46 million Frenchmen are sitting at home from 21.00 to 6.00. The worst is ahead

By the end of October, the authorities seriously tightened sanitary measures by the end of October, having already put 46 million people (more than two -thirds of the population) at the commandant’s hour. President Macron warned that at least until December, measures would not soften, but rather and almost certainly tightened. The Minister of Health Olivier Veran said, speaking in parliament on Saturday:

The situation in the coming weeks will only worsen, "no matter what measures we take."

The minister asked deputies to approve the extension of the sanitary emergency regime until mid -February 2021, which was immediately done. The emergency allows you to take many tough measures. Every day, more and more clearly the hints of the authorities that the second quarantine, which “I would like to avoid by all means,” is almost inevitable - at least in certain parts of the country.

Resuscitation measures of the authorities

The commandant’s regime from October 23 is already operating in 54 departments out of 99, including Paris and all major cities. From 21.00 to 6 in the morning you can go out only for a “good reason”, noting in the form of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, on what basis you allowed yourself such a privilege: walking dogs, visiting a relative who needs to leave, emergency work ...

For access to the street without a “good reason” - the same fines as for the treacherous violation of quarantine (I recall that the inhabitants of France were sitting home for almost two months from mid -March to the beginning of May).

• 135 euros - for the first time,

• 1500 - for a repeated unauthorized exit to the fresh air,

• 3750 euros and up to six months of imprisonment can be written out to “recidivists”, who violated the commandant hour more than three times.

• The same, 3750, by the way, is also given for violation of the “mask regime”: to always be in a mask - the fate of the French since August.

12 thousand police officers are now checking whether the French are leaving home correctly - the Ministry of Internal Affairs announced this.

( At the same time, after a recent terrible terrorist attack, the Ministry of Internal Affairs again complained about the “lack of human resources” to track radical Islamists-this detail is in no way connected with the development of the epidemic, but gives an idea of ​​how serious the authorities are suitable for curbing the terrible Covid-19. )

In the first three months, 29 thousand people died from the consequences of coronavirus in France, over the next five months, by the end of October, this list has grown by almost 6 thousand names.

That is, by the most gloomy times of March-April, when a thousand people died a day from Covid, the country did not return.

Nevertheless, in recent weeks, the authorities persistently talk about the constant growth of the number of identified cases: on October 22-40 thousand sick, the 24th-45 thousand ... And although the numbers can be explained in many ways by the fact that the tests have become almost ten times more often than in the spring, the authorities now assure that the situation is still sharply deteriorating every day: the level of “positive” tests is growing: 4%-in September, 15%-15%-15%-15%. Now.

The greatest fear of the Covid-19 scientific council under the French government is the rapid filling of resuscitation departments,

Which has already led to postponing nonsense operations, and later it can cause a collapse, on the edge of which the French healthcare system was in March-April. Today, resuscitation is filled with covid patients almost half of the usual capacity (5800 resuscitation places) and about a third of the fact that the country, in principle, can deploy in an emergency (only 7700 seats). In March-April, almost all these seven thousands of resuscitation beds were occupied by people with heavy forms of Covid-19.

The argument about what terrible consequences can come to if the commandant’s time is not introduced now, Prime Minister Jean Castex used when criticism of opposition representatives that instead of a CC would have created additional places in hospitals. “What did the government do since May 11 ( *when the quarantine was removed. - *Yu. S. ) in order to increase the capacity of resuscitation?” -asked, for example, the head of socialist senators Patrick Kanner.

“I heard that a good answer would be the mass creation of new beds in intensive care instead of taking measures that restrain the spread of the epidemic. This is doubly incorrect. No hospital system will be able to withstand the consequences of such an epidemic that would lead to the hospitalization of tens of thousands of seriously ill patients, ”the prime minister answered. Well, in order to prevent “tens of thousands” of heavy cases, you have to take “restrictive measures”, he added.

