity "revealed in the spring, developed not on Covid, but to related coronaviruses (causing light SARS), will bring us closer to collective immunity earlier than with the maintenance of the main virus for this distribution. Alas, no. As soon as favorable climatic conditions for the virus arose - it was manifested in full The program, ”writes Evgeny Kuznetsov, general director of the Orbit Capital Partnerships on his Facebook page.

"Why do not people understand what humanity has encountered? Where is this leisure chatter, which becomes the fault of the massive non -compliance with the necessary measures to contain the epidemic? There are several reasons.

Firstly, a very low level of knowledge on biology. And therefore, the complete misunderstanding of the fact that the new virus that came to the population is a much greater danger to people than any "familiar." And human immunity to him is practically not trained, and medicine does not have clear and most importantly effective deterrence methods. While collective immunity develops, and while doctors learn to treat a new disease, the level of spread of the virus will become very significant. And this is a terrible threat, given how dangerous and unpleasant the course of the disease is.

Secondly, in Russian society there is completely no understanding of what an exponential process is. And therefore, everyone is stubbornly trying to draw conclusions from the "today", not understanding that "tomorrow" has already been programmed with inexorable processes. The exponential growth in the spread of the virus means that if today it is still “normal” today, then tomorrow it will be “very bad”, but people do not know how to think so, they hope for a miracle, for a “curve to take out”, anything they want.

Thirdly, the authorities (both political and medical) themselves are in panic, because they do not know how to control crises of this scale and current. More precisely, there are simple protocols for the fight against epidemics that saved humanity before, but taking into account the scale and characteristics of the virus (the “novelty” mentioned above for the population), the use of classical epidemiological schemes will lead to a complete paralysis of life. There is a severe dilemma - what can be limited in society without losing its performance, which will be sufficient to inhibit the growth of the epidemic. And all this, as he said above - in conditions of high nonlinearity of the process, when it is worth a little too much to “loosen”, rapid growth will begin.

Sweden conducted an experiment - paid the lives of thousands of old people who would not die, when applying comparable measures, as in Denmark, Norway, etc. Collective immunity in the end did not arise, and therefore, was this price justified? And the economy has not suffered much less.

There were no finished “proven” shutters of the epidemic - there are successful cases of Singapore and South Korea, but they are based on such mass testing that no one could reproduce anymore. In other words, we meet the second wave by about the same set of imperfect funds, as it was in the first. The quality of treatment of severe patients - there will be fewer deaths a little. But only if there is no overflow of the bed fund, which means that mortality becomes a direct consequence of the effectiveness of public measures to limit the growth of the epidemic.

In fact, certain forms of quarantine and distance are the only thing that worked in the spring and works now. And it is precisely this, the last hope of people, that the Covidoskeptics destroy.

This is paradoxical and unpleasant, but the most imperfect institution of modern society is the ability to trust specialists, not demagogues. It is clear to specialists (unlike profans), it is clear that each separately quarantine event does not guarantee success. We overcome each barrier for the virus. But the more such barriers are built, the higher the chances that they will work. Masks are not perfect, but in combination with distance, high hygiene, restriction of distribution through “hidden channels” (such as children) - it slowly begins to work. Now it is fashionable to pull out one tool out of context and criticize it, but the whole system works, and only that.

Here is a specific example - with masks. They, as you know, work effectively only in the case when they (and correctly) wears the patient (!). A healthy mask protects weakly. But the patient is well shielding, reducing the harm from him. Given the fact that with Covid, the patient becomes a distributor a day or two before the manifestation of the disease due to the full program, this becomes a decisive factor-it is precisely those who are sure that “I am healthy” and are the main motor of epidemics. And this means that wearing a mask is an act of responsibility (adulthood) and solidarity, readiness to sacrifice minimal convenience for the sake of other people. But we are not fashionable to be jointly and take care of others - each for himself, and therefore so many "offended" from a simple demand.

The epidemic clearly divided society into those where solidarity is a basic code - and this is Germany, Scandinavian countries, Japan, China - and there are exemplary low indicators for incidence and mortality. And those where solidarity is not in honor, or there are social habits that interfere with it (as in Spain and Italy). It turns out that the basic property of a person’s attitude towards other people - caring or cattle - are a more effective way to victory a virus than billionths of the pharmaceutical industry. But "they are obliged to treat us," but "we owe nothing to anyone." And in the end, people die, those who could well survive if someone had taken care not only about himself.

Unfortunately, the rigidity of forbidden measures is a direct consequence of people's inability to self -organize. In the notorious Sweden, people themselves followed all the rules, and did not require special prohibitions of the authorities. If everyone, to the best of his own responsibility, was able to take all the necessary measures to non -proliferation of the virus (and the media and the network would not carry the blizzard, but calmly explained that, why and why), then many restrictions could not be introduced. But alas. There is no need to hope for the consciousness of people.

In general, on the threshold of the second wave, which already started faster than the first, the most difficult thoughts. It would be good if the vaccines were still working and safe, and they were quickly made. But it is too early to hope for it, alas. "