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Mikhail Mishustin and Vladimir Putin Photo: Kremlin.ru

The expert environment discusses the thesis of the political union of Mikhail Mishustin and Herman Gref. I read about this with the economist Vladislav Inozemtsev. The bottom line is that shortly after the appointment of Mishustin, the prime minister previously owned by the Central Bank of Sberbank, was transferred to the government, and the people of Dmitry Chernyshenko, who had previously worked at Gazprom-Media, headed his media-advertising direction. Chernyshenko - Deputy Mishustin, who is just responsible for the media. As stated after this in the savings, the corporation is going to take leading positions in the domestic advertising and media market.

It should be remembered here that the media in Russia is not just a business. This is much more. Control over the media space is a key tool with which the Kremlin holds power. It is enough to recall the brutal wars with the oligarchs and “unique journalistic groups” through which the regime had to go in an attempt to establish this very control. So the logic of almost any solution in this area is primarily political in nature.

If the Kremlin really allows Mishustin to build his own media imperial with the help of Sberbish, it will be safe to say that the decision on the successor was made, and he began to create his own political infrastructure. To take place as a public policy, Mishustin will need information support.

Although the approval of his activities after the appointment as a whole demonstrated good dynamics, recently the prime minister has an increase in anti -rating. If in July it was 27%, then by October, according to the Levada Center, it became 38%. The anti -rating of the Prime Minister grew up even in August, extremely favorable for the regime as a whole, when confidence in President Vladimir Putin strengthened, and the governors intensified, and the number of people who positively evaluating the country's prospects increased. The increase in the number of respondents who at the same time spoke disapprovingly about the activities of the Russian prime minister indicates that the attitude towards him began to split from the attitude to power as a whole. The prime minister began to live his own political life, and he has a hard time.

To become a full -fledged politician in personalist regime is generally not easy. While Vladimir Putin is in power, the rest are forced to be in his shadow. When taking some step, any representative of the Russian power hierarchy is primarily forced to think not about the voter’s reaction, but about how the president will perceive his actions. The steps and actions of such a policy will forever lack what is called authenticity - sincerity, authenticity. He will look fake, Plexiglusov.

In principle, while the president’s rating was high, and people believed in the prospects of the regime, this eternal stay in the shadows could still be endured, but in a situation of growing protest moods it becomes a truly serious problem. At such moments, people cease to forgive representatives of the system what they looked at the fingers yesterday. The one who was previously called a “technocrat” can today receive a definition of “no”, but for “no”, as you know, they do not vote.

In general, the two main political tasks, now facing Mishustin, look completely mutually exclusive. It is necessary to demonstrate: Putin - loyalty, society - independence. It is extremely difficult to slip between Scylla and Haribda here. The previous government chairman Dmitry Medvedev, for example, could not.

However, in full accordance with the logic of dialectics, in Putin's non -alternative there is a circumstance that works for the prime minister. The society is so tired of the irremovability of power that almost any alternative will be happy. If you do not make obvious stupid things - and Mishustin, of course, is not inclined to them - people will be satisfied with the very fact that the head of state will finally be a person whose surname will not begin with the letter “P”. The only thing that is required to ensure a calm election of the successor is to prevent real competition. During the previous presidential campaign, even Pavel Grudinin, until the little -known strawberry king, turned out to be such a serious enemy that he had to abandon all his strength to fight him, and even then it turned out badly.

Mishustin has another trump card. I don’t know if it can be called a “digital genius”, but it is definitely much closer to this definition than Medvedev - which, as you know, was also fond of the “figure”. For the former prime minister, it was a game, for the current all this is seriously. And it is no accident that German Gref started a sharp shift of Sberbank in the direction of the digital corporation precisely after the pre -change of the prime minister. Gref even organized rebranding so that it sounded luright. It is understandable, he also needs allies, hardware competitors also squeeze him. The sensitive head of Sberban was the first to catch the prospect of “political-civilian” cooperation with the new chairman of the government, but sooner or later the ordinary voter will feel it.

From the point of view of the electoral prospects, the prime minister is of great importance. The issues of digitalization and the “Tomorrow Economics” are easily converted into the topics of progress and future. This is exactly what our people lack. The Putin regime lives yesterday, his agenda has exhausted itself. You can’t go forward for a long time with your head turned back. From talking about our glorious traditions and great history, people are pretty tired. They understand that everything is in order with the past, but with the future, in their opinion, there are many ambiguities. Russians are afraid of the future. The country froze in anticipation of a politician who will show that he firmly knows what awaits us, and finally organizes the movement forward. The current prime minister with his background is quite suitable for this role.

What will Mishustin do after his election? So far, no one knows this, including Vladimir Putin. In Spain, democratic transit was launched by people who, during the reign of dictator Franco, were considered his faithful followers. I think that if by 2024 a consensus is formed in society regarding the need for democratic reforms, then Mishustin will not resist for a long time. It seems that he is a non -conflict person and if it is true, then it will be one more - perhaps the most important thing is an advantage.

Mikhail Mishustin as a successor