“One anesthesiologist-resuscitator is eleven years of preparation,” added the head of the Ministry of Health of Olivier Veran, who stood next to the prime minister and several other “relevant” ministers at this first press conference, where the conditions of commandant's hour were explained.

Searches and masks

It was not easy for the Minister Veran to speak: a couple of hours before the press conference in his house, as well as searches in the office.

So far, there is nothing wrong with the Minister’s career and for the future of other “defendants” of the investigation: that morning, October 15, searches were carried out simultaneously in the apartments and offices of the director of the Main Directorate of Health of Zheir Salomon, General Director of the State Agency Santé Publique France Genevieve Sheng, ex-head of the Ministry of Health Avies Buzen, who former The official representative of the Sibeth of Nedia and the former Prime Minister Eduar Philip. And although theoretically it cannot be ruled out that

Philip, if he decides to become a candidate in the presidential election - 2022 just this investigation and will spoil the campaign,

But formally, the legal machine was launched for procedural reasons. The fact is that the judicial authorities are littered with statements from people and medical associations that accuse the authorities of improper actions (or inaction) in response to the coronavial crisis. Law enforcement officers must respond to claims.

Investigators of CRJ ( the court of the French Republic, which should investigate the activities of former or existing senior officials ), used several recognized applications for the search. Higher officials are suspected of inaction in a sanitary disaster. According to French law, up to 2 years in prison and up to 30 thousand euros of a fine can threaten for this.

In addition, a separate investigation is conducted by the Prosecutor's Office of Paris. Special commissions to investigate the issues of coronavirus crisis management have been created in both chambers of parliament.

Despite the abundance of investigations and the scale of the positions of the “defendants”, it is difficult to expect that one of them will be sentenced, even despite the fact that some of the measures they proposed initially looked absurd. In the spring, for example, both Prime Minister Philip and President Macron assured the citizens that “ordinary people” (i.e. not doctors) are not needed and can even be harmful - in protection against viral, we note, infection. Masks were worth its weight in gold. At this cost, they were delivered with a battle from China - but only for doctors. Then, two months later, when the goods began to appear in pharmacies, the authorities carefully spoke that the masks would not interfere, and demanded to wear them in transport (otherwise a fine). Now they demand not to remove masks even on the streets (otherwise, again, up to 3750 euros of a fine and six months of prison).

We need an example with masks in order to carefully evaluate the new decision of the French authorities - to introduce a commandant hour.

Is the commandant hour useful for the health of society

Probably, the CC will somehow reduce the number of infections-simply because people will walk less along the streets and meet teams in the evenings. But will the “sanitary effect” be so significant to spoil the life of tens of millions of people?

For that matter, restaurants are clogged with drinking citizens and up to 21 hours, you can get together with a company at home. Opponents of quarantine publish comparative photographs on social networks: on one - people walking alone on empty night Paris streets, on the other - crowded platforms and metro wagons in the daytime.

At the same time, by the way, no movement around the country is prohibited, and the State Railway Company SNCF calls on the inhabitants of France to travel in every possible way: it emphasizes that in connection with the coronavirus to pass or exchange tickets now for free at any time.

But the Supreme Administrative Court of France - the State Council - where several citizens and one association turned, considered that the CC is a legal measure, which is not a "obviously illegal confusion for the main freedoms." To substantiate his decision, the court gave the court of French Guiana, where, after the introduction of the commandant, the "infection coefficient" decreased somewhat somewhat. According to researchers from the Pasteur Institute, “the introduction of the CC and many other restrictive measures sent on a business trip, the French authorities allowed the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in Guiana”.

The question of whether it is possible to compare Giana with the mainland, Guiana-with Paris, Paris-with some commune for 500 people, remains open.

But the authorities, apparently, seemed to be easier to apply restrictions immediately to entire departments.

