Sergey Lavrov. Photo: Foreign Ministry of Russia

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a very tough statement: Russia can stop the dialogue with the European Union. Perhaps, the minister Lavrov had not yet performed, and what provoked him to these words, I do not know - perhaps a long conversation with Josep Borrere, the head of European diplomacy. Their conversation was apparently unconstructive.

Naturally, this statement will be perceived in the EU with great displeasure and indignation, but I would look at Lavrov’s words through the prism of a long process, which began for a long time - long -standing than the crisis in the relations of Russia and the EU. The roots of this statement go away when the relationship was absolutely rainbow and radiant.

General, but incomprehensible

In the 1990s, the basis of new relations between the European Union and the Russian Federation was laid down. These two international subjects appeared on the map of the world almost simultaneously: Russia - at the end of December 1991, and the European Union - in February 1992, Russia and the EU are peers in its current mortgages, but the heirs of a long tradition, Russian and European. At that moment-and this was recorded in the partnership and cooperation agreement in 1994 (ratified in 1997)-Russia and the EU established a close partnership, which at some point was even called strategic.

This is not “Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok” - such a slogan was nominated by the President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev in 1989, it was the slogan of the pan -European house, behind it did not stand any practical structure. But behind the partnership of Russia and the EU there was a concrete idea: integration, but Russia was supposed not as a member of the EU, this was never discussed, but as a certain part, it is not entirely clear what, but clearly significant, that large Europe, which then began to be built.

And Big Europe, as it was then seen, had an expanding European Union - between 1992 and 2007. It increased more than half in the number of countries - but in addition, it would also include the former Soviet republics, primarily Russia. A certain pan -European sphere was created, but Russia's status in this area has never been described or even discussed; It was simply understood that Russia will be part of Europe, and it was implied by both sides.

As far as both parties equally understood the partnership, the question is difficult and now, apparently, we can conclude that they understood differently. But the main principle on which the relationship was to be built was that the legal and regulatory framework for this partnership - from the structure of the state to economic regulation - is taken from the European Union: it is obviously better, obviously correct. Ideally, all countries that entered the European sphere had to adopt European norms and rules and continue to become EU members (who could do this by virtue of their size), or - as Russia and Ukraine - to become associated participants. Harmonize legislation with Europe, but one way, in the European one.

And in this, I note, is a fundamental difference from the idea of “Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok”: Mikhail Gorbachev, of course, did not think about any details of the pan -European house, but by itself it reasoned that the partnership would be equal. The President of the USSR and his associates were guided by the idea of convergence, mutual rapprochement: the Soviet Union with its pluses, the European community (then not the Union) and the West as a whole-with our own, we somehow articulate them, and something very good turns out. Utopia, not a plan.

I must say that the most serious efforts to embody this plan-the entry of Russia into the pan-European sphere on European principles-were not committed in the 1990s. Under Boris Yeltsin, and in the early 2000s, under Vladimir Putin, the first presidential term. Under Yeltsin, it was difficult to talk about integration with Europe, it was necessary to overcome the internal crisis. And in the 2000s. The state and apparatus stabilized, oil revenues filled the treasury, and then President Putin - from 2001 to 2005 or even 2006. - I began to earnest the possibility of the agreed partnership with the EU to implement, continue rapprochement.

It is clear that no longer general

But the potential of Russia has grown significantly by that time, the ideas about what role Russia should play in partnership with the European Union increased: the ideas about indisputable subordination to European norms were not perceived as legitimate, partnership should be created, if not on equal terms, at least on special conditions. But the European Union approached Russia - without considering, I repeat, as a candidate for an entry - as if she were a candidate! That is, no special conditions for Russia never were talking about any special conditions, this would contradict the principles of European integration itself.

That's why since the mid-2000s. The border of erosion of the very idea of the partnership of Russia and the EU, strategic and integration. Erosion was quite slow, and not only for the reason that Russia began to change significantly in domestic politics and in the external, but also because the EU also began to experience a transformation that could not be expected: it began to enter into crisis circumstances, they entered in full force in the early 2010s.

And now, if we look already in the 2010s, we will see that the frame remained the same, the one that was outlined in the early 1990s, in the basic agreement that still acts, and the content of the relationship was more and more removed from what was then. The tasks of the parties, and most importantly, the ideas about themselves diverged further and further.

The brightest illustration is the transcript of the press conference of the last Russia-EU summit, which took place in Brussels at the end of January 2014. Maidan was already raging in Kyiv, until the flight of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych and the change of power remains, relations with Europeans are harenging, because we ended up on different aspects of the barricades with them, and President Putin and then chairman of the Putin and then chairman The European Commission Manuel Barroza continues to repeat the same mantras that have been repeated before for years, if not for decades: partnership, common space, road maps, etc. And their faces were that it became clear: nothing would happen. But there were no other formulas! Everything was still from the beginning of the 1990s, all the same application for the future close partnership acted. Then Ukraine happened, then a lot of things happened, in general, that frame became completely anachronism: real relations entered the antagonistic and highly competitive phase. Although it was still talking about partnership, about dialogue, about everything that was 25 years ago.

And now the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, one might say, failed a line under this whole story. I perceive his statement as a statement: everything is over, that frame is no longer.

This does not mean, of course, that the relations of Russia and European countries end, but they end in the form in which they were.

General, but another

Now a new frame should appear, but it will have to wait for it for a long time. Now we have completely different circumstances, and they are dictated primarily by the fact that both Russia and the EU, each in their own way, are in a state of deeper internal transformation. And both transformations occur in the context of a randomly changing world. The transformation itself is a rather painful process, plus it is superimposed on full external uncertainty. For all countries of the world, that is, for the EU and Russia, too, the process of internal reconstruction will be more important than any external relations. It may now seem to us that this is some kind of anomaly, but in fact it is a new state of the world, and the situation will still aggravate. This is best seen in the example of the United States, the world leader, the world hegemon: there we see how domestic politics absolutely gobbled up everything else. This is not a short process, and it is not connected with the eagerness of President Donald Trump or some particularly vicious qualities of Vladimir Putin,-we entered the era of radical reorganization of the world.

And the frame that we, perhaps, will seek in relations with Europe, will not appear precisely for the above reasons, now it’s simply not up to it. Of course, the iron curtain between Russia and the EU will not collapse, relations - humanitarian, economic, which, although they suffered from sanctions, remain intense, cultural and even political - remain, but these are utilitarian relations, without hints of joint purposes, with much greater attention to bilateral relations with individual European countries. We become just neighbors, we are not owed to each other, but we are forced to contact.

But even more we are forced to contact with now our main neighbor - China. He is not the main thing because we quarreled with the West and we have to turn there, although this is also significant, and first of all, because when we have a country near the gigantic common border, which will look, if not a global hegemon, then one of the two pillars of a new world order, then we want to pay more attention with this neighbor than we are accustomed.

The most important factor - and he will also seriously change our relationship with Europe. In particular, simply because the world changes east. For the better or to the worst, another question is completely not a fact that in the better, but the Europo- and West Centrism, which Russia has been accustomed to about 300 years, it simply ceases to comply with the world picture. We cannot afford - while we continue! - To perceive Asia as something secondary. If you continue, then indeed, creeping expansion from the other side will begin.

In any case, there is an exhaustion of the previous model of relations with the European Union, and it will soon be conceptualized - one way or another.

Russia and the EU closed the page in relations