The intermediate results of the elections in the United States: the chances were equal, Trump outplayed forecasts, the result will not be soon

By 15:00 on November 4 in Moscow, the chances of Biden and Trump to win are approximately equal. The name of the new president we may not recognize until Friday

Elections in the United States were much more tense than November 3, the result of Donald Trump is much higher than the expectations, and there was no trace of Biden's advantage. By 15:00 Moscow time, both candidates retain approximately the same chances of victory. Trump is already promising to reach the Supreme Court. For markets, this is the most terrible script.

What happened

Already at about 4 in the morning in Moscow, the night after the elections, it became clear that the Landslide Victory script was not realized : Democrat lost the key Florida with her 29 votes of the electoral and could not perform a miracle in Texas with 38 - this state of his party was some hopes this year. But Bayden’s chances to win significantly increased the winnings of Arizona (11 votes), who had not voted for the candidate of the Democratic Party since 1996. By morning, the results in Arizona are almost in no doubt about Biden’s victory.

Trump, on the contrary, showed the results better than expectations: in addition to winning in Florida, he will most likely take Northern Carolina and most of the states of the Midwest, including Ohio (18 votes), who hoped to intercept Bayden. The fate of large Georgia will decide the counting of votes in the latest stages (at 10:00 Moscow time, the gap was 2.6 pp in favor of Trump, but the alignment of forces may change when voting by mail).

At 13:30, Biden drew 238 votes of electors with the required 270, Trump - 213 (according to Bloomberg ). The prosed, Fox gave the same numbers, the careful The New York Times has not yet counted Biden Arizona and gives him 227 votes.

According to most assessments, by this moment they finally decided on the choice of 43 states. The 44th, Alaska, will probably vote for Trump. The result was also not determined in one of the Districts of the state of Maine (gives 1 vocabulary vote). But the fate of the elections will be decided in the remaining six states, which give 83 votes of electors for all.

The decisive, most likely, will be four states:

• Pennsylvania (20 votes). As expected before the elections, this state, located at the junction of the depressed industrial “rusty belt” and the eastern coast. At 13:30, Trump has a decent advantage - 55.7% versus 43.1% in Biden with 64% of the processed votes. But the separation will be reduced - in Pennsylvania, postal voices are slowly considered, which Biden will have more. Bad news - the counting of votes in Pennsylvania can drag on until Friday, and the winner can remain unknown until this moment.
• Michigan (18). Usually, Michigan voting for the Democrats in 2016 helped defeat Trump. This time there is one of the most dense races. By 14:30 ahead of Trump (49.9% by 48.5%, 87% of the vote was processed), but this gap is reduced. Full results will not be fast - most likely, on Thursday night in Moscow.
• Wisconsin (10). Another traditionally democratic staff, which in 2016 selected Trump. Here the race is especially dense, and the results will be relatively early - during the day in Moscow. At about 13:00, Biden stepped forward (49.4% by 49.1%). The state has already processed 95% of the vote, the final results will be until the evening.
• Nevada (6). It is very important for Bayden to save Nevada, who in the last three elections voted for candidates from the Democratic Party. 6 votes are a little, but with some scenarios and they may be decisive. At 14:00, Bayden ahead - 49.2% by 48.6%.

There are not so many chances to find out the name of the winner before the counting in Pennsylvania. This can happen either if Biden takes both Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada - then he wins with 272 voices. Trump for victory without Pennsylvania must be taken by all the states in which he is now leading, always Michigan and, in addition, either Wisconsin or Nevada.

In two states - Georgia and North Carolina - calculated by 94% of the vote. Both of them, most likely, will go to Donald Trump, but there is still a probability of a miracle. In Georgia, the results will be in the afternoon in Moscow, and in North Carolin, the counting vote counts can be delayed until November 12.

In Maine, where the winner of the vote in the state (this is Biden) receives two votes, and two more winners in each of the two electoral districts, Trump has good chances to score one point. The remaining three are already behind Biden.

What's next

Both candidates have already expressed confidence in victory. Trump was the first to write on Twitter that the Democrats wanted to steal the election, and prepared to announce a “big victory”. And during his speech, he stated that he won not only individual states, including those where the votes were missed, but also all the elections, and was ready to go with the claims for the termination of the counting of the votes filed ahead of schedule to the Supreme Court. This is an extremely controversial statement: Bloomberg directly entitled his article based on the presidential statement “Trump falsely announced victory with the obscure outcome of the elections”.

Bayden, in contrast, in a very aged appeal to the supporters called for patience and recalled that victory was not when Trump announced about her, but when all the voices were calculated to the last ballot.

At 11:45, Biden drew 238 votes of electors with the required 270, Trump - 213 (Bloomberg), Fox gave the same numbers.

After Trump's appeal, it became obvious that the situation could develop according to the worst scenario of protracted calculations and trials with the involvement of the Supreme Court (in which the most of the Republicans are now). In the limit, she goes into the challenged elections.

Despite the fact that there is really a lot of republican red and pink in the electoral map , Biden’s chances are still preferable, writes Politico.

• Firstly, no matter what Trump claims, due to the unprecedentedly high share of early voting by mail, the results of Georgia (16 votes of electors) and North Carolina (15 votes) were not summarized. At least in the Georgia, the voices of city residents who allegedly voted behind Biden were not calculated, and his victory here practically resumes Trump's chances.
• Secondly, Trump loses to Arizona (so far this is the only state that the Democrats in these elections were taken from the Republicans) and is very likely losing Nevada. This means that his path to victory will not do without Pennsylvania, in which the Democrats have strong positions - Biden just expressed confidence that he would take Pennsylvania. On the WSJ website you can play options for the victory of a candidate.
• Thirdly, in all the three remaining key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), the results of the counting of early votes are the least predictable, and this uncertainty is always in favor of Bayden. Therefore, the current advantage of Trump (3.7 pp, 8.2 percentage points and 12.8 percentage points) may well dissolve in them. For example, the difference between candidates in Michigan is about 120 thousand, and the unrequited ballots only in Miluoi are more than 200 thousand, and most of them are almost guaranteed for Biden. And in Pennsylvania, more than a million ballots have not been calculated.

To win, in the current situation, Biden is enough of any of these states, provided that he will win Nevada, Trump is also two, but provided that he will win both Georgia and North Carolina. The results on Michigan and Wisconsin are expected on Wednesday (taking into account the difference in time), on Pennsylvania - on Friday.

The challenged elections that Trump are talking about is the worst option in which the loser refuses to recognize the defeat and disputes the results in courts of all levels. He is able to deprive the US stock market 20% of capitalization and drop markets around the world. Nevertheless, it is provided for by the US Constitution, which guarantees that in January 2021 the president will be in the country in one way or another. Details are complex and include procedures at the level of colleges of state electors, governors and federal authorities (most of all this was stated CNN, video in English).