In fact, no one has yet proved that the measure is in principle any significantly effective, and the “example” of Gviana is scientifically not justified-in an interview with the publication of 20 minutes, an expert in the field of analysis of the management of sanitary risks Michelle Legeas-by the way, subordinating the Ministry of Health of the Higher Council of Public Health.

Given these arguments, so far the commandant hour looks like a measure of political than sanitary: the authorities should show citizens that they are knocking down a second wave.

The President of France personally in recent days with enviable regularity acts as a sanitary enlightener. On October 23, having traveled to the hospital of the Parisian suburbs, Macron sent fellow citizens a dozen tweets with anticoronavirus calls: “The virus does not spare anyone, even young people”; “No matter how much you have subscribers in social networks: 50, 100 or 1 million, your voice, your participation can save your life. Help us call everyone accountable: we will overcome this second wave only together ”; “Help us remind us that behind the terms“ contact case ”or“ positive ”(test) are the faces of our relatives, our friends, our colleagues. The virus is here, it circulates, and especially in the private sphere. ”

The latter statement is important for explaining new sanitary restrictions: not only commandant’s hours, but also the introduction of the so -called rural rules (it is officially forbidden to gather at one table for more than 6 people). The authorities regularly repeat that parties organized “in a close circle” carry the greatest danger, since in this case people “lose vigilance”.

The president recalled the importance of protecting with the help of masks: “Help us explain that wearing a mask, like all other protective measures, should become like fastening a seat belt in the car: a reflex for self -defense.”

However, there are few “non -humans” in public space.

Citizens are still disciplined by the commandant hour: yes, there were several protests with the participation of hundreds of people in Paris and other large cities, but mainly by nine in the evening the streets of large cities are silent. What is more - the consciousness or fear of the “seat belt”, which police and gendarmes can apply to undisciplined citizens - is difficult to say. Coarser pages show that most inhabitants of France approve of the introduction of the CC. At the same time, the scatter of numbers depending on the services conducting polls is extremely large - from 54 to 73%.

But tolerate for a long time - at least until December 1, so let's see what will happen next.

The commandant hour is for many another blow to the wallet.

Of course, the economic consequences of the CF will not be as large -scale as from quarantine, but now the Minister of Economy Bruno Le mayor appreciated the expenses of the French treasury to support the victims of this measure in “more than 2 billion euros”. Expenses are unlikely to cover all business losses that will be added to the previous heavy losses due to quarantine and the complete absence of tourists ( France visited over 70 million people a year-the first tournament of the world ). And no - even very generous, as in France - state assistance will not cover these losses. And then the treasury then you need to fill up at the expense of something.

But the French authorities, firstly, believe that against the background of the second wave, one must behave with citizens to the best of hard. Secondly, they remind: the second quarantine would bring even more losses.

"Word of war"

Bernar-Henri Levy, a well-known political philosopher, now close to Macron, is outraged about the commandant’s commandant: “For six months now, the French have been sending only electric shocks ... Do we need another one? Are the [all] French mentally ill who constantly need an electric shock? ” “The whole discourse is terribly anxioge. Nothing is done to give people hope. ” “The commandant hour is a terrible word, the word of war,” the philosopher noted.

But President Macron, after all, was building his discourse from the first days of the coronavirus crisis directly said:

“We are in war”, wrote down an appeal to the nation against the background of a military tent, in which several beds for patients with coronavirus were then indicatively placed

( The tents were turned soon ). Recently, the teacher Macron, by the way, has still softened the tone, turning to citizens.

He called them after visiting the hospital: “Help us [achieve] conscious acceptance of the fact that yes, the rejection of dinner or the weekend with friends does not please anyone, but this is temporary. To limit yourself now is the opportunity to hope to meet again soon. Provided that everyone will play a role. ”

Perhaps “the second wave will be worse than the first,” suggested the head of the Parisian state hospitals (AP-HP) Marten Hirsch.

“November will be a month of heavy trials,” Castex Prime Minister warned.