Experts doubt the high rating of protection against coronavirus on airplanes

Statistics provided by IATA and a study by the US Department of Defense, indicating the practical impossibility of contracting a coronavirus in the cabin of an aircraft if basic precautions are observed, underestimate the threat, Reuters writes , citing expert opinion.

According to infectious disease specialist David Friedman, the IATA calculation is misleading, although it was based on the work of the scientist himself. According to the organization, 44 reliable cases of transmission of coronavirus infection in the cabin among 1.2 billion passengers means that the probability of getting coronavirus on an aircraft is 1 in 27 million, which is much less than the likelihood of a person being struck by lightning.

Friedman says that this calculation is incorrect, since the number of actual cases of infection on planes is unknown: “It is unfair to take 1.2 billion passengers in 2020 as a denominator, since almost no one was tested. The absence of evidence of existence does not prove its absence.

Representatives of IATA said they consider the calculations to be relevant and reliable evidence of a low risk of infection in the cabin: "We did not claim that this is a final and absolute figure." IATA itself indicated that it was ready to recognize the probability of infection on an airplane as underestimated by an order of magnitude. But rather, it is underestimated by at least two orders of magnitude, Enri Wu, a professor at Emory University School of Medicine, told Reuters.

Experts have two complaints about the study of the circulation of coronavirus in the cabin of the US Department of Defense (the main conclusion is that if there are masks on a modern aircraft, it is difficult to get sick even in a seat next to the carrier). Firstly, the threshold of infection has not been determined, and secondly, the flight duration factor is underestimated: long-hour flights can become foci of infection.

heavy losses due to the pandemic The airline industry is suffering , due to the need to leave empty seats to ensure distance and collapsed demand for air travel. It is estimated that airlines around the world could lose $252 billion in 2020.